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Monthly Archives: December 2012

Long Bond Rallying Five Times TIPS Gives Fed Room for QE4

“As investors sought a refuge from inflation in August amid concern about Federal Reserve efforts to prop up the U.S. economyDavid Brownlee was buying the securities most vulnerable to rising consumer prices.

Brownlee, who helps oversee $29 billion at Sentinel Asset Management, bought 30-year Treasuries, proved prescient as the Fed’s third round of monetary stimulus failed to ignite inflation. The government’s longest-maturity bonds gained 6.42 percent, compared with 1.37 percent for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, since the central bank said Sept. 13 that it would buy $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds.

While TIPS, whose principal rises and falls with the U.S. consumer price index, beat Treasuries that aren’t indexed to inflation in previous episodes of quantitative easing, or QE, this time is different. The bond market expects inflation to remaincontained for the next decade, giving Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and President Barack Obama time to boost the economy five years after the start of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

“Inflation is on the backburner until you see a strong economy,” Brownlee, the head of fixed-income at Sentinel Asset Management, said in a Dec. 7 interview from Montpelier, Vermont. “We take the Fed at its word that rates are going to be relatively low.”

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German Exports Unexpectedly Rose on Non-European Trade

“German exports unexpectedly rose in October as shipments to countries outside Europe offset weaker demand in the euro area.

Exports adjusted for work days and seasonal changes increased 0.3 percent from September, when they decreased 2.4 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent decline, according to the median of 14 estimates in aBloomberg News survey. Imports rose 2.5 percent from September.

While the German economy grew 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the euro area, Germany’s largest export market, succumbed to recession. Weaker demand from the 17-nation currency bloc will impact Germany, the Bundesbank said last week, predicting a contraction in the fourth quarter and stagnation in the first three months of 2013. Still, business confidence unexpectedly rose last month and factory orders, an indicator for future production, jumped 3.9 percent in October.

“The outlook may now be slowly improving with positive signals for Chinese and American growth, but the Eurozone recession is likely to continue to weigh on German exports,” saidChristian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. The rise in imports “does suggest resilience in domestic demand,” he said…”

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Chinese Group Buys 80% of AIG Plane Unit for $4.2 Billion

“A Chinese group agreed to buy 80.1 percent of American International Group Inc. (AIG)’s plane-leasing unit for $4.23 billion in the nation’s largest acquisition of a U.S. company.

The International Lease Finance Corp. acquirers, led by New China Trust Co. Chairman Weng Xianding, have an option to buy another 9.9 percent, New York-based AIG said today in a statement. The transaction, which values ILFC at $5.3 billion, passes China Investment Corp.’s $3 billion purchase of a stake in Blackstone Group LP (BX) in 2007 as the biggest Chinese-U.S. deal.

The acquisition gives the group control of the world’s second-largest aircraft lessor as rising travel in China and Asia spurs demand for planes. AIG, which counts the U.S. government as its largest investor, is selling the Los Angeles- based unit as Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche focuses on insurance operations and works to reduce debt….”

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Russia Cuts Ruble Swap Rate

Russia, the largest emerging economy to raise rates in 2012, took a step toward the first round of monetary easing in a year after the economy slowed and inflation stabilized.

Bank Rossii cut the cost to swap foreign currency into rubles by a quarter point to 6.5 percent, the Moscow-based central bank said in a statement on its website today. The regulator raised the deposit rate to 4.5 percent from 4.25 percent, effective tomorrow, and left its main lending rates unchanged, calling the moves “neutral” for monetary policy….”

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Canada Approves Two Chinese Takeovers in the Natty Gas Sector Paving the Way for Oil Sands

“Canada’s approval of two Asian takeovers worth $20 billion may spark more foreign acquisitions of natural gas producers in the country while capping state- owned control of Alberta’s oil sands.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper approved China-owned Cnooc’s Ltd.’s $15.1 billion bid for Nexen Inc. (NXY) and a C$5.2 billion ($5.2 billion) offer for Progress Energy Resources Corp. (PRQ) by Petroliam Nasional Bhd, Malaysia’s state-owned energy company on Dec. 7. At the same time, Harper unveiled foreign investment guidelines to prevent future takeovers of oil-sands companies by state-owned companies, except under “exceptional circumstances.”

“Canada is open for business but it’s not going to be a garage sale,” Robert Cooper, an analyst at Haywood Securities Inc., said by phone from Calgary. Cooper highlighted Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd. and Tourmaline Oil Corp. as takeover candidates in the gas sector. “If I was a betting man and that’s where you were in the markets, those names will catch a bid.”

The two takeovers tested Harper’s ability to balance the need to bolster economic relations with Asian economies without letting them gain too much influence over the world’s third- largest pool of proven oil reserves…”

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Japanese Whiskey Maker Explores an Acquisition of $BEAM

“Suntory Holdings Ltd., the closely held Japanese whiskey and beer maker, is exploring the possibility of making an offer for the U.S. distiller Beam Inc. (BEAM), according to an official of the Osaka-based company.

Suntory has held talks with Diageo Plc (DGE) about a potential joint offer, though the two aren’t currently in discussions and the Japanese company can make a bid by itself, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks were private.”

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European Markets Fall on Monti’s Resignation, Italian Bond Yields Climb

“European stocks fell from an 18- month high, the euro weakened and Italy’s bonds slid on concern a leadership change in the country will disrupt efforts to curb debt. Commodities gained as China’s factory output and retail sales beat analyst estimates.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent at 7:20 a.m. in New York, as Italy’s FTSE MIB sank the most in 10 weeks. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.2 percent. Italy’s 10-year bond yield had the biggest increase in more than four months. Austrian, Belgian and French borrowing costs slid to record lows while the euro depreciated against the dollar for a fourth day. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.1 percent. The S&P GSCI gauge of raw materials rose 0.4 percent, with copper advancing to a seven-week high.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he lost support and will resign, while his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, announced he will run for the premiership to roll back Monti’s budget rigor.Greece extended the deadline for a bond buyback that will release a bailout payment, the country’s debt agency said today. China’s factory output jumped 10.1 percent in November and retail sales rose 14.9 percent, reports showed yesterday.

“That Berlusconi is coming back clouds up the European political backdrop,” said Louis de Fels, a Paris-based fund manager at Raymond James Asset Management International, which oversees $35 billion worldwide. “This and the fiscal cliff explain the decline we are seeing today.”

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Japan Sinks Into Recession as Abe Calls for More Stimulus

Japan’s economy sank into recession in the second and third quarters, fueling opposition leader Shinzo Abe’s calls for more stimulus and highlighting the risk that weak growth will derail a planned sales-tax rise.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.5 percent in the three months through September, the Cabinet Office’s second estimate showed in Tokyo today, matching a preliminary reading. The government revised the previous quarter to a 0.1 percent contraction, meeting the textbook definition of a recession.

Abe, whose Liberal Democratic Party is leading in polls to win elections on Dec. 16, has called for more fiscal stimulus and “unlimited” monetary easing, and has said that economic conditions next year will determine whether the sales tax rise goes ahead. Banks including Citigroup Inc. forecast another contraction this quarter as exports fall and domestic demand stays weak.

“It’s likely that Japan’s economy hit bottom in the last quarter,” said Shuichi Obata, senior economist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo. “The new government will aim to have solid growth by the middle of next year as they have to decide whether to raise the sales tax or not.”

The yen was trading at 82.44 per dollar as of 2:57 p.m. in Tokyo, having weakened about 3.6 percent in the last month. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average was down 0.1 percent, paring gains of as much as 0.6 percent, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.4 percent….”

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The Aussie Dollar Pares Early Gains on China Data

Initially China had some good factory supply data which set the tone in early Asian trade. Markets and currencies rallied across the board. Later on China missed on  import/export data and markets along with risk currencies like the Aussie dollar fell.

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Commodity Bets Get Curtailed as Fiscal Cliff Looms

 

“Investors cut bullish commodity bets for the first time in three weeks as U.S. lawmakers appeared no closer to an agreement to avert more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts and Europe cut its growth outlook.

Speculators and money managers decreased net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 3.4 percent to 898,380 contracts in the week ended Dec. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold holdings fell 25 percent, the biggest drop since March, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the longest winning streak in at least nine decades will peak next year. Wheat bets fell for the second time in three weeks…”

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Intelligence Expert: West Making Big Money From War Threats

“Last week, the London Times, owned by Rupert Murdoch, a “stealth” Israeli citizen and powerful Likudist leader, ran a purposefully false news story. His “tale” involved the use by Israel of bases within Azerbaijan by drones to plan attacks on Iran.

Azerbaijan’s president quickly denied the report, pledged his solidarity with Iran and demanded a retraction. The Times had no source for the report. It was invented.

Sources tell us the story was run as part of a fraudulent manipulation of oil markets.
Billions were made in hours.

When the “denial” was published, billions more were made through illegal “shot selling.” ..”

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The Great California Tax Hoax: $577 Billion In Hidden Assets

” (NaturalNews) Is California really as bankrupt as its governor claims? Not if you believe in mathematics and accounting. As this story shows, California has hidden away $577 billion in assets, all revealed in CAFR documents (Comprehensive Annual Financial Report) that are becoming increasingly well-known.

California’s government, you see, has two main funds in which money is kept. The first fund, which is bankrupt, covers all government activities and expenditures. But the second fund — the hidden “slush” fund with $577 billion in assets — holds all the money the government generates by conducting “nongovernmental” businesses and activities that aren’t officially part of the government. This money is hidden from California’s taxpayers who are repeatedly lied to and told they have to pay more in taxes to prevent the state from going broke.

Click here to see a complete listing of all the nongovernmental funds that Californians aren’t being told about…..”

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Report: DOD Drafting Plans to Strike Syrian Chemical Weapon Targets

“Senior U.S. defense officials are drafting plans for a potential preemptive strike against government forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, prompted by concerns over the country’s chemical weapon stockpiles.

While information on the specific status of those weapons remains extremely fluid, recent U.S. intelligence showed Assad’s forces outfitting air-to-ground bombs with sarin gas at two airfields in Syria, according to CNN. ”

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You Can Go to the Moon if You Have $750 Million to Drop

On the heels of SpaceX’s vision of a human colony on Mars, here’s another idea for people who think of outer space the way the rest of us think of Hawaii: a space-tourism startup is selling trips to the moon at $750 million each.

The company, known as Golden Spike, actually has good pedigree: former NASA science administrator Alan Stern is working on the business. The plan is to repurpose space hardware for moon journeys, rather than build rockets from scratch, and to use the sort of commercial rockets we’ll be seeing more of in coming years. The passengers would get the trip, and a chance to walk on the moon, before returning home. (A two-person mission like that would cost about $1.5 billion, Stern told The Washington Post.) ”

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The John McAfee Saga Continues

Tony- I know all about the white man’s set up am glad you decided to talk to me Juni. You and I we are going to plan how to make a bomb so that it explodes on that mother fucker. Believe me Juni I know all of the men that are working for him. The one with a big belly got me fired . That was when me and the guy from Spanish town where there

.Juni- All of them are on your side right?

Tony- Yes they are, all of them are going to get that fucker. And Noel (Codd), that mother fucker, that same fucker is the one that called the white men and was told him things about me . That same big belly coolie guy told me that noel was passing information to the white man. One morning I got up an got on in the bus and that’s when the coolie guy told me that Noel has been telling the white men stuff.

(A girl enters near the conversation)

Juni- So yes miss Rosealin you act like you don’t know people any more.

Rosealin- Who are you talking to?

Tony- It’s junnie girl. Dorrothie, come here!

(Another womn enters near the conversation)

Dorothie-what do you want?

Tony- You’re passing by an acting like you don’t see me or hear me calling you. So, are you okay?

Dorothie – Yes, for now.

Tony- So my little friend here love’s you. To the other woman: Are you Ms. Gilbert

Rosealine Yes.

Tony- We all love you and don’t mean to offend you. You are turning back like we are offending you.

Juni – let her go out. Yes ms rose later.

Tony –cool it okay see what I mean. You I have one of those in my yard. I bought them from colmoyote. I heard it from a freind that someone gave it his freind to drink and by morning he was dead. If it was me that someone was fucking with I would want to barrow a gun from one of my buddies.

Juni- Where, over there?

Tony –No boy. Back of the pea tree. I am going to wait and as he come out am going to shoot him.

Juni-so you are saying you are going to wait for the white man by his gate right?

Tony-yes in the middle of the gate pointing straight at the glass. He is fucking with me man

juni- You are going straight to the (police) station

Tony – Cross that off. It is not to hard my friend

juni- Not at all

Tony-he is fucking with men out here and act like he is god he is going to get fucked. Because I was a BDF (Belizean Defense Force) I now have something that’s round. I could give it to you. you pull the pin like this. You walk pass the gate and when no one notices then you pull out the pin you turn it then a lot of them are going to get fucked. Once you pull the string and throw it, it will explode But the main man I want to fuck is him. The other guy is cool

Juni- Who is the other guy? Erik?

Tony- Yes, he his is cool. He is different.

Juni- yes he is a cool guy, you have seen the guy more than one time right.

Tony- yes I have seen him I had my gun on my shoulder me an him are good. But on other hand, Noel, that mother fucker, I want to fuck him up. He is the white man’s informer.

Juni -so here is the plan. For noel we are going to deal with him. With the white men we are going to plant the thing there then we are going to call the higher officials and tell them were the thing is planted. And then tell them about Noel as well, then there are both going to get fucked.

Tony- Don’t worry about anything

Juni- Boy look here!

Tony- Can you give me some paper (money)?

Juni -Sure here.

Tony- I want one more smoke dude I appreciate it ill see you later junnie.

Juni -okay

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