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Monthly Archives: December 2012

Final PMI in China Shows a Turn Around in Manufacturing

China’s manufacturing unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months in December, boosting optimism that a recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy is gaining traction.

The final reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.5 in December, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compares with the 50.9 preliminary reading on Dec. 14 and a final 50.5 in November. A level above 50 indicates expansion.”

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Hedge Funds Reduce Bullish Bets Into New Year

Hedge funds cut bullish commodity bets to a six-month low as mounting concern that slowing economic growth will erode demand drove prices toward the first fourth-quarter retreat since the global recession.

Speculators reduced net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 11 percent to 675,625 million contracts in the week ended Dec. 24, the lowest since June 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Gold holdings reached a four-month low, while those for copper dropped for the first time in five weeks. Investors are the most bearish onnatural gas since May.”

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The Aussie Dollar Gets One Final Rally to Close Out the Year

 

“The Australian dollar held an advance this year as a private gauge showed manufacturing expanded more than economists forecast in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner.

The so-called Aussie and its New Zealand counterpart climbed versus most of their major peers before data this week that analysts say will indicate an expansion in U.S. factory output. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the chamber will resume a session today in an attempt to avoid more than $600 billion in tax increases and federal spending cuts set to start taking effect in January in the world’s biggest economy.

“The global backdrop paints a relatively favorable picture for the Aussie dollar,” said Gavin Stacey, the chief interest- rate strategist in Sydney at Barclays Plc. “It’s hard to envisage a selloff for the Aussie when the global manufacturing backdrop is in an improving mode.”

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Credit Growth Gains in South Africa as Record Low Rates are Kept in Play

 

“South African credit demand strengthened in November as the central bank kept interest ratesat the lowest in more than 30 years to spur spending.

Borrowing by households and companies rose 9.6 percent compared with 8.4 percent in October, the Pretoria-based Reserve Bank said on its website today. The median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for growth of 8.4 percent.

The Reserve Bank last month left its benchmark lending rate at 5 percent to help support growth in Africa’s largest economyConsumer spending, which makes up about 60 percent of demand, has come under strain this year as the jobless rate rose to 25.5 percent and the economy expanded at its slowest pace since a 2009 recession in the third quarter.

Growth may still be “very low” in the final three months of the year, central bank Governor Gill Marcus said on Nov. 28. The bank is forecasting 2.5 percent expansion this year, down from 3.5 percent in 2011…”

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Emerging Stocks Climb for Sixth Day on China Output

“Emerging-market stocks rose, set to finish 2012 with a sixth day of gains, as Chinese manufacturing data beat estimates and the deadline approached for U.S. lawmakers to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Chinese industrial companies such as Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co. rallied after the manufacturing data. China Life Insurance Co. (601628) jumped to a 16-month high in Hong Kong after the nation’s securities watchdog said insurers would be allowed to set up mutual funds. Lenovo Group Ltd. (992), the world’s biggest maker of personal computers, fell for a second day to a five- week low after its chief executive officer cut his stake.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) added 0.1 percent to 1,056.31 as of 4:57 p.m. in Hong Kong to its highest level since March, extending this year’s gains to 15 percent. China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in December, beating a preliminary estimate, according to a survey released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. The U.S. Congress is working to avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and federal spending cuts, the so-called fiscal cliff, as the year-end deadline approaches.

“The data shows recovery in the Chinese economy and that’s positive for industrial and metal producers,” said Alex Mathews, head of research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd. in Kochi, South India. “Most traders have their eyes on the U.S. fiscal cliff and how it unfolds. With most markets closed, most investors are in a holiday mood.”

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All Roads Lead to Easing, Japan Takes Offense to Criticism

It seems that no matter what you read these days, it all leads to stimulus, QE, and general easing. Japan made a comment about the G20: “Foreign countries have no right to lecture us,” and this will some how lead to more easing.

 

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Oregon Bus Crash Kills 9

PORTLAND, Oregon (Reuters) – Nine people were killed and at least 26 others injured on Sunday when a charter bus headed to Canada from Las Vegas skidded off an icy mountain highway and crashed down an embankment in northeastern Oregon.

The Oregon State Police said a preliminary investigation showed the charter bus, carrying about 40 people through the Blue Mountains en route to Vancouver, British Columbia, “lost control on the snow/ice covered westbound lanes of Interstate 84” near Pendleton.

The bus crashed through a guardrail alongside the road and went down an embankment of around 200 feet. Crews trained in rope rescue were needed to bring victims back up to the highway, police said.

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Box Office Milestone: Daniel Craig’s ‘Skyfall’ Crosses $1 Billion Worldwide

The newest James Bond installment has grossed more than $1 Billion dollars since opening up in Theaters. The third 007 movie featuring Daniel Craig, is also the third movie to hit the Billion dollar mark this year following behind comic book movies the Avengers and the Dark Knight Rises.

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Researcher: Poor St. Louis Minorities Targeted for Secret Cold War Chemical Testing

“ST. LOUIS, Mo. (KMOX) – A St. Louis researcher says she’s discovered proof that poor, minority neighborhoods in St. Louis were unwittingly part of Cold War chemical studies.

The aerosol was sprayed from blowers installed on rooftops and mounted on vehicles. ”The Army claims that they were spraying a quote ‘harmless’ zinc cadmium sulfide,” says Dr. Lisa Martino-Taylor, Professor of Sociology, St. Louis Community College. Yet Martino-Taylor points out, cadmium was a known toxin at the time of the spraying in the mid 50′s and mid 60′s. Worse, she says the aerosol was laced with a fluorescent additive – a suspected radiological compound – produced by U.S. Radium, a company linked to the deaths of workers at a watch factory decades before.

Martino-Taylor says thousands upon thousands of St. Louis residents likely inhaled the spray. ”The powder was milled to a very, very fine particulate level.  This stuff travelled for up to 40 miles.  So really all of the city of St. Louis was ultimately inundated by  the stuff.”

Martino-Taylor says she’s obtained documents from multiple federal agencies showing the government concocted an elaborate story to keep the testing secret. “There was a reason this was kept secret.  They knew that the people of St. Louis would not tolerate it.” She says part of the deception came from false news reports planted by government agencies.  “And they told local officials and media that they were going to test clouds under which to hide the city in the event of aerial attack.” Martino-Taylor says some of the key players in the cover-up were also members of the Manhattan Atomic Bomb Project and involved in other radiological testing across the United States at the time. “This was against all military guidelines of the day, against all ethical guidelines, against all international codes such as the Nuremberg Code.”

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[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlH6srJPDoo 450 300]

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Piers Morgan: If America won’t change its crazy gun laws…I may deport myself

“I have fired guns only once in my life, on a stag party to the Czech capital Prague a few years ago when part of the itinerary included a trip to an indoor shooting range. For three hours, our group were let loose on everything from Magnum 45 handguns and Glock pistols, to high-powered  ‘sniper’ rifles and pump-action shotguns.

It was controlled, legal, safe and undeniably exciting. But it also showed me, quite demonstrably, that guns are killing machines.

Rarely has the hideous effect of a gun been more acutely laid bare than at Sandy Hook elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut, two weeks ago – when a deranged young man called Adam Lanza murdered 20 schoolchildren aged six and seven, as well as six adults, in a sickening rampage…”

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Obama Will “Put His Full Weight” Behind Gun Control in 2013

“President Obama on Sunday said he would make gun control a priority in his new term, pledging to put his “full weight” behind passing new restrictions on firearms in 2013.

“I’m going to be putting forward a package and I’m going to be putting my full weight behind it,” Obama said in an interview aired on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “I’m going to be making an argument to the American people about why this is important and why we have to do everything we can to make sure that something like what happened at Sandy Hook Elementary does not happen again.”

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An Oil Renaissance Begins, $45 Oil on Tap

“In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that matter. This phrase was first proposed regarding the potential Nuclear turnaround here in the US, where companies like NRG Energy, Toshiba and many more players all along the supply chain were positioning themselves for the Nuclear Renaissance of cheap, and abundant Nuclear energy for the next 50 years.

Well, the natural disaster in Japan changed that movement in the span of a week of just untenable radioactivity readings coming out of Japan. An already uphill battle for changing public sentiment towards the dangers of nuclear energy became an impractical fight from an investment standpoint that relied upon large DOE loan guarantees to attract private investment.

It is ironic, but all these companies spent a lot of time and effort from lobbying to developing strategic partnerships with each other, and in the end, most of that 7 year effort had to be written off by firms. It really shows how firms have to get the industry right; Oil was so much the smarter play. Higher margins, better technology, much easier safety hurdles, and even the environmental fight is much more manageable.

Not to mention the number of jobs created is far more with an Oil Renaissance as opposed to a Nuclear Renaissance, even with a complete buildup of the entire nuclear supply chain. Nuclear projects are just not scalable like oil projects are from a numbers standpoint due to the regulation, lead times for components, inspection, build times, and many more constraints….”

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$XLY, $XLP, & $NDX Suggest a Potential Bear Market Ahead

“The US market opened lower to start the week, continued lower for much of the holiday shortened week, and ended giving back all of last week’s gains. For the week the SPX/DOW -1.9%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.1%. Asian markets gained 1.8%, European markets lost 0.7%, and the DJ World index lost 0.7%. On the economic front positive reports continued to outnumber negative reports: 7 to 2. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, new/pending home sales, new home prices, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: consumer confidence, and the monetary base. Next week the monthly Payrolls report, ISM and Auto sales. Best your week!

With the bull market stumbling we decided to take a look at the leading sectors that have supported this bull market. Leading sectors shift from one group to another group in alternating bull markets. This bull market’s leaders have been the Techs and Industrials, naturally, plus Consumer discretionary (XLY) and staples (XLP).

Typically when a bull market nears its end, the leading sectors are usually displaying five wave patterns up, from the bear market lows, and then start to head lower. A quick review of XLY, XLP and the NDX for techs displays this potential pattern. The industrial DOW will follow shortly…”

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Top 10 Developing Stories of 2013

“Where will the major stories of 2013 be? If your country begins with an I, the chances are it is having elections. Otherwise you can look forward to the year of the snake, the start of Barack Obama’s second term and a grand Irish homecoming. Oh, and the 100th anniversary of the crossword puzzle…”

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GOP Adopts a Fiscal Cliff Poison Pill

“As you can see in our Fiscal Cliff liveblog the negotiations are at an impasse, reportedly because the Republicans have tossed in a demand that Social Security benefits be cut.

They don’t actually call it a “cut” but rather a change to how benefits are indexed. Currently benefits rise every year in step with CPI. The GOP wants it to rise in step with an alternative measure of inflation called the Chained CPI. Dylan Matthews at Wonkblog has a good in-depth explanation of how the Chained CPI works, but the gist is that the Chained CPI tries to take more into account how people substitute cheaper/inferior products when the price of their preferred goods rise…”

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