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“Paul Farrell observes that 95% of traders don’t make it. 80% of all day traders lose money. One study found active investors turn over their portfolios excessively (258% annually) but made less than 12% on their money. Passive buy-and-hold investors with only 2% portfolio turnover had significantly better returns.

And, most day traders suffer negative health consequences from their hyper active market moves.

To find out what your trading instincts mean — to grade your own Traders Psychological Profile — answer the following questions Yes or N:”

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“Mohamed El-Erian says it’s important to distinguish between what central banks can deliver and what they are incapable of doing.

“In the context of today’s complex crisis in Europe, these critical institutions have essentially been reduced to the role of fire brigades,” El-Erian, chief executive of Pacific Investment Management Co., writes in the Financial Times. “They can try to reduce the risk of a fire and, should one occur, stand ready to fight it and contain damage.”

“But, acting on their own, they are unable to alter materially the behavior of those who place whole neighborhoods at risk.”

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“BEIJING—China is expected to soon kick-start a trial program that would allow banks to turn loans into securities and free up funds for lending at a time when Beijing is seeking ways to bolster growth.

The securitization program could remove as much as 50 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) worth of loans from balance sheets, according to senior Chinese banking executives. Endorsed by China’s banking regulators and the Ministry of Finance, it represents another step in China’s efforts to revamp its creaky financial system into one that relies more on market forces.

It also comes as Chinese authorities are stepping up efforts to fight a deepening economic slowdown amid the intractable European debt crisis, which has hurt China’s exports. Early this month, China cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, and loosened controls on banks’ lending and deposit rates.”

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“Citi’s economics team led Willem Buiter and Michael Saunders made some noise late last week when they wrote that Greece would exit the euro on January 1, 2013.

Despite the results of this weekend’s Greek elections, which favors bailouts, austerity, and the euro, Citi continues to believe Greece is likely to exit the euro.

Here’s a clip from the published by Citi’s Jurgen Michels:”

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David Rosenberg is out with a plethora of chart porn showing where investors stand in regards to volatility .

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Hockey stick time. Now if wafer pricing would only stabilize and climb we could have a good long term opportunity.

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“Morgan Stanley senior European economist Daniele Antonucci writes in a note today that while the results of Sunday’s Greek election may provide temporary relief, internal politics will weigh on external politics in Greece over the medium term.

The close race between the “pro-EU” and the “anti-bailout” parties showed that Greek voters are both afraid of the economic consequences of a Greek exit from the euro, and opposed to the crushing austerity measures that comprise the terms of the current Greek rescue plan.”

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“Goldman’s Themos Fiotakis and Huw Pill have a note out about the Greek election, and we think this paragraph basically perfectly nails the situation today:

Overall, Greece will remain a source of uncertainty due to its macro-dynamics. The country is undergoing extreme economic pressures that are likely above and beyond austerity; prolonged uncertainty have led to a multi-year suppression in confidence and a collapse in credit growth,”

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Gapping up

XG +55.6%, NBG +6.6%, GRPN +4.4%, UPL +4.1%, NOK +1.6%, SYT +1.2%,  DDD +1.3% ,  IGT +1.1% ,

PAY +2.6% ,  STJ +1.3% , NBR +1% ,  ARNA +3.6%,

Gapping down

INFI -20.7%, DSW -8.2%, SAN -2.9%, ING -2.7%, DB -1.7%, BCS -1.6%, UBS -1.6%, CS -1.5%,

HERO -2.6%, RMBS -1.6%, YELP -4.4%,  DSW -13.3%, STLD -4.9%, BODY -24.6%

CELG, CPHD, EBAY, EOG, GRPN, HUN, LLTC, NOV, NE, NOK, RMBS, SRE, PAY, WPI,

Full report

Europe gave back a huge rally and is now diving.

In play ,

On the wires

“A relief rally that gathered steam on Monday lasted less than an hour in Europe as investors weighed a Greek election result seen as reducing the risk of a euro exit against concerns over Spain’s high levels of debt.

Analysts told CNBC.com the collapse of the relief rally was hardly a surprise, and blamed at least four different factors. They singled one out in particular: lack of leadership in Europe.”

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A third round of quantitative easing is coming this Wednesday, top Société Générale economist Michala Marcussen says.

Marcussen writes that if anything, the boost will help “only at the margins.”

“We have long held the view that each new round of QE comes with diminishing returns,” she says. “We nonetheless see the impact as positive – if nothing else giving the reassurance of a pilot in the plane.”
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Not so fun times in Greece to say the least. Bailout funds are dwindling and banks runs continue in a orderly fashion.

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Contributing to the woes in Europe in a majority win for socialists in France. The win gives Hollande an upper hand who is decidedly against bailouts and Frnace being a shoulder for weaker countries to lean on.

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The Aussie and Kiwi dollars rallied in a risk on trade after Greece had a majority vote won by a pro bailout party. According to traders the currencies were deeply over sold as of last week.

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Oil dropped in New York as rising Spanish borrowing costs pushed the dollar higher, curbing demand for commodities.

Futures fell as much as 1.1 percent in New York after the Spanish 10-year bond yield rose to a euro-era record of 7.13 percent. Greece’s New Democracy and Pasok parties won enough seats to form a majority in the 300-member parliament, according to an official projection. Money managers cut bullish oil wagers for a sixth week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders Report.

“Investors should remain cautious until Greece forms a government that could stabilize the markets for the short-medium term,” Myrto Sokou, an analyst at Sucden Financial Ltd. in London, said by e-mail.”

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The G-20 is currently meeting in Mexico to discus among many things how to contain Europe’s debt problems. The G-20 has agreed to boost the firewall fund through the IMF, but does not seem to be fully committed to giving up full support to control Europe’s problems. Multiple leaders expressed concerns and begged Europe to get their act together.

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