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Monthly Archives: April 2012

BOFA: One Of The Best Stock Market Indicators Out There Is Screaming Buy

Source

“So, what’s next for stocks after the best quarter in 14 years?

Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian thinks they could head up much further.

According to the firm’s proprietary Sell Side Indicator, strategists’ bullishness receded in March to 55.8, marking the sixth decline in eight months.

From Subramanian’s note to clients:

With the S&P 500’s indicated dividend yield near 2%, that implies a 12-month price return of 12% and a 12-month value of 1580. Although this is not our official S&P 500 target, this model is an input into our target, which incorporates valuation, sentiment and technicals. Historically, when our indicator has been this low or lower, total returns over the subsequent 12 months have been positive 93% of the time, with median 12-month returns of +23%.

To be clear, this is a contrarian indicator:

The Sell Side Indicator is based on the average recommended equity allocation of Wall Street strategists as of the last business day of each month. We have found that Wall Street’s consensus equity allocation has historically been a reliable contrary indicator. In other words, it has historically been a bullish signal when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa.

Subramanian’s official current year-end target for the S&P 500 is 1,400.

Here’s a chart from Subramanian’s report:

 

chart

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Largest Bond Traders Say the Worst is Over

“The worst is over for the $10 trillion U.S. Treasury market following the biggest quarterly rout since 2010, say Wall Street’s largest bond trading firms.

After rising to as high as 2.4 percent last month from 1.88 percent at the end of 2011, the yieldon the benchmark 10-year note will finish 2012 at 2.49 percent, according to the average estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of the 21 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. That’s the same as a January poll, suggesting the market isn’t ready to declare a bear market in bonds after a 30-year bull run…”

Full article

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Market Update

Crude and precious metals rallied in recent trade, while the dollar index only drifted lower.

In the energy space, May crude oil gained steam about an hour ago and rallied from just above the $102 level to a new session high of $103.50/barrel. In current trade, crude has pulled back, but just modestly and is now +0.4% a t$103.432/barrel.

Apr natural gas began to sell-off around 8am ET, which pulled nat gas into negative territory and down over 3% to a new session low of $2.07. The energy component has since erased more than half of its losses and is -0.9% at $2.11/MMBtu.

In metals, Apr gold and May silver rallied sharply in recent trade to new session highs (Gold $1679.90, Silver $33.07), only partially driven by the dollar index. The index is still in positive territory, but has been drifting lower for just over an hour now. In current trade, both precious metals remain near their session highs. Gold is +0.5% at $1678.10/oz and silver is +1.8% at $33.06/oz.DJ30 -2.65 NASDAQ +7.08 SP500 +2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1291/430 mln/1026 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1841/160 mln/985

Market Update

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Pension Funds Fail @ Risk On

“Searching for higher returns to bridge looming shortfalls, public workers’ pension funds across the country are increasingly turning to riskier investments in private equity, real estate and hedge funds.

But while their fees have soared, their returns have not. In fact, a number of retirement systems that have stuck with more traditional investments in stocks and bonds have performed better in recent years, for a fraction of the fees.

Consider the contrast between the state retirement fund for Pennsylvania and the one for Georgia.

The $26.3 billion Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System has more than 46 percent of its assets in riskier alternatives, including nearly 400 private equity, venture capital and real estate funds.

The system paid about $1.35 billion in management fees in the last five years and reported a five-year annualized return of 3.6 percent. That is below the 8 percent target needed to meet its financing requirements, and it also lags behind a 4.9 percent median return among public pension systems.

In Georgia, the $14.4 billion municipal retirement system, which is prohibited by state law from investing in alternative investments, has earned 5.3 percent annually over the same time frame and paid about $54 million total in fees. The two funds represent the extremes, with Pennsylvania in a group of pension systems with some of the highest percentages of investments in alternatives and Georgia in a group of 10 with some of the lowest, according to groupings of funds identified by the London-based research firm Preqin.

An analysis of the sampling presents an unflattering portrait of the riskier bets: the funds with a third to more than half of their money in private equity, hedge funds and real estate had returns that were more than a percentage point lower than returns of the funds that largely avoided those assets. They also paid nearly four times as much in fees.

While managers for the retirement systems say that a five-year period is not long enough to judge their success, those fees nevertheless add up to hundreds of millions of dollars each year for some of the country’s largest pension funds. The $51.4 billion Pennsylvania public schools pension system, for instance, which has 46 percent of its assets in riskier investments, pays more than $500 million a year in fees. It has earned 3.9 percent annually since 2007…..”

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Today’s 52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

New Highs 42 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Altria Group Inc              MO          31.18            1,482,249 
Amer Vanguard                 AVD         22.00               73,641 
Amphenol                      APH         60.20              140,731 
BlackRock Inc                 BLK         209.37              74,069 
Bluegreen Corp                BXG         4.35                10,080 
Brookfield Infrastructure     BIP         31.88              132,321 
Brown Forman B                BF/B        84.28               17,025 
Cervecerias Compania          CCU         81.03                4,084 
Coca-Cola Femsa               KOF         106.70               8,241 
Colgate-Palmolive             CL          98.33              302,480 
CompanhiaSBEDP                SBS         77.26               33,188 
Credicorp                     BAP         132.81              31,751 
Digital Realty Trust          DLR         74.17               55,263 
Essex Property Trust          ESS         152.00              52,050 
F M C Corp                    FMC         107.76              97,031 
Fomento Economico             FMX         84.19              154,481 
Gabelli Hlthcr & Well         GRX         8.35                   993 
GenCorp                       GY          7.21               159,049 
Global Cash Access            GCA         7.85                87,662 
H&Q Life Sciences             HQL         13.88               13,281 
Hels High Income Fund         HIH         8.94                 3,463 
Hersha Hosp Tr 8% A           HTpA        25.76                1,697 
Hitachi Ltd                   HIT         66.13               25,133 
IBM                           IBM         209.15             403,918 
Kayne Andrsn Midstr Engy      KMF         27.60                9,325 
Kenexa                        KNXA        32.95               57,227 
Kimberly-Clark                KMB         74.48              231,331 
MaquarieInfrastr              MIC         35.00              227,873 
Medco Health                  MHS         75.02                2,922 
Medley Cap Sr. Notes 2019     MCQ         25.18                2,500 
NextEra Energy                NEE         61.89              367,799 
Nuveen Ohio Qual Income       NUO         17.87                5,025 
Nuv Tax-Adv Div Gr            JTD         13.84               12,758 
Philip Morris Intl            PM          89.27              560,804 
Primus Telecommunications     PTGI        16.26                6,511 
Rentech Nitrogen Ptrs LP.     RNF         28.26               19,435 
Rexnord Corp                  RXN         21.86              103,776 
Roundys                       RNDY        11.84            2,688,959 
Schiff Nutrition Intl         WNI         13.27               30,753 
Sempra Energy                 SRE         60.71              243,992 
Stewart Info Svcs             STC         14.44               19,025 
TJX Cos                       TJX         39.99              731,238 

New Lows 8 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Equal Energy                  EQU         3.73                   480 
Halcon Resources              HK          9.12               123,219 
Kilroy Realty Corp Pfd G      KRCpG       24.77                5,600 
Matador Resources             MTDR        10.61               66,863 
Millennial Media Inc          MM          22.05              173,830 
NRG Energy                    NRG         15.45              302,021 
Promotora de Info ADS         PRIS        2.76                23,022 
Supervalu                     SVU         5.60             1,367,456

NASDAQ

New Highs 23 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Agenus                        AGEN        6.95               143,071 
Array BioPharma               ARRY        3.48               190,611 
Caribou Coffee Co             CBOU        18.84               50,478 
CrownCrafts                   CRWS        5.47                 6,688 
Dynavax Techs                 DVAX        5.09               248,147 
Edgewater Tech                EDGW        4.03                 8,100 
Euronet Worldwide             EEFT        21.05               52,346 
First Bus Fincl Services      FBIZ        19.43                  343 
Flexsteel Industries          FLXS        18.49                3,950 
Heritage Oaks Bancorp         HEOP        5.24                 3,696 
Hooker Furniture              HOFT        13.91                3,912 
Kaiser Federal Finl Grp       KFFG        14.00               74,692 
MidWestOne Fincl Group        MOFG        19.40                  355 
Monarch Community Bancorp     MCBF        1.93                 3,863 
O'Reilly Automotive           ORLY        91.97              110,587 
Old Line Bancshrs             OLBK        10.83                1,242 
Peapack Gladstone             PGC         13.60                  870 
Santarus                      SNTS        5.97                56,202 
Smith & Wesson Hldg           SWHC        8.09               681,809 
Telik                         TELK        3.80                39,850 
Towerstream                   TWER        5.86             1,701,423 
21st Century Hldg             TCHC        4.74                 4,268 
United Bancorp                UBCP        9.87                 1,922 

New Lows 10 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
A123 Sys Inc                  AONE        1.03             1,436,094 
AEterna Zentaris              AEZS        0.70            10,665,820 
Education Management          EDMC        13.26               55,992 
EnerNOC                       ENOC        7.08                19,774 
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals      KERX        1.65             8,231,008 
MDC Partners  (Cl A)          MDCA        10.91               15,222 
Pinnacle Airlines             PNCL        0.50               928,589 
Plug Power                    PLUG        1.25               102,695 
SmartHeat                     HEAT        2.57                 3,054 
WisdomTree Emg Mkts Corp      EMCB        74.86                3,438

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KOTOK: The Public Sector Will ‘Crush The Private Sector’ And ‘Hope Will Be Lost’

“The latest note from Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok is pretty heavy.  In it he demonstrates that current market conditions couldn’t be further from any sort of normalcy, new or old.

Rather, a complete “idea shift” has occurred:

“The old idea was that the official sector would intervene, rebalance the system, and then exit.  The old idea was to get the private sector back in the game quickly.  The old idea was to recover the official money and then let the market resume its functions of pricing and clearing and providing capital.

“The old idea is dead.”

The new idea involves an intrusive market role for the “official sector” — governments, intergovernmental organizations, supranational organizations. Think ECB, IMF — even GSEs, which Kotok notes are single-handedly supporting housing finance (although as we pointed out last week, it’s technically Treasury that’s fulfilling this role).

“The new idea is to crush the private sector and to keep the official sector in the game for a prolonged period,” he writes.

Under the “old idea” regime, such intervention would likely have resulted in inflation and weak currency. Kotok says these may yet come to pass — but it will take a while. because “officialdom” will remain in the market for an indefinite period of time….”
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Diageo Hires Banks for Jose Cuervo Talks

“Diageo Plc (DGE), the world’s largest liquor maker, appointed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (GS) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) for advice on gaining control of Jose Cuervo from family owners, people familiar with the plans said.

Cuervo, owned by Mexico’s Beckmann family, is expected to be valued at more than $3 billion and family sellers may gain cash or shares in Diageo as part of the deal, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private….”

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This Morning’s Biggest Advances and Decliners

Source

Avon Products Inc.’s AVP +18.13%  shares rallied 19% to $23.05 after the seller of beauty products confirmed an unsolicited bid of about $10 billion, or $23.25 a share, from Coty Inc., but said it rejected the offer.

Express Scripts Inc.’s ESRX +4.30%   shares rose 4.8% and Medco Health Solutions Inc. MHS +2.01%   rose 2% after the Federal Trade Commission cleared their merger.

Winner Medical Group Inc.’sWWIN +19.70%  U.S.-listed shares rose 20% to $4.08 a piece after the Chinese exporter of medical dressings and other products made of cotton said its chairman and chief executive officer offered to take the company private for $4.30 a share.

Decliners

AVI BioPharma Inc.’s AVII -18.83%   shares declined 20% to $1.23 each after a small trial of its potential drug to treat muscular dystrophy met its goal of raising a protein level, yet failed to show impact on the ability to walk.

Groupon Inc.’s GRPN -11.86%   shares slid nearly 12% after Stifel Nicolaus downgraded the online-coupon company to sell from hold. Groupon late Friday said it was revising first-quarter results after realizing it had not reserved enough to cover customer refunds.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc.’s KERX -65.59%   shares dived 66% to $1.68 a piece after it and Canadian biotech company Aeterna Zentaris Inc. CA:AEZ -65.42%   said their experimental treatment for colorectal cancer failed to meet the main goal in a late-stage study.

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Most Active Options Trades

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
CHK        4/5/12          23.0000        5075            0.4900      dn 0.0400 
REE        4/21/12          7.0000        2645            0.2500      dn 0.0400 
TZA        4/21/12         15.0000        2313            3.0500      up 0.4000 
AAPL       4/5/12         610.0000        2291            6.0000      up 1.7500 
AAPL       4/5/12         615.0000        2202            3.8500      up 0.8700 
FCX        4/5/12          39.0000        2086            0.4400      up 0.0800 
AAPL       4/5/12         600.0000        1824           11.9000      up 3.6000 
AAPL       4/5/12         620.0000        1807            2.4600      up 0.4600 
RMD        5/19/12         35.0000        1758            0.3200      up 0.1200 
AAPL       4/21/12        600.0000        1661           19.9400      up 3.0900 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       4/5/12         600.0000        1848            4.5500      dn 4.0500 
AAPL       4/5/12         580.0000         875            1.1000      dn 1.4800 
AAPL       4/5/12         595.0000         863            3.1800      dn 3.3700 
AAPL       4/5/12         605.0000         860            6.3000      dn 5.0500 
GRPN       4/21/12         15.0000         808            0.6000      up 0.4000 
AAPL       4/5/12         590.0000         754            2.1800      dn 2.5700 
CNX        4/21/12         37.0000         749            2.6400      dn 0.6100 
GE         4/5/12          20.0000         731            0.1900      up 0.0600 
BP         4/5/12          35.0000         697            0.0100      dn 0.0200 
AAPL       4/5/12         610.0000         681            8.8000      dn 5.7500 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
226905    181836        408741
-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       4/5/12         605.0000         149            8.6500      up 2.6000 
AAPL       4/21/12        620.0000         145           11.4000      up 2.9000 
AMZN       7/21/12        225.0000         118            4.7000      dn 1.4500 
AAPL       4/5/12         610.0000         113            6.1000      up 1.8400 
ANR        4/21/12         16.0000         110            0.5800      up 0.1000 
CHK        4/21/12         24.0000         109            0.3700      dn 0.0600 
AAPL       4/21/12        650.0000         102            3.3500      up 0.5500 
AAPL       4/21/12        600.0000          87           20.6000      up 3.7000 
AAPL       4/5/12         620.0000          84            2.4500      up 0.4800 
BAC        4/21/12          9.0000          79            0.6300      dn 0.1100 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
NFLX       5/19/12        105.0000         431            6.9000      up 0.2500 
NFLX       5/19/12         85.0000         431            1.8000      dn 0.0600 
RIMM       4/21/12         13.0000         105            0.2100      dn 0.0300 
AMD        4/21/12          5.5000          96            0.0100      up 0.0000 
RIMM       5/19/12          9.0000          93            0.0500      up 0.0000 
AAPL       4/5/12         600.0000          90            4.5000      dn 4.2000 
BRCD       7/21/12          4.0000          90            0.0500      up 0.0000 
AAPL       4/5/12         605.0000          87            6.1900      dn 5.0100 
RIMM       4/5/12           9.0000          79            0.0100      up 0.0000 
MCP        9/22/12         40.0000          78           11.0500      dn 1.1000 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
10628    11611        22239

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Lockheed Martin Makes the Cut Despite Military Spending Cuts

“Despite cuts to next year’s military budget, weapons merchant Lockheed Martin did very well for itself in the Obama administration’s proposed spending plans. Although Lockheed took a big hit to its main franchise, the $400 billion F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the administration confirmed a goal of 2,443 fighters, refusing to reduce or cancel any of the versions being developed for three different military services. Soon, Lockheed will be the only company producing fighters in the U.S.

Lockheed was also successful in defending several other weapons programs, including its C-130J Super Hercules transport, which will be the only fixed-wing airlifter being produced in the next decade; photo-reconnaissance satellites and spacecraft generally; the Aegis naval combat system; and the Littoral Combat Ship, a shallow-water warship that Lockheed Martin has invested in heavily….”

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Express Scripts and Medco Complete Their Merger

“The $29.1 billion merger between Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) and Medco Health Solutions Inc. has been cleared by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the companies have announced that the completion of the merger. The merger was allowed on a 3-1 vote of the FTC.

It appears that the FTC bought the argument from Express Scripts and Medco that the combined company would have more clout with pharmacies and drug makers to reduce prices to consumers. Critics argued that allowing the merger would reduce competition and drive up costs to consumers….”

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Greenspan to GOP: Lay Off Fed Chief Bernanke

Source

“Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has some words for Republican politicians criticizing his successor Ben Bernanke: Back off.

Republican hopefuls Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have all criticized Bernanke for his loose monetary policies, even calling for his ouster as the head of the U.S. central bank.

“Anyone has the right to criticize Federal Reserve policy, but it is wholly inappropriate and destructive to engage in ad hominem attacks,” Greenspan tells the Financial Times, adding that he had been “very much impressed with the depth of his [Bernanke’s] skills.”

President George W. Bush nominated Bernanke, himself a Republican, to be chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006.

Bernanke has faced a barrage of criticism for failing to foresee the financial crisis beforehand as well as for his loose monetary policies in wake of the downturn, including keeping benchmark lending rates to near zero, pumping trillions of dollars into the economy to reanimate it and support for other stimulus measures such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Critics says Bernanke’s policies will fuel inflation down the road.

Newt Gingrich has said Bernanke has been “the most inflationary dangerous and power-centered chairman in the Fed history,” according to ABC News, while Mitt Romney has reportedly said he’d “be looking for somebody new” as have other candidates.

Easier said on the campaign trail than done.

“The notion that Fed board members, once appointed, can be ‘fired’ by the president for their ‘policy views’ is inaccurate. Policy views are explicitly protected by statute,” Greenspan says.

Bernanke, meanwhile, brushes campaign criticism off, telling ABC News “it sort of comes with the job.”

“The Federal Reserve is nonpartisan. Our job is to do the right thing for the economy irrespective of politics,” Bernanke tells the network.

“We’re not paying any attention to election calendars or political debates. We’re looking at the economy. We want to make the right decision. We want to do it without political pressure.”

Criticism of the Fed’s loose policies aren’t limited to politicians.

“The Fed got out of the central banking business many years ago and is now in the central planning business,” Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, tells CNBC in an interview.

“I think the Fed ought to get out of the manipulation business. It ought to begin normalizing interest rates.”

Staying the course

Bernanke remains optimistic that his policies will bring the U.S. economy back to better days although it will take several years before the unemployment rate falls to pre-recession levels of well below 6 percent from the current rate of 8.3 percent.

“I think there’s a reasonable chance, looking at the long-run history, that the U.S. economy will return to healthy growth, somewhere in the 3 percent range,” Bernanke said at a recent lecture to George Washington University students, the Associated Press reports.

The economy grew 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, although economists warn that pace will slow for the first quarter of 2012.

Weekly initial jobless claims have come in a little higher recently, stoking fears that while the economy is recovering, it’s doing so at a sluggish pace

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, according to the most recent data, worse than market forecasts for 350,000.

“The data today is evidence that we’re not going to have the robust recovery we had been expecting. The economy is growing, and the labor market is healing, but both on a very slow basis,” says Michael Yoshikami, chief executive officer at Destination Wealth Management in Walnut Creek, California, according to Reuters.”

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