via Cousin Sal’s Gambling Blog on Grantland.com
I can’t believe it’s already here. Super Bowl XXCLVICXIILCMCMC. (I did the Roman math — it works out). Either way — I’m prepared. I’ve read up on every degenerate gambler’s wagering option connected to this game. If Congress spent half as much time reading President Obama’s health care plan as I did peering over the Super Bowl proposition menu the country would be a better place.
I know betting on the big game can be a terrifying prospect. Eight months is a long time until your next pigskin wager so you absolutely must get it right. But we’ve been betting on NFL props all year long. We’re good at this — remember? How good? I’m only down 287,000 jermajesties* on the season. You don’t get more expert than that.
Here are a few can’t-lose Super Bowl props and a bunch that aren’t but should be.
The Patriots will convert a 4th down attempt (+120)
Is this a proptical illusion? Seems too easy. Two weeks ago, Belichick employed an inexplicably ridiculous, conservative offensive game plan against the Ravens and the Patriots still managed a 4th down conversion. And if you think I have a problem wagering on old men in striped outfits measuring chain lengths wait until you see the next bet …100,000 jermajesties
Henry Hynoski over 4.5 receiving/rushing yards (EVEN)
Here it is — my Gary Russell Memorial Super Bowl prop bet of the year. (have a listen to my appearance on this week’s BS Report to get the full Gary Russell history).
I know what you’re thinking — EVERYONE’s going to take this one. It’s too obvious. Oh — that’s not what you’re thinking? Rest easy. I’ve researched this one a ton. Hynoski totaled a whopping 20 yards vs. the 49ers in the NFC title game. He’s surpassed five yards in seven games this year. Expect lots of points and lots of weird plays this Sunday. Sorry Gronkowski/Gostkowski — there’s a new Polish proposition sheriff in town — and his name is Henry Hynoski. Take the over. 150,000 jermajesties
Welker over 78.5 yards receiving (-115) and over 6.5 receptions (-115)
The Giants fantastic front four gives them the luxury of never having to blitz. That means they’ll be able to keep a few linebackers back in coverage to disrupt the Pats mutant beasts lining up at tight end. I think the confusion over the middle will force Brady to throw to his sure-handed go to route in Welker. Not to mention Welker racked up 136 yards against the Giants earlier in the year and that was before he grew the aerodynamically-enhancing mustache. 40,000 jermajesties each
First TD scored: Welker (8/1) and Manningham (12/1)
See Welker reasons above. These Manningham odds are high especially considering the man who will be responsible for covering him strongly resembles a guy who plays wide receiver for the Patriots. 10,000 jermajesties each
Total points 61-65 (7/1), 66-70 (9/1), 71-75 (12/1), 76-80 (15/1), 81+ (6/1)
All of a sudden, I’ve turned into the worst roulette player. Hear me out. Five out of the last 20 Super Bowls fell in this range. In that time half the games played in domes ended up at least in the mid 50s. That means these odds are too high. Worth a shot. 3,000 jermajesties each
Giants total points (+1/2) over Knicks 1st quarter points vs. Nets (-115)
Simple logic — the Knicks don’t get credit for points when an inbounded pass sticks to a forward’s head — the Giants do. 15,000 jermajesties
Don’t look for these. You won’t find them anywhere …
NE defensive tackle Vince Wilfork’s halftime bowel movement over/under 16.5 pounds?
That’s disgusting. I’m going over. And I don’t want to hear how I’m better than this. I’m not.
137,000/1 odds any valet would be excited to take Matthew Broderick’s Honda CRV for a joyride as they are in this Super Bowl commercial
Anyone else glad the Super Bowl ads are leaked online a week before the game so that we can go to the bathroom during commercial breaks? Anyone? Anyone?
12/1 odds Kelly Clarkson and Madonna will make out at halftime
Not likely.
38/1 Odds Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will make out at halftime
Even less likely.
2/1 odds Betty White will make out with and Seal at halftime.
This is a slam dunk. But not with the recently separated singer — an actual seal. That chick loves animals.
What shade of red will Tom Coughlin’s Rosacea-cursed face be at the end of the game?
Scarlet and crimson are sucker bets. I’m going with vermillion at 11/1.
65/1 odds Kelly Clarkson gets a last minute Chili’s endorsement deal and during the national anthem replaces the phrase “home of the brave” with “home of the awesome blossom”?
I know. That was a long way to go for a blooming onion joke. Bear with me — this is almost over.
Who will NBC show first in the owner’s box: The Girl with The Dragon Tattoo (Rooney Mara, daughter of Giants VP Chris Mara) or an actual girl with an actual dragon tattoo — Rob Gronkowski’s porn star girlfriend?
If the peacock network has any kind of sense of humor they’ll shoot for the latter.
Even odds that for the ninth year in a row Danica Patrick will get cut-off unzipping a leather jumpsuit in a godaddy.com ad.
I joke but the truth is to this day she’s still one of the sexiest female dwarf drivers NASCAR has to offer.
Over 35.5 players from both teams are forced to share the same two prostitutes in Indianapolis.
This is cruel and not at all fair to the players. Like the Brady children having to share the same bathroom as Alice the maid. Barbaric!
1/3 odds that Madonna gets replaced by Kellie Pickler after failing the HGH test.
Hold on. I have a few of these.
Number of game balls made from Madonna’s skin — over/under 8
Almost there.
Which will be higher: Victor Cruz receiving yards or number of visible veins in Madonna’s arms?
Okay — that’s enough. Wait — one more.
Over/under 2.5 friends of yours that will out themselves at your Super Bowl party by knowing all the lyrics to Madonna’s La Isla Bonita
If by any chance you dreamt of San Pedro last night — please keep it to yourself. Or at least save it for a Glee re-run.
5/2 odds Eli Manning’s wife Abby leaps from her luxury box seat to her death after NBC shows a side by side photo of her and Gisele Bundchen.
Hold on — I’m looking at a picture of Abby now. She’s actually pretty cute. Let’s make it 7/2 odds.
Even odds that NBC shoe horns in Whitney Cummings’ irreverent female take on football.
Hey NBC — you already spared us Fear Factor‘s donkey semen stunt. Please do us all a favor and give us a pass on this one as well.
Which will be higher: television shots of Peyton Manning or television shots of Peyton Manning doing shots?
I know — it’s a thinker.
3/1 odds that at next year’s Media Day I will be asking white players who their favorite black person is much like I did last night on Jimmy Kimmel Live
Sorry, black folks — white people are dumb.
That’s that. Enjoy the game. And regardless of how much real money I’ve cost you this year with my fake advice — let’s really try to stay friends this year.
— Cousin Sal
*(Obligatory weekly explanation: A “jermajesty” represents the fake name given for a dollar amount. It is also the unfortunate name of one of Jermaine Jackson’s sons.)
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