Monthly Archives: January 2012
Fed Sees Slower Growth But Offers No Hint Of More Easing
The Federal Reserve, ending a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, repeated its view that the economy faces “significant downside risks” but it offered little to suggest it was close to launching another round of bond-buying to prop up growth.
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Its forecasts pointed to somewhat weaker economic growth this year and next, compared with Fed estimates published in November.
It did say, however, that it would maintain a “highly accommodative” monetary policy stance.
Earlier Wednesday, the Fed pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike until late 2014, much later than it had previously said, because of the still-sluggish economic recovery.
In a historic step that it has touted as an effort toward greater transparency, the Fed also announced an official inflation target of 2 percent, and for the first time published individual policymakers’ forecasts for the federal funds rate.
These showed quite a wide range of views, including three of 17 policymakers who expect rates will need to rise this year and two others who do not see any increase until 2016.
Still, the biggest concentration of estimates was around 2014.
The assurance that rates would remain near zero for at least some 18 months longer than previously believed was enough to drive a steep rally in U.S. government bonds and push stocks into positive territory.
Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.
Many investors had expected the Fed to push its expectations for the first rate hike into 2014, but few had thought it would be late in the year. After every previous policy meeting dating back to August, the Fed had said rates were not likely to rise until mid-2013.
The central bank also appeared more sanguine on the inflation outlook, suggesting prices were now rising at a pace consistent with policymakers’ goals. The statement also dropped a reference saying the Fed was monitoring inflation and inflation expectations.
Aside from the 2014 rate pledge, the Fed’s statement hewed closely to its last policy pronouncement in mid-December. It described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.
In a slight shift, it acknowledged signs that business investment has slowed.
“I think what they are seeing is that the rate of growth is not sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate,” said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at FOREX.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision.
He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.
In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed the overnight federal funds rate to near zero in December 2008.
It has also more than tripled the size of its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion through two separate bond purchase programs.
The policy is credited with having prevented an even more devastating downturn, but it has been insufficient to bring unemployment down to levels considered normal during good economic times.
In December, the U.S. jobless rate stood at 8.5 percent, and some 13 million Americans were still actively looking for work but could not find it.
While forecasters expect the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, they look for growth of just around 2 percent this year.
Fed officials appear likely to bide their time in determining whether more monetary stimulus is needed.
Many economists expect they will eventually decide on another spurt of Fed bond buying – probably one focused on mortgage debt.
Comments »Commentary: Jon Stewart is a Sniveling Little Douchebag
(via Ace of Spades HQ)
Straight-Shooter Jon Stewart: I Can’t Believe Mitt Romney Makes $57,000 Per Day
That’s So Much More Unbelievable Than My Own $41,000 Per Day
Gotta love a TV clown complaining someone else is overpaid and too rich.
“That’ses almost–that’s almost $57,000 a day!” Stewart exclaimed. “Here is the most amazing part: the guy doesn’t even have a job! That is f*cking interest! That is the kind of money that might lead a man to make stupidly extravagant out-of-touch impulse bets!”
Jon Stewart’s annual salary is $15 million per year (and I assume he’s also got interest income on top of that from previous banked salary), which is more than $41,000 per day.
Plus — interest and investment income, which is not reflected in that figure.
But he’s earned it. He was once on Remote Control or something.
$41,095 Per Day
At that level or below, you’re Middle Class.
Above that, you’re just taking too much damn money from The People.
Thanks to George.
Comments »Fed delays rate hikes from “never” to “never ever”
Comments »WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery.
Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.
It depicted business investment as having slowed, dowgrading its assessment from the December meeting.
Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision. He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.
FLASH: U.S Equities Pare Losses Off Dovish Fed Statement
Rich unlikely to sit and take tax hikes
Read here:
Comments »The rich are different from you and me, F. Scott Fitzgerald famously observed. And it’s not just because they have more money, as Ernest Hemingway equally famously responded. Unlike the rest of us, they don’t stand still for taxes.
That comes to mind with the proposals outlined in President Obama’s State of Union address Tuesday that would effectively codify the so-called Buffett Rule — that billionaires should not pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries. With the secretary of the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway seated next to the First Lady, the president proposed that those earnings over $1 million pay a minimum 30% federal tax rate. That would mean no deductions for mortgage interest, health care, retirement savings or child-care benefits, although the deduction for charitable deductions would be preserved.
It also presumably would do away with the preferential treatment of capital gains and dividends, which for 2012 are taxed at a 15% top rate. As things stand, along with the Bush-era ordinary-income tax rates, those taxes on investments are slated to rise to their previous levels: 20% top rate on capital gains and ordinary-income rates on dividends, which would be as high as 39.6%.
Under Obama’s 2012 budget proposals — which at this point are just that, proposals — the hike on capital gains and dividends would be limited to 20% to “upper-income” tax payers, which would be married couples with 2013 taxable income over $241,900. Joint filers below that would still pay 15% on dividends and capital gains — if the Administration’s budget proposals are enacted. For higher earners, it would be 20% on cap gains and ordinary-income rates on dividends.
And don’t forget that “unearned income” will be subject to the 3.8% Medicare tax for couples with “modified adjusted gross income” over $250,000. That would apply to interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents.
Along with Occupy Wall Street, it’s apparent Washington has the so-called 1% of top earners in its sights. No matter that the top percentile already accounts for 37% of taxes. And Obama’s call for higher taxes on million-dollar earners comes as Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney published his 2010 taxes, which showed he was taxed at less than a 15% rate owing to his income coming from dividends and capital gains.
Romney gets flakey on tax loophole comments
Read here:
Comments »If elected president, Mitt Romney might consider ending a tax break that helped the former Massachusetts governor accumulate his fortune, an aide suggested Tuesday.
The comments came as the Romney campaign made available more than 500 pages of tax-return data for 2010 and 2011 amid signs the issue was hurting him with some voters.
Later in the day, in a signal of how the tax issue is roiling the GOP campaign, the Romney camp tried to step back from the aide’s remarks, underscoring that the former Massachusetts governor didn’t want to raise anyone’s taxes.
The back-and-forth Tuesday about Mr. Romney’s approach to one particular tax break began when Lanhee Chen, the candidate’s policy director, indicated in a call with reporters the candidate might be willing to reconsider a tax break known as “carried interest” as part of a comprehensive tax overhaul. The break gives private-equity and venture-capital executives a relatively low 15% tax rate on much of their income.
[More from WSJ.com: Megaupload’s Ripple Effect]Carried interest is a share of profits from an investment fund or partnership given to managers as compensation. Mr. Romney was aided by the tax advantage as founder of private-equity firm Bain Capital.
Mr. Chen noted Mr. Romney hasn’t recently addressed retention of the carried-interest break. He spoke favorably of it in 2008. There are “a number of exemptions, deductions, credits, administrative treatment of income…that would be addressed in tax reform,” Mr. Chen said.
No Change in Interest Rates… QE 2.5 Underway by Not Raising Rates Until At Least Late 2014
The Top 7 Reasons to Never Go on a Cruise {Slideshow}
{HILARIOUS VIDEO} AUSTRALIAN LAWMAKER HAS HERMAN CAIN SYNDROME!
(via NY POST)
CANBERRA, Australia — A senior Australian lawmaker was at the center of an embarrassing plagiarism gaffe Wednesday after he delivered a speech with lines taken straight out of the Michael Douglas movie “The American President.”
Federal Transport Minister Anthony Albanese’s stirring address to journalists at the National Press Club in Canberra was uncannily similar to a speech Douglas made in his role as US President in the romantic comedy.
“In Australia, we have serious challenges to solve, and we need serious people to solve them,” Labor Party lawmaker Albanese said Wednesday.
In the movie, Douglas’ character, Andrew Shepherd, tells a news conference at the White House, “We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious men to solve them.”
Albanese’s speech went on to attack the leader of the opposition, Tony Abbott.
“Unfortunately, Tony Abbott is not the least bit interested in fixing any of them. He’s only interested in two things — making Australians afraid of it and telling them who’s to blame for it.”
The rest of Douglas’ address in 1995 movie was, “And whatever your particular problem is, friend, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who’s to blame for it.”
The similarity between the two speeches was spotted by Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane, who put a video of Albanese’s speech along with the scene from the movie on YouTube.
“I was going through the torture of watching [Albanese] at the Press Club, when suddenly I thought to myself — I’ve heard all this before,” Loughnane told Australian political website The Punch.
Read more: http://trade.cc/acsi
Comments »Today’s Top Industries
IMF: Risk of Deflation is Rising in Some G20 Nations
HSBC Faces Investigation for Money Laundering
Tweets From Davos
Money Flows, Heat Map, and the S&P A/D Line
Money Flows
ISSUE GAINERS SYMBOL EXCH LAST PRICE MONEY FLOW RATIO (in millions) Apple AAPL NASD 448.66 +343.7 1.24 Corning Inc GLW NYSE 13.22 +24.7 2.01 Guidewire Software GWRE NYSE 16.62 +23.7 4.86 General Electric GE NYSE 18.86 +18.5 2.36 EMC Corp EMC NYSE 25.40 +17.0 1.92 IBM IBM NYSE 190.22 +15.5 1.49 Boeing BA NYSE 73.08 +12.8 1.39 AT&T T NYSE 29.88 +11.3 3.08 Procter & Gamble PG NYSE 64.58 +10.5 2.19 Caterpillar CAT NYSE 106.58 +10.2 1.49 WellPoint Inc WLP NYSE 65.11 +10.1 1.20 Abbott Labs ABT NYSE 54.99 +9.2 1.50 Verizon Communications VZ NYSE 37.50 +8.8 2.06 Baker Hughes BHI NYSE 46.55 +8.6 1.67 Bristol-Myers BMY NYSE 32.37 +8.3 2.38 Occidental Pete OXY NYSE 100.34 +7.7 1.45 WW Grainger GWW NYSE 198.72 +7.3 1.73 Natl Oilwell Varco NOV NYSE 74.49 +7.2 1.70 Merck MRK NYSE 38.35 +6.8 1.78 Life Technologies Cp LIFE NASD 49.56 +6.8 1.36 ISSUE DECLINERS SYMBOL EXCH LAST PRICE MONEY FLOW RATIO (in millions) Qualcomm QCOM NASD 59.26 -75.7 0.32 Google GOOG NASD 571.40 -52.7 0.72 Williams-Sonoma WSM NYSE 34.33 -37.2 0.06 ConocoPhillips COP NYSE 70.18 -28.4 0.51 Microsoft MSFT NASD 29.25 -25.2 0.38 ExxonMobil XOM NYSE 86.38 -21.7 0.45 Goldman Sachs GS NYSE 107.09 -19.8 0.61 Illumina ILMN NASD 52.37 -19.3 0.75 Costco Wholesale COST NASD 81.49 -17.7 0.14 Intel INTC NASD 26.62 -17.1 0.51 SPDR S&P 500 SPY ARCA 130.84 -15.7 0.91 Kraft Foods KFT NYSE 38.20 -14.9 0.18 Chevron CVX NYSE 105.28 -14.1 0.52 McDonald's MCD NYSE 98.70 -13.5 0.62 Citigroup C NYSE 29.39 -12.6 0.54 CA Inc CA NASD 25.14 -12.5 0.65 KT Crp ADS KT NYSE 15.00 -11.2 0.01 Pfizer PFE NYSE 21.50 -10.1 0.48 Altera ALTR NASD 39.20 -9.8 0.67 PwrShrs QQQ Tr Series 1 QQQ NASD 59.94 -9.7 0.74Comments »
52 Week Highs and Lows
NYSE
New Highs 36 COMPANY SYMBOL HIGH VOLUME ------- ------ ---- ------ BlkRk MuniHldgs II MUH 16.12 7,119 BlkRk MuniHldgs Quality MUS 14.53 13,017 BlRk Muyld NY Qlty MYN 14.29 11,392 BlkRk MuniYld Qlty II MQT 14.04 16,186 Buckeye Tech BKI 38.50 123,987 Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG 364.00 55,975 ContinentalRes CLR 78.88 619,399 Extra Space Storage EXR 25.61 70,306 Fair Isaac FICO 38.92 13,805 Fidelity Ntl Financial FNF 17.93 182,187 Franklin Universal FT 6.79 11,359 GP Strategies GPX 14.41 5,440 Grupo Aero Sureste ads ASR 65.43 4,647 Inergy Midstream LP NRGM 19.95 59,475 Invesco Quality Mun Secs IQM 15.24 5,629 Kayne Anderson Engy Dev KED 22.42 8,930 Kinder Morgan Energy KMP 89.00 151,752 Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 10.64 710,083 Nuveen CA Investment NQC 15.32 7,916 Nuveen Div Fnd NAD 14.88 8,672 Nuveen Mas Prem Incm 2016 NMTpD 10.18 1,000 Nuveen Mich Premium Inc NMP 14.47 2,254 Nuveen Muni Advantage Fd NMA 14.83 20,073 Nuveen NJ Div Adv Pfd. NUJpC 10.12 5,595 Nuveen NJ Investment Qual NQJ 14.87 20,234 Nuveen NJ Premium Income NNJ 15.55 7,699 Nuveen NY Quality Income NUN 15.75 12,714 Nuveen NY Select Quality NVN 15.79 5,443 Nuveen Prem Inco Muni 2 NPM 15.06 23,971 Nuveen Quality Income NQU 14.98 14,521 PimcoCA PCK 9.90 7,927 Simon Property Group SPG 133.79 109,631 Six Flags Entertainment SIX 43.00 15,764 Stewart Info Svcs STC 13.42 7,516 Taubman Ctrs TCO 65.90 17,762 Total Sys Svcs TSS 22.42 965,229 New Lows 7 COMPANY SYMBOL LOW VOLUME ------- ------ ---- ------ Agnico-Eagle AEM 34.03 138,856 Bill Barrett BBG 27.75 108,781 Cellcom Israel CEL 14.29 130,628 Colfax WI CFXw 30.21 200 Exelon EXC 38.76 1,498,778 France Telecom FTE 14.50 241,437 Portugal Telecom PT 5.19 32,108
NASDAQ
New Highs 25 COMPANY SYMBOL HIGH VOLUME ------- ------ ---- ------ Ames National ATLO 21.25 617 Apple AAPL 454.45 13,013,856 CA Inc CA 26.21 6,065,011 Citizens & Northern CZNC 21.00 4,041 Cost Plus CPWM 13.50 20,023 Curis CRIS 4.94 110,471 Donegal Group Inc A DGICA 15.16 1,085 ePlus Inc PLUS 31.28 661 First Community FCCO 8.50 205 Hudson Tech HDSN 2.70 369,157 Indiana Community Bancorp INCB 21.46 23,368 Landstar System LSTR 50.11 20,714 MidWestOne Fincl Group MOFG 16.19 607 OSI Systems OSIS 56.70 6,344 Pharmacyclics PCYC 18.39 77,758 PwrShrs QQQ Tr Series 1 QQQ 60.30 8,644,307 Ryanair Hldgs PLC (ADS) RYAAY 31.54 46,860 Select Comfort SCSS 24.86 186,591 Silicon Laboratories SLAB 48.50 291,455 Taylor Capital Group TAYC 13.05 56,364 Tessco Techs TESS 17.35 4,335 TripAdvisor TRIP 31.11 171,591 Ulta Salon Cosmetics ULTA 78.40 112,606 VOXX International VOXX 13.19 26,059 Westport Innovations WPRT 38.51 671,878 New Lows 5 COMPANY SYMBOL LOW VOLUME ------- ------ ---- ------ CyberDefender CYDE 0.18 11,400 LM Ericsson Telephone ERIC 8.67 4,209,555 Frontier Communications FTR 4.70 1,016,846 Partner Comm Co PTNR 7.63 120,751 ProShr Ul Sh QQQ SQQQ 15.54 618,064Comments »
Crude Inventories See a Build of 3.6 Million Barrels
Most Active Options Trades
-CALLS- OPTION EXP.DATE STRIKE PRC. VOLUME LAST S/PRC. NET CHANGE AAPL 1/27/12 450.0000 3450 3.2500 up 2.0300 AAPL 1/27/12 460.0000 3142 0.5300 dn 0.0900 AAPL 2/18/12 470.0000 2459 2.1900 up 0.9400 AAPL 2/18/12 450.0000 2411 8.6500 up 4.9000 ILMN 3/17/12 60.0000 2215 0.3000 up 0.2500 IBKR 3/17/12 15.0000 1928 0.9500 dn 0.2000 AAPL 2/18/12 480.0000 1920 1.0000 up 0.1800 AAPL 1/27/12 440.0000 1789 9.6500 up 6.4000 HGSI 2/18/12 11.0000 1742 0.4200 up 0.1700 AAPL 1/27/12 430.0000 1717 19.0000 up 12.4000 -PUTS- OPTION EXP.DATE STRIKE PRC. VOLUME LAST S/PRC. NET CHANGE S 8/18/12 2.0000 5222 0.3100 up 0.0100 IGT 2/18/12 16.0000 1970 0.5000 up 0.0000 NSC 2/18/12 70.0000 1806 0.8000 up 0.2500 AAPL 1/27/12 440.0000 1554 0.7900 dn 21.9100 PSS 2/18/12 15.0000 1300 0.5500 dn 0.1000 YHOO 1/27/12 16.0000 1295 0.5000 dn 0.0200 MGM 2/18/12 13.0000 1143 0.6200 up 0.0500 MRO 7/21/12 30.0000 1088 2.3600 up 0.2500 AAPL 1/27/12 445.0000 1084 2.0500 dn 24.2000 UAL 2/18/12 19.0000 1045 0.4200 dn 0.2800 -VOLUME- CALLS PUTS TOTAL 258167 216489 474656
-CALLS- OPTION EXP.DATE STRIKE PRC. VOLUME LAST S/PRC. NET CHANGE AAPL 1/27/12 440.0000 271 10.1900 up 6.9400 AAPL 2/18/12 440.0000 227 14.1600 up 7.4700 AAPL 1/27/12 450.0000 217 3.2500 up 1.7700 AAPL 1/27/12 435.0000 207 14.8000 up 10.1000 AAPL 2/18/12 420.0000 204 30.4500 up 14.5500 DNDN 2/18/12 15.0000 192 0.8900 up 0.1200 AAPL 1/27/12 420.0000 173 29.5000 up 17.9000 AAPL 4/21/12 410.0000 172 47.3100 up 16.8600 AAPL 4/21/12 430.0000 172 33.1600 up 12.4100 AAPL 1/27/12 460.0000 169 0.5500 dn 0.0700 -PUTS- OPTION EXP.DATE STRIKE PRC. VOLUME LAST S/PRC. NET CHANGE GLD 2/18/12 158.0000 161 1.6700 up 0.3000 MSFT 3/17/12 29.0000 147 0.7900 up 0.0400 FCX 1/27/12 43.0000 130 0.3700 up 0.1200 AAPL 2/18/12 415.0000 124 0.9800 dn 11.1200 GLD 1/27/12 161.0000 111 1.2000 up 0.5800 AAPL 1/27/12 445.0000 109 2.0100 dn 22.9900 AAPL 2/18/12 430.0000 107 2.7800 dn 17.2700 AAPL 1/27/12 450.0000 107 4.0500 dn 24.7000 FAS1 4/21/12 10.0000 100 0.4000 up 0.0000 GOOG 1/27/12 555.0000 100 0.5500 up 0.1500 -VOLUME- CALLS PUTS TOTAL 15902 9307 25209Comments »
Pending Home Sales Fall 3.5%…Reading Still Higher YOY
$AMZN Getting More Serious About Taking on $NFLX
(EXCLUSIVE via NY POST)
Jeff Bezos and his team at Amazon are weighing a move to beef up the Web retailer’s video-streaming service — possibly carving it out as a standalone, subscription-based operation, industry sources told The Post.
Such a move, if undertaken, would set the retail behemoth in the same competitive orbit as Netflix.
Currently, Amazon’s Instant Video comes free with Amazon Prime, the $79 unlimited shipping service.
“They’re looking into it being a standalone subscription service,” one content executive said.
A second exec noted they believe Amazon is chewing over a possible charge.
The Internet retailer does have a paid video-on-demand movie and TV service — but the streaming service would be different.
“The big issue is their bundled media service,” said one digital media executive. “The subscription service, with the goodies being free video, is contractually an issue for the licensers.”
Tinseltown talent doesn’t like being a loss-leader for Amazon shipments of everything from diapers to digital devices.
Word that Bezos may be looking to add muscle to its video service comes nearly one year after Amazon launched Instant Video last February. In July, Amazon paid CBS around $100 million for 2,000 hours of TV shows. It then followed up with deals for Fox content such as “Arrested Development,” and with Disney and NBCUniversal.
The company has had little to say in recent months, however, though one source said that Amazon was “refreshing its checkbook.”
Amazon has been paying fees that are based on the number of subscribers.
Amazon Prime has 7 million to 8 million subscribers, analysts estimate.
Netflix, which reports fourth-quarter results today, has 20 million streaming subs globally.
Paul Verna, senior analyst at eMarketer, said: “Amazon is aggressively pursuing the same content strategy as Netflix and is spending a lot upfront to try to secure exclusivity. They won’t always get it, but they need to differentiate themselves.”
Amazon didn’t return calls for comment.
Read more: http://trade.cc/acqg
Comments »