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Monthly Archives: January 2012

Fed Sees Slower Growth But Offers No Hint Of More Easing

(via CNBC.com)

The Federal Reserve, ending a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, repeated its view that the economy faces “significant downside risks” but it offered little to suggest it was close to launching another round of bond-buying to prop up growth.


Its forecasts pointed to somewhat weaker economic growth this year and next, compared with Fed estimates published in November.

It did say, however, that it would maintain a “highly accommodative” monetary policy stance.

Earlier Wednesday, the Fed pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike until late 2014, much later than it had previously said, because of the still-sluggish economic recovery.

In a historic step that it has touted as an effort toward greater transparency, the Fed also announced an official inflation target of 2 percent, and for the first time published individual policymakers’ forecasts for the federal funds rate.

These showed quite a wide range of views, including three of 17 policymakers who expect rates will need to rise this year and two others who do not see any increase until 2016.

Still, the biggest concentration of estimates was around 2014.

The assurance that rates would remain near zero for at least some 18 months longer than previously believed was enough to drive a steep rally in U.S. government bonds and push stocks into positive territory.

Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.

Many investors had expected the Fed to push its expectations for the first rate hike into 2014, but few had thought it would be late in the year.  After every previous policy meeting dating back to August, the Fed had said rates were not likely to rise until mid-2013.

The central bank also appeared more sanguine on the inflation outlook, suggesting prices were now rising at a pace consistent with policymakers’ goals. The statement also dropped a reference saying the Fed was monitoring inflation and inflation expectations.

Aside from the 2014 rate pledge, the Fed’s statement hewed closely to its last policy pronouncement in mid-December. It described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.

In a slight shift, it acknowledged signs that business investment has slowed.

“I think what they are seeing is that the rate of growth is not sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate,” said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at FOREX.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision.

He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.

In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed the overnight federal funds rate to near zero in December 2008.

It has also more than tripled the size of its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion through two separate bond purchase programs.

The policy is credited with having prevented an even more devastating downturn, but it has been insufficient to bring unemployment down to levels considered normal during good economic times.

In December, the U.S. jobless rate stood at 8.5 percent, and some 13 million Americans were still actively looking for work but could not find it.

While forecasters expect the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, they look for growth of just around 2 percent this year.

Fed officials appear likely to bide their time in determining whether more monetary stimulus is needed.

Many economists expect they will eventually decide on another spurt of Fed bond buying – probably one focused on mortgage debt.

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Commentary: Jon Stewart is a Sniveling Little Douchebag

(via Ace of Spades HQ)

Straight-Shooter Jon Stewart: I Can’t Believe Mitt Romney Makes $57,000 Per Day
That’s So Much More Unbelievable Than My Own $41,000 Per Day

Gotta love a TV clown complaining someone else is overpaid and too rich.

“That’ses almost–that’s almost $57,000 a day!” Stewart exclaimed. “Here is the most amazing part: the guy doesn’t even have a job! That is f*cking interest! That is the kind of money that might lead a man to make stupidly extravagant out-of-touch impulse bets!”

Jon Stewart’s annual salary is $15 million per year (and I assume he’s also got interest income on top of that from previous banked salary), which is more than $41,000 per day.

Plus — interest and investment income, which is not reflected in that figure.

But he’s earned it. He was once on Remote Control or something.

$41,095 Per Day

At that level or below, you’re Middle Class.

Above that, you’re just taking too much damn money from The People.

Thanks to George.

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Fed delays rate hikes from “never” to “never ever”

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery.

Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.

It depicted business investment as having slowed, dowgrading its assessment from the December meeting.

Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision. He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.

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Rich unlikely to sit and take tax hikes

Read here:

The rich are different from you and me, F. Scott Fitzgerald famously observed. And it’s not just because they have more money, as Ernest Hemingway equally famously responded. Unlike the rest of us, they don’t stand still for taxes.

That comes to mind with the proposals outlined in President Obama’s State of Union address Tuesday that would effectively codify the so-called Buffett Rule — that billionaires should not pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries. With the secretary of the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway seated next to the First Lady, the president proposed that those earnings over $1 million pay a minimum 30% federal tax rate. That would mean no deductions for mortgage interest, health care, retirement savings or child-care benefits, although the deduction for charitable deductions would be preserved.

It also presumably would do away with the preferential treatment of capital gains and dividends, which for 2012 are taxed at a 15% top rate. As things stand, along with the Bush-era ordinary-income tax rates, those taxes on investments are slated to rise to their previous levels: 20% top rate on capital gains and ordinary-income rates on dividends, which would be as high as 39.6%.

Under Obama’s 2012 budget proposals — which at this point are just that, proposals — the hike on capital gains and dividends would be limited to 20% to “upper-income” tax payers, which would be married couples with 2013 taxable income over $241,900. Joint filers below that would still pay 15% on dividends and capital gains — if the Administration’s budget proposals are enacted. For higher earners, it would be 20% on cap gains and ordinary-income rates on dividends.

And don’t forget that “unearned income” will be subject to the 3.8% Medicare tax for couples with “modified adjusted gross income” over $250,000. That would apply to interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents.

Along with Occupy Wall Street, it’s apparent Washington has the so-called 1% of top earners in its sights. No matter that the top percentile already accounts for 37% of taxes. And Obama’s call for higher taxes on million-dollar earners comes as Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney published his 2010 taxes, which showed he was taxed at less than a 15% rate owing to his income coming from dividends and capital gains.

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Romney gets flakey on tax loophole comments

Read here:

If elected president, Mitt Romney might consider ending a tax break that helped the former Massachusetts governor accumulate his fortune, an aide suggested Tuesday.

The comments came as the Romney campaign made available more than 500 pages of tax-return data for 2010 and 2011 amid signs the issue was hurting him with some voters.

Later in the day, in a signal of how the tax issue is roiling the GOP campaign, the Romney camp tried to step back from the aide’s remarks, underscoring that the former Massachusetts governor didn’t want to raise anyone’s taxes.

The back-and-forth Tuesday about Mr. Romney’s approach to one particular tax break began when Lanhee Chen, the candidate’s policy director, indicated in a call with reporters the candidate might be willing to reconsider a tax break known as “carried interest” as part of a comprehensive tax overhaul. The break gives private-equity and venture-capital executives a relatively low 15% tax rate on much of their income.

[More from WSJ.com: Megaupload’s Ripple Effect]

Carried interest is a share of profits from an investment fund or partnership given to managers as compensation. Mr. Romney was aided by the tax advantage as founder of private-equity firm Bain Capital.

Mr. Chen noted Mr. Romney hasn’t recently addressed retention of the carried-interest break. He spoke favorably of it in 2008. There are “a number of exemptions, deductions, credits, administrative treatment of income…that would be addressed in tax reform,” Mr. Chen said.

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{HILARIOUS VIDEO} AUSTRALIAN LAWMAKER HAS HERMAN CAIN SYNDROME!

(via NY POST)

CANBERRA, Australia — A senior Australian lawmaker was at the center of an embarrassing plagiarism gaffe Wednesday after he delivered a speech with lines taken straight out of the Michael Douglas movie “The American President.”

Federal Transport Minister Anthony Albanese’s stirring address to journalists at the National Press Club in Canberra was uncannily similar to a speech Douglas made in his role as US President in the romantic comedy.

“In Australia, we have serious challenges to solve, and we need serious people to solve them,” Labor Party lawmaker Albanese said Wednesday.

In the movie, Douglas’ character, Andrew Shepherd, tells a news conference at the White House, “We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious men to solve them.”

Albanese’s speech went on to attack the leader of the opposition, Tony Abbott.

“Unfortunately, Tony Abbott is not the least bit interested in fixing any of them. He’s only interested in two things — making Australians afraid of it and telling them who’s to blame for it.”

The rest of Douglas’ address in 1995 movie was, “And whatever your particular problem is, friend, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who’s to blame for it.”

The similarity between the two speeches was spotted by Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane, who put a video of Albanese’s speech along with the scene from the movie on YouTube.

“I was going through the torture of watching [Albanese] at the Press Club, when suddenly I thought to myself — I’ve heard all this before,” Loughnane told Australian political website The Punch.

Read more: http://trade.cc/acsi

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Money Flows, Heat Map, and the S&P A/D Line

Money Flows

ISSUE GAINERS                 SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Apple                          AAPL    NASD      448.66      +343.7       1.24 
Corning Inc                    GLW     NYSE       13.22       +24.7       2.01 
Guidewire Software             GWRE    NYSE       16.62       +23.7       4.86 
General Electric               GE      NYSE       18.86       +18.5       2.36 
EMC Corp                       EMC     NYSE       25.40       +17.0       1.92 
IBM                            IBM     NYSE      190.22       +15.5       1.49 
Boeing                         BA      NYSE       73.08       +12.8       1.39 
AT&T                           T       NYSE       29.88       +11.3       3.08 
Procter & Gamble               PG      NYSE       64.58       +10.5       2.19 
Caterpillar                    CAT     NYSE      106.58       +10.2       1.49 
WellPoint Inc                  WLP     NYSE       65.11       +10.1       1.20 
Abbott Labs                    ABT     NYSE       54.99        +9.2       1.50 
Verizon Communications         VZ      NYSE       37.50        +8.8       2.06 
Baker Hughes                   BHI     NYSE       46.55        +8.6       1.67 
Bristol-Myers                  BMY     NYSE       32.37        +8.3       2.38 
Occidental Pete                OXY     NYSE      100.34        +7.7       1.45 
WW Grainger                    GWW     NYSE      198.72        +7.3       1.73 
Natl Oilwell Varco             NOV     NYSE       74.49        +7.2       1.70 
Merck                          MRK     NYSE       38.35        +6.8       1.78 
Life Technologies Cp           LIFE    NASD       49.56        +6.8       1.36 

ISSUE DECLINERS               SYMBOL   EXCH   LAST PRICE   MONEY FLOW    RATIO 
                                                          (in millions) 
Qualcomm                       QCOM    NASD       59.26       -75.7       0.32 
Google                         GOOG    NASD      571.40       -52.7       0.72 
Williams-Sonoma                WSM     NYSE       34.33       -37.2       0.06 
ConocoPhillips                 COP     NYSE       70.18       -28.4       0.51 
Microsoft                      MSFT    NASD       29.25       -25.2       0.38 
ExxonMobil                     XOM     NYSE       86.38       -21.7       0.45 
Goldman Sachs                  GS      NYSE      107.09       -19.8       0.61 
Illumina                       ILMN    NASD       52.37       -19.3       0.75 
Costco Wholesale               COST    NASD       81.49       -17.7       0.14 
Intel                          INTC    NASD       26.62       -17.1       0.51 
SPDR S&P 500                   SPY     ARCA      130.84       -15.7       0.91 
Kraft Foods                    KFT     NYSE       38.20       -14.9       0.18 
Chevron                        CVX     NYSE      105.28       -14.1       0.52 
McDonald's                     MCD     NYSE       98.70       -13.5       0.62 
Citigroup                      C       NYSE       29.39       -12.6       0.54 
CA Inc                         CA      NASD       25.14       -12.5       0.65 
KT Crp ADS                     KT      NYSE       15.00       -11.2       0.01 
Pfizer                         PFE     NYSE       21.50       -10.1       0.48 
Altera                         ALTR    NASD       39.20        -9.8       0.67 
PwrShrs QQQ Tr Series 1        QQQ     NASD       59.94        -9.7       0.74

Heat map 

A/D Line 

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52 Week Highs and Lows

NYSE

 
New Highs 36 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
BlkRk MuniHldgs II            MUH         16.12                7,119 
BlkRk MuniHldgs Quality       MUS         14.53               13,017 
BlRk Muyld NY Qlty            MYN         14.29               11,392 
BlkRk MuniYld Qlty II         MQT         14.04               16,186 
Buckeye Tech                  BKI         38.50              123,987 
Chipotle Mexican Grill        CMG         364.00              55,975 
ContinentalRes                CLR         78.88              619,399 
Extra Space Storage           EXR         25.61               70,306 
Fair Isaac                    FICO        38.92               13,805 
Fidelity Ntl Financial        FNF         17.93              182,187 
Franklin Universal            FT          6.79                11,359 
GP Strategies                 GPX         14.41                5,440 
Grupo Aero Sureste ads        ASR         65.43                4,647 
Inergy Midstream LP           NRGM        19.95               59,475 
Invesco Quality Mun Secs      IQM         15.24                5,629 
Kayne Anderson Engy Dev       KED         22.42                8,930 
Kinder Morgan Energy          KMP         89.00              151,752 
Lions Gate Entertainment      LGF         10.64              710,083 
Nuveen CA Investment          NQC         15.32                7,916 
Nuveen Div Fnd                NAD         14.88                8,672 
Nuveen Mas Prem Incm 2016     NMTpD       10.18                1,000 
Nuveen Mich Premium Inc       NMP         14.47                2,254 
Nuveen Muni Advantage Fd      NMA         14.83               20,073 
Nuveen NJ Div Adv Pfd.        NUJpC       10.12                5,595 
Nuveen NJ Investment Qual     NQJ         14.87               20,234 
Nuveen NJ Premium Income      NNJ         15.55                7,699 
Nuveen NY Quality Income      NUN         15.75               12,714 
Nuveen NY Select Quality      NVN         15.79                5,443 
Nuveen Prem Inco Muni 2       NPM         15.06               23,971 
Nuveen Quality Income         NQU         14.98               14,521 
PimcoCA                       PCK         9.90                 7,927 
Simon Property Group          SPG         133.79             109,631 
Six Flags Entertainment       SIX         43.00               15,764 
Stewart Info Svcs             STC         13.42                7,516 
Taubman Ctrs                  TCO         65.90               17,762 
Total Sys Svcs                TSS         22.42              965,229 

New Lows 7 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Agnico-Eagle                  AEM         34.03              138,856 
Bill Barrett                  BBG         27.75              108,781 
Cellcom Israel                CEL         14.29              130,628 
Colfax WI                     CFXw        30.21                  200 
Exelon                        EXC         38.76            1,498,778 
France Telecom                FTE         14.50              241,437 
Portugal Telecom              PT          5.19                32,108

NASDAQ

New Highs 25 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      HIGH                VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
Ames National                 ATLO        21.25                  617 
Apple                         AAPL        454.45          13,013,856 
CA Inc                        CA          26.21            6,065,011 
Citizens & Northern           CZNC        21.00                4,041 
Cost Plus                     CPWM        13.50               20,023 
Curis                         CRIS        4.94               110,471 
Donegal Group Inc A           DGICA       15.16                1,085 
ePlus Inc                     PLUS        31.28                  661 
First Community               FCCO        8.50                   205 
Hudson Tech                   HDSN        2.70               369,157 
Indiana Community Bancorp     INCB        21.46               23,368 
Landstar System               LSTR        50.11               20,714 
MidWestOne Fincl Group        MOFG        16.19                  607 
OSI Systems                   OSIS        56.70                6,344 
Pharmacyclics                 PCYC        18.39               77,758 
PwrShrs QQQ Tr Series 1       QQQ         60.30            8,644,307 
Ryanair Hldgs PLC (ADS)       RYAAY       31.54               46,860 
Select Comfort                SCSS        24.86              186,591 
Silicon Laboratories          SLAB        48.50              291,455 
Taylor Capital Group          TAYC        13.05               56,364 
Tessco Techs                  TESS        17.35                4,335 
TripAdvisor                   TRIP        31.11              171,591 
Ulta Salon Cosmetics          ULTA        78.40              112,606 
VOXX International            VOXX        13.19               26,059 
Westport Innovations          WPRT        38.51              671,878 

New Lows 5 

COMPANY                       SYMBOL      LOW                 VOLUME 
-------                       ------      ----                ------ 
CyberDefender                 CYDE        0.18                11,400 
LM Ericsson Telephone         ERIC        8.67             4,209,555 
Frontier Communications       FTR         4.70             1,016,846 
Partner Comm Co               PTNR        7.63               120,751 
ProShr Ul Sh QQQ              SQQQ        15.54              618,064

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Most Active Options Trades

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       1/27/12         450.0000        3450            3.2500      up 2.0300 
AAPL       1/27/12         460.0000        3142            0.5300      dn 0.0900 
AAPL       2/18/12         470.0000        2459            2.1900      up 0.9400 
AAPL       2/18/12         450.0000        2411            8.6500      up 4.9000 
ILMN       3/17/12          60.0000        2215            0.3000      up 0.2500 
IBKR       3/17/12          15.0000        1928            0.9500      dn 0.2000 
AAPL       2/18/12         480.0000        1920            1.0000      up 0.1800 
AAPL       1/27/12         440.0000        1789            9.6500      up 6.4000 
HGSI       2/18/12          11.0000        1742            0.4200      up 0.1700 
AAPL       1/27/12         430.0000        1717           19.0000      up 12.4000 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
S          8/18/12           2.0000        5222            0.3100      up 0.0100 
IGT        2/18/12          16.0000        1970            0.5000      up 0.0000 
NSC        2/18/12          70.0000        1806            0.8000      up 0.2500 
AAPL       1/27/12         440.0000        1554            0.7900      dn 21.9100 
PSS        2/18/12          15.0000        1300            0.5500      dn 0.1000 
YHOO       1/27/12          16.0000        1295            0.5000      dn 0.0200 
MGM        2/18/12          13.0000        1143            0.6200      up 0.0500 
MRO        7/21/12          30.0000        1088            2.3600      up 0.2500 
AAPL       1/27/12         445.0000        1084            2.0500      dn 24.2000 
UAL        2/18/12          19.0000        1045            0.4200      dn 0.2800 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
258167    216489        474656
 -CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
AAPL       1/27/12         440.0000         271           10.1900      up 6.9400 
AAPL       2/18/12         440.0000         227           14.1600      up 7.4700 
AAPL       1/27/12         450.0000         217            3.2500      up 1.7700 
AAPL       1/27/12         435.0000         207           14.8000      up 10.1000 
AAPL       2/18/12         420.0000         204           30.4500      up 14.5500 
DNDN       2/18/12          15.0000         192            0.8900      up 0.1200 
AAPL       1/27/12         420.0000         173           29.5000      up 17.9000 
AAPL       4/21/12         410.0000         172           47.3100      up 16.8600 
AAPL       4/21/12         430.0000         172           33.1600      up 12.4100 
AAPL       1/27/12         460.0000         169            0.5500      dn 0.0700 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
GLD        2/18/12         158.0000         161            1.6700      up 0.3000 
MSFT       3/17/12          29.0000         147            0.7900      up 0.0400 
FCX        1/27/12          43.0000         130            0.3700      up 0.1200 
AAPL       2/18/12         415.0000         124            0.9800      dn 11.1200 
GLD        1/27/12         161.0000         111            1.2000      up 0.5800 
AAPL       1/27/12         445.0000         109            2.0100      dn 22.9900 
AAPL       2/18/12         430.0000         107            2.7800      dn 17.2700 
AAPL       1/27/12         450.0000         107            4.0500      dn 24.7000 
FAS1       4/21/12          10.0000         100            0.4000      up 0.0000 
GOOG       1/27/12         555.0000         100            0.5500      up 0.1500 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
15902    9307        25209

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$AMZN Getting More Serious About Taking on $NFLX

(EXCLUSIVE via NY POST)

Jeff Bezos and his team at Amazon are weighing a move to beef up the Web retailer’s video-streaming service — possibly carving it out as a standalone, subscription-based operation, industry sources told The Post.

Such a move, if undertaken, would set the retail behemoth in the same competitive orbit as Netflix.

Currently, Amazon’s Instant Video comes free with Amazon Prime, the $79 unlimited shipping service.

“They’re looking into it being a standalone subscription service,” one content executive said.

A second exec noted they believe Amazon is chewing over a possible charge.

The Internet retailer does have a paid video-on-demand movie and TV service — but the streaming service would be different.

“The big issue is their bundled media service,” said one digital media executive. “The subscription service, with the goodies being free video, is contractually an issue for the licensers.”

Tinseltown talent doesn’t like being a loss-leader for Amazon shipments of everything from diapers to digital devices.

Word that Bezos may be looking to add muscle to its video service comes nearly one year after Amazon launched Instant Video last February. In July, Amazon paid CBS around $100 million for 2,000 hours of TV shows. It then followed up with deals for Fox content such as “Arrested Development,” and with Disney and NBCUniversal.

The company has had little to say in recent months, however, though one source said that Amazon was “refreshing its checkbook.”

Amazon has been paying fees that are based on the number of subscribers.

Amazon Prime has 7 million to 8 million subscribers, analysts estimate.

Netflix, which reports fourth-quarter results today, has 20 million streaming subs globally.

Paul Verna, senior analyst at eMarketer, said: “Amazon is aggressively pursuing the same content strategy as Netflix and is spending a lot upfront to try to secure exclusivity. They won’t always get it, but they need to differentiate themselves.”

Amazon didn’t return calls for comment.

[email protected]

Read more: http://trade.cc/acqg

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