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Groupon iPO Well Over-Subscribed

Underwriters will stop taking indications of interest one day earlier than expected.

Prepare for an opening day surge.

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Bernanke and #FED See High Unemployment and Malaise for Years to Come

Federal Reserve officials sharply downgraded their forecasts for economic growth and jobs on Wednesday, expecting a sluggish recovery and high unemployment for years to come.

In releasing their projections for how the economy will perform in the years ahead, the 17 top officials of the central bank project that the jobless rate, 9.1 percent in September, will fall only to 8.5 to 8.7 percent by the final months of 2012. In June, the last time they released projections, they thought the unemployment rate would descend to around 8 percent.

They envision a very slow decline in unemployment beyond that, with the jobless rate falling to the 6.8 to 7.7 percent range by the end of 2014. That is still well above the 5.2 to 6 percent range that they view as the longer run jobless rate.

The Fed officials predict a lackluster 2.5 to 2.9 percent pace growth in gross domestic product next year. That is not much higher than what they view as the economy’s longer run potential growth rate, and is not enough to repair the economy quickly. In June, they thought 2012 GDP growth would be in the 3.3 to 3.7 percent range.

The forecast was released a couple of hours after the central bank announced that it would not take new action to pump money into the economy, assessing that economic growth had “strengthened somewhat” in recent months.

Some Fed officials had argued for the central bank to take further action to pump up growth, such as beginning new purchases of mortgage-related securities to try to lower interest rates and support the housing market. But after two meetings at which the central bank took steps to ease monetary policy, Fed officials elected to stand pat.

One official, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, opposed the decision, arguing that the Fed should have taken more action to help the economy. While dissents in the opposite direction–arguing for less aggressive policy–have been common in recent years, it was the first time in four years that an official has dissented in favor of doing more.

Later in the day, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke began a news conference by recapping the forecast and then took questions from reporters. The first noted the criticism that Republican political leaders have lobbed at the Fed over its monetary policy decisions. “It’s very important” he responded, that the Fed — as an independent body — be free of political influence. In addressing the concerns that Republicans have raised about an increase in inflation, Bernanke noted that “inflation has averaged 2 percent,” the Fed’s target rate. “Where we are falling short,” he said, “is on the unemployment side.”

The leaders of the central bank likely also spent much of the two-day meeting discussing how they communicate their expectations and goals for the economy. There was no immediate announcement Wednesday of changes to those strategies.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee saw the economic situation as being slightly better than they had at their September meeting, however, saying that “economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year.”

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the July through September quarter, the Commerce Department said last week.

But the Fed’s policy statement was hardly ebullient in its description of the economy. “Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated,” the statement said, and “the housing sector remains depressed.”

Evans has argued for a variety of more aggressive steps to try to strengthen the economy and reduce unemployment, but had not previously dissented from a Fed action. The last time an official voted against policy in the “dovish” direction, favoring easier monetary policy, was Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren in December 2007.

At the last two Fed meetings, three policymakers dissented in the opposite direction, worried the Fed’s monetary policy was doing too much to boost growth and risked inflation. None did so at this meeting.

SOURCE 

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Flash: Groupon IPO Could Price $1/$2 Above Range

Groupon Inc could price shares in its initial public offering $1 or $2 above the current range of $16 to $18 per share, according to two investors who said they spoke with the lead underwriters on Wednesday.

Groupon is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell 30 million shares in the IPO, equivalent to a 4.7 percent stake. Books are expected to close later on Wednesday afternoon, with trading on the Nasdaq to begin on Friday.

If the IPO prices at $19 per share, that would value Groupon at $12.02 billion. If it prices at $20 per share, that would value the company at $12.7 billion.

No further information was immediately available. A spokesman for Groupon declined comment, as did a spokesman for lead underwriter Morgan Stanley. The other leads, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, were not immediately available for comment.

SOURCE 

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Senate Democrat Proposes Subsidies for Diapers

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) on Tuesday introduced legislation that would allow federal block grants that states now use to subsidize child-care services to also allow for the purchase of diapers and “diapering supplies.”

The bill, S. 1778, would amend the Child Care and Development Block Grant Act of 1990 to allow diapers and related supplies to be bought with grant money provided to states. Under current law, the money is meant to subsidize child-care services to parents who are entering the labor force or are in job training and education programs. It also helps subsidize child-care services for certain eligible families.

Under the law, 4 percent of all funds must be used to improve the quality of child-care. A summary of Blumenthal’s bill indicates that it would allow the purchase of diapers under this provision, as it would “include the provision of diapers and diapering supplies among the activities for which funds may be employed to improve the quality of and access to child care.”

The federal program, called the Child Care and Development Fund, received $5 billion in fiscal 2011, which it distributed to all 50 states, the District of Columbia and scores of tribal governments. The program now helps to provide for an estimated 1.8 million children each month.

The program also received an extra $2 billion under the 2009 stimulus bill.

SOURCE

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Notes from Bernanke Presser

  •  Severity of Financial Crisis and Housing Slump Forced Downward Revision in Economic Outlook
  • Job of Federal Reserve to Stay Out Of Political Debates
  • Fed Has Been Aggressive
Developing….

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Jon Corzine Gave Speech and Got His Eat On the Night Prior to MF’s Blow-Up

The night before MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) posted its biggest quarterly loss, triggering a 48 percent stock plunge, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jon Corzine appeared at a steak dinner at New York’s Helmsley Park Lane Hotel for a speech to a group of bankers and traders.

“There was no sense at all that there was impending doom,” Kenneth Polcari, a managing director of ICAP Corporates, said of Corzine’s Oct. 24 address to the National Organization of Investment Professionals. “He gave a spectacular speech” about his decades at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), life as a U.S. senator and New Jersey governor and his return to the private sector. “He’s had a full life, up until now.”

Corzine, 64, excused himself before the main course was served, saying he had to prepare for an earnings call the next day, said David Shields, vice chairman of New York-based brokerage Wellington Shields & Co. and a former chairman of the organization. The group seeks to foster “a favorable regulatory environment,” according to its website.

Timothy Mahoney, CEO of New York-based Bids Trading LP, said Corzine’s speech was “delightful.”

The next day, MF Global reported a $191.6 million net loss tied to its $6.3 billion wager on European sovereign debt. On Oct. 27, after the company’s bonds dropped to 63.75 cents on the dollar, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings cut the firm to below investment grade, or junk. Unable to find a buyer, the company filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 31, the first major U.S. casualty of the European debt crisis.

‘Serve the Public’

At least two dozen U.S. lawmakers and regulators, including Representative Joe Barton, a Texas Republican, Carolyn Maloney, Democrat of New York, and former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt have addressed the group, according to its website.

“There are many people in the group that do lobby and talk to regulators,” Shields said. “You talk to regulators, you talk to lawmakers and you try to get the points forward, things that will help the marketplace, that will serve the public.”

The group’s board includes head traders at firms such as Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., whose futures trade triggered the flash crash of May 6, 2010, according to a study by the SEC and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Its members’ firms “trade approximately 70 percent of the institutional volume transacted daily in the New York and Nasdaq markets,” according to the website.

‘Difficult’ Day

The group’s current chairman, Dan Hannafin of Boston-based investment manager Wellington Management Co., declined to comment on the dinner. Corzine and Diana DeSocio, an MF Global spokeswoman, didn’t reply to an e-mailed request for comment.

Mahoney said he appreciated Corzine’s ability “to compartmentalize” and speak engagingly last week. Mahoney’s firm, Bids, runs a private trading venue known as a dark pool, and is a joint venture of banks including Goldman Sachs.

Before the speech, Moody’s cut MF Global’s credit ratings to the lowest investment grade. Polcari said there was one reference to Corzine’s “difficult” day.

While he was “cordial” and “positive,” the MF Global chief lacked his typical “sharp bounce,” Shields said. Corzine is “a member of the community,” and could be invited back after the bankruptcy, he said. “People go through bad times.”

SOURCE 

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Flash: FOMC Decision Much Ado About Nothing

Press Release

Release Date: November 2, 2011

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

 

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