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Monthly Archives: July 2011

Nikkei 225 Expected to Rally on the Golden Cross

Analyst expect a 7% rally based on the technical golden cross. The index is 22 point below the 200 day and may form the golden cross shortly. Analyst expect the Nikkei to rally for the next few months.

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Flash: Panera Bread prelim $1.18 vs $1.17 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $451 mln vs $450.00 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Panera Bread beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus; guides FY11 EPS in-line (129.28 +0.14)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.18 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.17; revenues rose 19.3% year/year to $451 mln vs the $450 mln consensus. In Q2, Company-owned comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 4.4%, franchise-operated comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 3.6%, and system-wide comparable net bakery-cafe sales increased 3.9% compared to the comparable period in fiscal 2010. Average check growth was comprised of retail price increases of approximately 2.5% and negative mix impact of approximately (1.0)%.

Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.92-0.94 vs. $0.92 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. This target assumes transaction growth of 1.5% to 2.0% and average check growth of approximately 2.5% to 3.0% on average year-over-year pricing of approximately 2.5%.

Co issues in-line guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $4.54-4.58 vs. $4.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. The Company is revising its target for Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth to the low end of its previously targeted range, approximately 4.5% for fiscal 2011. For fiscal 2011, the Company is expecting operating margin expansion at the high-end of its previously targeted range of 0 to 50 basis points versus the prior year.

The Company is initially targeting its fiscal 2012 diluted earnings per share growth rate at the lower end of its long-term earnings growth target of 15% to 20%, based on inflationary pressures and the Company’s deployment of capital to date, which as of today is less than 1% accretive to fiscal 2012 earnings growth. The Company continues to seek to use its cash at an appropriate return as it has for the last several years. The Company’s fiscal 2012 EPS target assumes Company-owned comparable bakery-cafe sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0%, very little if any year-over-year operating margin improvement, and approximately 100 to 110 system-wide new unit openings.

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Flash: Las Vegas Sands prelim $0.54 vs $0.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.35 bln vs $2.21 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.54 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.44; revenues rose 47.1% year/year to $2.35 bln vs the $2.21 bln consensus. Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA in 2Q11 increased 90.4% to $901.6 million, compared to $473.5 million in the year-ago quarter. Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA margin increased 870 basis points to 38.4% in 2Q11, compared to 29.7% in the second quarter of 2010. Marina Bay Sands adj. EBITDA margin 55% vs. 48.6% in Q1 and 54.6% in 4Q10; Las Vegas rev +18% vs. -8% in Q1 and +17% in 4Q10. “In Macau, we experienced increased gaming volumes in our Sands China property portfolio, while adjusted property EBITDA margin expanded to reach a market-leading 33.0%. The growth of our higher margin mass table and slot businesses, together with the contribution from the important non-gaming (hotel, retail and convention) components of our integrated resort business model, continue to drive significant margin improvement at Sands China… In Singapore, Marina Bay Sands produced a record $405.4 million of adjusted property EBITDA during the quarter and an EBITDA margin of 55.0%. Record VIP, mass gaming and slot volumes coupled with steady growth in non-gaming revenue streams including hotel, food and beverage, retail and entertainment reflect the broad appeal of the property to Singapore’s visitors from across the Asian region.”

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Flash:Buffalo Wild Wings misses by $0.03, beats on revs

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.58 per share, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.61; revenues rose 26.4% year/year to $184.1 mln vs the $176.6 mln consensus. Co states, “… In the second half of 2011, we expect to open 29 company-owned restaurants in the United States and three in Canada and our franchisees should open about 37 locations, attaining our 13% unit growth goal for the year. Our net earnings growth for the first half of 2011 is over 29%, exceeding our stated annual goal of over 18% growth. With the strength of our bottom-line performance to date, the NFL season intact, and continuing same-store sales momentum, we should achieve net earnings growth of more than 20% for the year.”

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Flash: Amazon.com prelim $0.41 vs $0.34 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $9.91 bln vs $9.37 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Amazon.com beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs in-line (59.62 +0.14)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.41 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.34; revenues rose 50.8% year/year to $9.91 bln vs the $9.37 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees Q3 revs of $10.3-11.1 bln vs. $10.39 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Operating income is expected to be between $20 million and $170 million, or between 93% decline and 37% decline compared with third quarter 2010… Second quarter 2011 net income was positively impacted by equity-method investment activity of $15 million, including a $49 million gain on the sale of an equity position. “Low prices, expanding selection, fast delivery and innovation are driving the fastest growth we’ve seen in over a decade… Kindle 3G with Special Offers has quickly become our bestselling Kindle at only $139. Customers love the convenience of a 3G reader — no hunting for or paying for Wi-Fi hotspots. Amazon picks up the tab for the 3G wireless, so you have no monthly payments or annual contracts.”

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McDonald’s Cares For Your Kid’s Health

Starting soon you will get sliced apples with your happy meal. MCD plans to reduce the amount of fries in the meals. My question is what type of chemicals will be used to keep those apple slices from turning shit brown. I doubt they will slice the apples to order.

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U.S. Labor Department Wants to Save Citizens From Conflicts of Interest; But This May Cause Accounts to be Homeless

A friend of mine, a defense contractor, confirmed what another government friend of mine spoke about after hearing it all up and down the hill; uncle sam wants to run your IRA and 401k. Perhaps this is how they collect those accounts….

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FHA May Be In Need of a Bailout

Due to the lack of private financing the FHA has extended itself to low income and first time home buyers. Capital reserves had declined 15.99% recently and a bailout may be needed to guarantee its $1 trillion in exposure.

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Greenberg Clipboard News: GMCR

Herb Greenberg is going to discuss accounting questions, regular eyebrow raisers, for GMCR—next on CNBC.

The stock is up 0.2% on that news.

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