“I hate being a doom and gloomer. I am a believer in American exceptionalism. It is mind boggling to consider the changes in the world during my lifetime (64 years). Extend time back approximately another 64 years prior to my hatching, and the world had:…..”
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75%? Is that all? Why not go for the entire kahuna and make it 100%…Complete BS…..
@bravo,
not complete b.s.
a similar story happened in the 1930’s (chart wise)…obviously circumstances are different today.
but history has a funny way of repeating itself.
also look at the Nikkei it rallied from 7k to 17k but fell back to 7k now around 10k
It is impossible for me to see a scenario of DIA, +/- 3000, SPY +/- 325…Short of a nuclear war, impossible….we are NOT homogenous Japan….
2 ways we could fall
1) deflation
2)allocation towards other asset classes
I don’t think we drop just based on allocation elsewhere unless there is a huge black swan, or factors from both 1+2.
The system requires more and more principal to replace the interest that comes due. If the fed or govt decided not to buy or if the banks don’t want to lend and no one wants to borrow, or if we end the fed immediately, or someone bombs the fed, or if we increase taxes and cut spending drastically while every other nation of the world does too, it could be extremely bearish. If govt doesn’t address problems and accelerates spending we could have rectangular breakout and hyperinflation.
This is why there is a historically significant pattern over the next decade that will play into effect but also why it’s unconfirmed.
@bravo,
i would agree, but lately, (10 years,) the unexpected has happened more often than not….
Funny how we’re in this mess just as the baby boomers hit retirement.
All this wealth created over the decades has either evaporated or will be transferred to others at a discount.
This era of shit could continue until the last baby boomers die.
Sad.
@Bud,
Very sad
When reading things like this, it is important to remember why people say crazy things like this. Most “famous” market pundits on the teevee got to the position they are in due to one crazy call that actually came true. For every one that gets it right, there are another hundred like this guy that will probably be very very wrong. Just like those million monkeys banging on keyboards writing brilliant works of literature. Nothing to see here.
@ bud tender. precisely.they helped them selves to “my” 200k plus loan to them,and now they are fucking stalling,they knew this was coming,thats why the subterfuge of no ss is tightly tied to this mess. you have to know how a scam becomes,next they will say the reason for rampant teenage pregnancy is due to eating happy meals,so lets go dunk mickey dee’s in the witch pond of political correct water boarding pool…….. cheap fucking con artist’s,, every fucking one of them
Brandt is a great trader and he isn’t making a call here he is simply pointing out how the charts are currently developing and things to be on the lookout for. Undoubtedly, the more people become aware of that which he pointed out, the less likely it is to resolve the way he anticipates. In the article he excplicitly addressed the possibility of a pattern failure and new highs
It certainly could be a year where fundis are an outliar, but whether you use 10 year trailing P/E or previous 30 year growth rate and projected P/E or book value, it doesn’t look like we will see anything spectacular.
Fundamentals suggest very unremarkable market over next 10 year. Macro environment and global potential for either debt consolidation which would result in deflation and multiple compression, or a hyperinflationary response potentially developing into insane multiple expansion. For this reason technicals are coiling up for some sort of move.
Could easily see a big move one way or another is the take away, the headline is just for attention.