Although they are calling for a 2-3% contraction in the economy within the next month, they feel the second half of the year the economy will recover, as reconstruction takes hold. They are calling for just a 0.5% contraction in Japanese economic activity for 2011.
The cite comparisons between the Kobe earthquake (1995) to the current situation. However, they couch their optimistic assessment by warning that nuclear meltdown or extended electrical outages may hamper reconstruction efforts.
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