The most popular (and esoteric) argument for gun stocks being overpriced seems based largely on a riddle that goes something like this:
“You tell me, what happens when gun legislation passes and the buyers realize everything will be okay?”
Which is lovely. I enjoy riddles. And word games. And the works of Nabokov. But this isn’t about playful respite; this is about making money and being right. It becomes my duty, therefore, to thrash you.
I now present three illuminating bullets (I just proofread this and realized I made a pun):
* Stocks like RGR are only trading where they were before sales went crazy
* This legislation will not be hindering gun makers – background checks are perfectly doable because they will most likely have maximum waiting periods attached (1 month or less or else all clear); that’s a minimum to get the measure through the House (if anything even can)
* And, the big shebang…RGR hasn’t raised gun prices and I’m not sure the others have either
Yeah, see that’s the big open secret here. Guns are selling out of stock, but RGR’s CEO was adamant that his company would not be raising prices because, as he phrased it, “gun buyers as a group have long collective memories.” He doesn’t want to prey off his customer base, so RGR hasn’t raised weapons prices at all.
Ergo, once this bill passes and people go “oh, wait, that’s not so bad,” there will be no price incentive for them to cancel their order (“I could sit back and wait for prices to calm down…”). That, right there, isn’t happening. The guns that have been jumping in price are private sales. So, in RGR’s case (and I suspect the other manufacturers as well), there’s no clear financial edge to back out.
There is, however, still the looming possibility that Republicans could lose more seats (remind me, what is the popularity of the GOP at the moment?)…
(I told you I like riddles too)
And so, I am afraid (I’m not actually afraid) that this robust bounty of profitability RGR and the gun market at large are seeing is very much sustainable for a duration of at least a year (possibly two). While eventually and inevitably these orders will slow down, I really couldn’t care less. You see, the stocks are not pricing in this raw influx of cash, and one solid year of the orders they’re experiencing is the equivalent of several years worth of business, all front loaded and with minimum inventory risk attached.Comments »