Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Interest Rates Are Never Rising

Real life beats out professional economists. Again…

Of course the Fed isn’t going to raise rates. Have you taken a look outside, of late?

I had been previously sold on the idea that the Fed might have made some symbolic gesture today; a fractional point or something to that effect. But there is no serious merit to any argument involving meaningful interest rate hikes, either imminently or accretive for the span of some years more yet. There never was.

The Fed needs you to believe they still have any control left. This is how confidence games work.

If I say “cross me and I’ll abduct your first born”, well maybe that will hold power over you for a while.

But the day you say “abduct my first born and what stops me from beating your head in?”…well that’s the day I stop being a meaningful threat.

The Fed is quickly approaching “un-meaningful threat” territory.

Now, will we rally again? That is not so clear.

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  1. gorby

    For sure a rate rise would have
    finished off most American energy plays
    that need dough. That’s not to say they’re not done already.

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  2. surplusdroids

    If the economy is doing well, yet it is too early to justify a 25 or 50 basis point rise. Then…..they are not going to raise. Ever.

    Thus, they are certainly approaching the point of an un-meaningful threat territory.

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