I have a working theory that the EURUSD move precipitated the collapse of oil prices (and the strength of the dollar against other currencies more generally), with the currency move starting at the beginning of 2014 and finally being brought to a head in oil prices in the second half of the year.
It is difficult to fully disentangle the parts because everything is so complex and we cannot fully rule out that oil demand is or would have been soft without the dollar strength. Perhaps it would have been regardless.
But seeing the EURUSD fall while oil bids hold up is encouraging, as it at least breaks the conventional trends that have held so well for nine months.
One thing that does strike me; if currency exchanges were the primary cause of the disruption, then you can expect the pricing swing to correct itself abruptly either when those exchange moves halt or, possibly, just because a majority of the damage escalating from the move has been absorbed or priced in and so the continuation of the cause has a diminutive effect going forward.
For the moment, euro-dollar parity feels like a forgone conclusion and it also seems that oil traders have made their peace with that. But maybe it is too soon to tell.
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I don’t know if your idea is right or not
but I recently came back from a short
road trip-man My gas bill was half
what I’m used to spending.Very happy.
Why have all the oil majors revenues dropped steadily for the last 4yrs?
Some are down 15% in 4yrs so it’s not trivial.
Most of Canada’s larger oil companies I follow have steadily increased revenues at the same time. Shell’s purchase of BG at a huge premium smells of desperation because of this. I expect panic will force the rest to follow suit.
I could understand one or two of the majors are just poorly managed but they all suck equally.