iBankCoin
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Strategy Session

My game plan at this point is to respect the concern of my peers and get defensive into the end of the summer. This shall be accomplished through an increased cash position through sales yet to be determined. This will not involve any hedging or exposure to instruments of financial destruction whatsoever, because that has been a stupid, money losing strategy that only benefits the issuing financial companies/thieves (see TVIX).

In a strange way, my success has insulated me and I am afraid that this may weaken me by extension. It is very difficult for me to believe in a market selloff right now, hanging out near all time highs, singing the praises of my ever-lifting positions day and night. I have a blind spot, and while that is fine in some ways (it’s hard to hate on success too much), I need to be wary in others.

To be specific: my own disregard for the technology investments has been a blessing in that the huge selloff this year has not impacted me. But that same disregard makes me disconnected from the realities of the rest of the system.

I have to imagine, somewhere, that this many positions getting cut in half does really matter. But it’s so far away from me.

So I have no choice but to try and outsource this element to people who are closer to it, whom I have confidence in.

Ergo, I shall be concerned, even while I am not concerned. This is the wise course of action. It respects what is a very real trauma to others, even while I, myself, have been more or less unaffected.

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7 comments

  1. matt_bear

    I’m out in the country on vacation (Yakima, WA) and I’m hearing things about coal production and transportation expansion in the state. Chinese demand for coal is real here. I feel good with NRP purchases now.

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  2. tau

    I doubt there’s much money to be made on exporting coal with all the competition from countries closer to China, most notably Australia.

    The coal is dumped overseas for minimal gain (if any) in order to keep the price of coal from falling further domestically.

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  3. thomasjefferson
    thomasjefferson

    Any thought on MTL as s very long term, high risk/high reward play? I had great luck with X today, and was thinking about other steel ideas. Then I thought about: (a) beaten down Russian stocks, (b) re-surging China, (c) abject hatred for all things coal. And I thought, “Holy cow! What about MTL?” I took a bath on it 6 years ago, but hadn’t thought about it since, until just now. I was going to start digging in but I wanted to see if you had an opinion on the matter given you’re something of a coal man and look longer term.

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  4. thomasjefferson

    Yikes. That’s an easy pass. Thanks! I had heard their balance sheet wasn’t great; safe to say that’s an understatement. Saved me a few hours of research (or hopefully just a few minutes to find that article).

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