There’s only so much upside in a company you can let slip away before you start feeling a little dumb. RGR has now pushed past that point.
I made the call last year that RGR would run straight back to $60. Well $60 is about here, and once again I find myself having duck and run, shunning such a quant idea as “windfall profits”.
It’s not like I was impoverished trading RGR. I made 40% inside of 8 months. But I lost out on an extra 20%, just sitting there on the table.
My reasons for running were good enough. Even though RGR is just blowing away estimates, gun background checks are really falling quite fast. The on the ground information was and is pointing to the gun consumer tiring out – much faster than I originally expected back in December. Maybe it’s not setting up for a decade lull like some are anticipating; but it’s definitely going to hit a dry patch.
RGR shares are pretty steep in price. The company is solid and maybe they have enough in back orders to just ride it out. But I’m inclined to think a slowdown in gun demand will give them a hard time, as far as market pricing is concerned.
Still, I also should have guessed that the average investor-monkey wouldn’t bother looking at gun checks this far out, as they have only short term memory, fueled by pure greed.
For the moment then, yes I am pouting.
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It should also be noted that weapons that had to be back ordered because they simply were not available, are now in stock and available for purchase.
I’m with ya as I also sold into earlier strength in the low 50s and felt good about it…only to watch it tick higher once more. Sigh…the ball leaves the yard on a ground rule double but isn’t as satisfying as a crushed HR.
Get a grip Thaler ! We don’t pout over gains. A win is a win. Losses are things to ponder.