Q1 GDP estimates were complete hocus, spurred by inappropriate inferences from seasonal adjustments and over-optimism that housing prices can ignite a positive feedback loop, at this point in time.
If it seems like there’s no way you could have known that…you’re wrong.
I told you explicitly that this would happen in January, while also reminding you to be stupid long in the teeth with equities. The entirety of this positioning was predicated on selling out into the spring strength and preparing for reality to set it during the summer; that same time reality always sets in.
How many of you listened?
I’m guessing not many, because in the spring, all of a sudden site traffic plummeted and I literally couldn’t give my posts away.
Incidentally, I also told you you’d be back.
Crawling…
We’re enjoying a relief rally at the moment from oversold conditions. Behind that, there’s at least one more leg lower waiting. We will retrace most of the last four months; first look comes at 1,540 SP for me.
At that point, I’ll make the judgement if we go lower still, or set up for a bottom.
In the meantime, please stop talking about the accelerating growth lines.
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but if people weren’t here, would it still “says says”?
Yes, you told us, and I listened. Thanks.
good post. any thoughts on the metals?
I like physical silver at any price under $30.
No miners. No others.
$8.50. Here it comes.
Lol I mean that’s about a third of the price to reclaim silver in the refinement process – and that’s high since silver refinement expenses depend largely on the going prices for the other metals silver is usually found in.
So that would be about on par with my crude to $60 call from two years ago. Totally feasible, but if it happens it will be temporary
I’m just looking for one trade to clear at $8.50 so I can claim a terrific victory.
Then I will start a PM investing newsletter and rake it in all because of this one “brilliant” call.
Lol