My, oh my, we are getting close to that big 1 year anniversary.
You fucking tools have been calling on this “imminent round of new money printing” for soooo long…which is apparently both not imminent, nor is it apparent.
Every day, my Twitter stream is chock full of this slumgullion. A bunch of pseudo sophisticates in suits strutting through the crowds, pumping up prices because the Fed is…well, not printing money.
“Hey, did you know the Fed may initiate a new round of money printing, which could inflate asset prices?”
“Did you know the federal reserve devalues the dollar?”
“Have you ever heard about inflation?”
Yeah, I think I may have heard of this before. So has every other bastard ever birthed on this planet.
Calls for money printing are like that guy who still wears sleeveless coats, or that girl who collects Cabbage Patch Dolls. Their sad dedication almost overlooks the fact that their fad is long dead.
They’ll only get away with this for so long.
Yes, I’m talking to you, Captain QE. Why don’t you go long 100,000 futures contracts of oil if you’re so fucking confident you understand Ben Bernanke? Shortly, your demise is going to propel me to recovering all my losses from last year and then some. I’m going to stack up the carcasses of every commodity bull, just so I can climb up them and then slide down the backside.
I wouldn’t be so full of vitriol, but for this:
Ben Bernanke NEVER said he was considering printing at that last press conference. He NEVER said he was considering more printing at the last ten, actually. He hasn’t said he was considering new printing since he declared QE2.
Unless I am very mistaken, that is a fact, ladies and gentlemen.
All of these rumors have come from…you.
When Bernanke says “The Fed is committed to continued accommodative policy,” where the hell does “Dude, I’m gonna print free money and make it rain like mother F-ing skittles” come from? He’s OBVIOUSLY talking about interest rates.
Just remember this in a few months, when all your capital has been jacked by the next big sell off.
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So , I can put you if the market correction camp ? Care to put a percentage of carnage
expected for us poor fools that are buying this dip ?
is that you, Urban?
The market wont give up 13K on the Dow that easily. THEosu, buy the dip…
Have you two been trading for the past three years?
I expect the EXACT SAME outcome as 2010 and 2011. 2012 will be a blood bath for every poor jackass buying the “trend”.
Then, in about September, the seedlings of tomorrow’s suckers will sprout their little heads out of the ground, nurtured by the blood of those killed off in the coming selloff, and pick up the torch where today’s bankrupt speculators left off.
Yes, it will come eventually. If i were to guess, sometime between end of April and June. In 2010 and 2011, SnP sold off 20% … so if history repeats itself, we will probably revisit 1,200 on the SnP.
Slumgullion is a great word. The tough thing is sorting the slumgullion from the pure bs. Sometimes it seems there is just too much information out there.
I have noticed that there has been an influx of money managers and finance professors over the past week writing articles that say nothing more than what you mentioned above “printing causes inflation, devaluation, blah blah blah.” Just goes to show how many people make their pay spewing nothing more than talking points everyone already knows. For an industry that is suppose to employ the smartest minds it is seriously lacking in creativity at the moment.
Meanwhile the guy who shorted the dollar in 1992 is essentially flat. Some devaluation.
I don’t think Bernanke is in as bad of a position as some people think. Like you said, his rhetoric has induced rallies for nearly a year, without actually saying he is going to print money. It’s essentially biding time hoping the economic data will take over. And it’s kind of worked for the last three months. Maybe if we get a major correction in the next few months he can prop it back up for another year by actually saying they are considering making it rain. Then when that argument gets old and we get a correction, then he finally prints. This whole charade could last another 2 or 3 years. Fun!
I really hate ccj man.
(laughter) it bucks like a stallion. You need to hold on.
I know you’re an oil man right now Cain, but I have started getting that sense I tend to get once or twice a year when a thesis starts to develop. I feel like the short treasury trade may be fast approaching.
There’s a disconnect that has been going on between treasuries and dollars for the last few weeks. Treasuries are selling off like commodities whenever a rumor of no QE3 comes out. I get the sense a lot of people that were long treasuries are essentially stuck in cash and staring at a bunch of inflated asset values wondering where to go.
The long end of the curve is starting to look rather suspect. Any further rallying and money will continue coming out. Any panic and money should flow into the short end of the curve, especially if the sell of is at all attributed to no QE3.
Thinking of shorting long bonds, with the idea of piling in if we see a spike to new lows in 10 and/or 30 year rates.
Your thoughts?
I dont think Benny would want that, that would kill housing and any semblance of a recovery.
The fed will put the bid under the bonnds. Thats where QE2 failed. Markets rocked, yields rose.
I suppose when talking about treasuries selling off, these days one has to clarify that they aren’t calling for the end of the world. I’m talking 1-2% higher in 10 and 30 year bonds. Would Benny want that? I don’t know, I’m not trying to get in the mind of anyone, I’m just trying to find where the money is flowing. Right now it’s coming out of treasuries and, by the looks of it, sitting in cash. Of the three that things that could happen: 1) move from cash to risk assets, 2) cash back to treasuries, or 3) stay in cash, I think #2 is the least likely, especially on the long end of the curve.
But for shits and giggles, lets dissect what Benny “wants.” This bid you speak of, how is it done? Is he going to print? Are they going to figure out a way to buy assets without printing and somehow convince the market they aren’t printing? Or is it going to literally be magic? Benny’s powerful, but I don’t think he’s a magician.
so who is dumping treasuries,for cash?and what are they doing/buying with it?
TMF. I explored this trade earlier, but held off. I think treasuries will be bought hard at least one last time.
Correlations seem to be back to normal this morning. Dollar and treasuries vs the world. Not dollar vs the world like it has been a few times.
You’re probably right. The more I think about it, it’s all kind of based on a pretty major shift happening. There are easier ways to play this (oil).
What can I say, this is very much a work in progress.
yesterday’s hyper move in TMV was a typical reflex move our market has now become accustomed to .
God I just bought 2 dozen cabbage patch dolls on ebay that I was going to flip!
isnt that what has been keeping this faux market propped,”rumor and inuendo”,and the sun will rise in the morning like it has for the last slumzillion years.:)
2012 feels like 2010 n 2011, but this year is election year. can this year be different than 2010 n 2011? Obama trying to be the president for the second term.
Why does Ben care if Obama gets reelected?
I love it. So on the money here. Bulls always accuse bears of confirmation bias but are so blind to their own. I know the techincial trend is up, but everything else is shit. You can only throw money at shit so long before people realize it is still shit, just now really expensive, unaffordable shit.