iBankCoin
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Shim sham and rot – Detroit’s End Game

I’m sort of half-heartedly watching the city of Detroit going through the motions of deciding to give up its self-governance to the state of Michigan.  It’s amusing, but in that “pulling my hair out” sort of way.  In a recent last ditch effort to buy more time, the city is trying to raise something like $130 million in a bond offering.

You’d have to be an idiot to buy them for anything less than pennies on the $10,000.  There’s about zero chance of ever getting your money back from this sink hole.

Basic projections have Detroit running out of money sometime next Thursday, which means they’re already out of money and busy raiding pension funds, charity institutions, etc.  Anything with standing cash they can spend is most likely flying out the door.

So naturally all the local poltical contenders are busy putting on a show; claiming the state is robbing them, threatening to take to the streets in civil uprising, contending that they’re owed bailout money from the rest of the state, refusing to accept any responsibility or oversight as an affront to Democracy,….

My favorite is a few of the “less sentient” of the city council who seem to think they can hardball the state into better terms by refusing to vote for the current aid package, which would avoid a direct takeover and resort instead to a series of checks and reviews.  Money with no strings attached; that’s the only acceptable outcome for them.

Ha, they really are just clueless on how leverage works!  They have zero bargaining chips; they’re holding a 2 of hearts, and 7 of clubs, a Draw Four card from an Uno deck, and a parking validation ticket…in five card stud.  And they’re trying to bluff Snyder, who’s holding a suited straight and already has all the chips.

What a mess.  I await the Emergency Financial Manager with glee.  Hail Caesar!

In other news, the EU is going to up their firewall/bailout to 1.1 trillion euros.  Let’s go back through the last six months.  This is including the 400 billion euros they appropriated last Fall.  Plus the LTRO which brings the total “euros from nowhere in particular” to 2.1 trillion.

This is to keep governments running, because tax receipts are caving.  But more, the EU governments need to keep rolling their debt over.  So every one of those euros (plus at least another trillion if my predictions hold) is committed.

And what is all this money buying?

Nothing.  The answer is: this is what they need to sustain their current economic activity, which is contracting at almost double digit rates.  All these trillions in dilutive currency get them no economic stimulus whatsoever.

So I will say it again.  The euro and the dollar are going to par, and when they do, we’ll see what you think of the US and emerging market economies then, now won’t we?

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36 comments

  1. Sooz

    Classic piece of writing here!
    Thanks, Mr.C Thaler

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  2. JakeGint

    I don’t know how you bear living even near that schithole.

    Move to West Berlin! Holland, or Grand Rapids or someplace!

    _____

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      The west side of the state is beautiful. But I have roots over here. Besides, I know where to go.

      Detroit and the surrounding areas offer just as many amenities as everywhere else. We have are own luxuries. We just keep them tucked safely out of view.

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      • The Fly

        lol. What sort of “luxuries” might DTown have?

        Enlighten us.

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        • Raul3

          Allow me: Detroit offers excellent urban pheasant hunting. You won’t find that luxury in any other city.

          As for more sophisticated luxuries, the Detroit Yacht Club on Belle Isle is tier one. The Detroit Athletic Club has a boss swimming pool overlooking Comerica Park.

          A recurring theme, clubs playah…we must keep the wrif wraf out.

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          • Mr. Cain Thaler

            The Westin, Cliff Bell’s, numerous breweries, several theaters, three casinos, steak houses galore, I’d add to Raul. And I’m not just referring to Detroit; the surrounding cities offer up the same. Grosse Pointe, Birmingham, Troy, etc are stuffed full of yacht clubs, hunt clubs, societies, golf clubs. Lots of sporting events too.

            It’s not like I live on 8 mile.

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          • Mr. Cain Thaler

            I forgot about The Player’s Club!

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        • Raul3

          Some fantastic parties are hosted at the Masonic Temple, and many a house party in some of the finest homes ever built in Detroit’s historic Boston Edison district and Indian Village.

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        • Sooz

          future:
          The next’Hooray for Hollywood'(except i think Ms G. messed that up). It is where I will be discovered someday.

          🙂

          *try driving through Flint where you need a presidential bullet proof vehicle…now that place is down right h#ll.

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        • Sooz

          ummm..
          let us not forget to remind you about all the beautiful trees and their ‘Perfect Height’..(?)

          😉

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      • Dave

        You will always have the Red Wings.. Best damn team in the NHL!

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      • Dave

        I drove through Gross Pointe once, and it was amazing, until you get to the end of the road and on the other side of like 12 ft cynder block walls are boarded up liquor stores and houses and people (ghetto folk) were just roaming the streets looking for shit to do. We turned around and drove back. That place was fugging scary Thain

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        • Mr. Cain Thaler

          ???

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          • Mr. Cain Thaler
            Mr. Cain Thaler

            Oh, I just re-read that. Lol, it’s always funny how tangled the wheat and the chaff get around Michigan cities.

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    • rogue wave

      CT, with all due respect, Jake is right.
      Unless they discover natty under the city, don’t walk – fucking run from there. Sell your fucking house tomorrow, literally, for whatever you can get. I said the same thing shortly after you started at iBC. Ask yourself, are RE price higher now than they were then?

      A year from now prices & quality of life will be lower. A year later, lower still. Do not wait for the riots.
      Face facts, gtf outa there. Some places never come back.
      Last one out, please dynamite the place.

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  3. Montrose

    “They have zero bargaining chips; they’re holding a 2 of hearts, and 7 of clubs, a Draw Four card from an Uno deck, and a parking validation ticket…in five card stud.”

    Apt and chuckle-worthy comparison there.

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  4. leftcoasttrader

    I drove through Detroit once. It was one of the scariest experiences of my life. I was doing 70mph through a construction zone where the limit was 45 and semi-trailers were swerving to get past me. It really put the city into perspective…a whole lot of people running for the exits.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      That’s not the city, that’s Michigan. And quit driving so God-damned slow.

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    • heaterman

      It’s called the Motor City for more than one reason and it bleeds over to the entire state. Gotta go the U.P. to find anyone driving less than 70 on two lane roads let alone interstate highways. For good entertainment just take the drive up I-75 from MoTown to FLint about 4:30 in the afternoon. YeeHaa!!

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler

        Back in 2009, when all the state police were getting laid off, I could make that trip in about 50 minutes, flat, doing 100mph.

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        • heaterman

          We do love our motors here. Just talked with a guy the other day that got busted in his 3/4 ton Dodge diesel which is “tuned” to say the least……. Was drag racing a guy in a new Camaro and beating him when he got pinged by a state boy. 128 in a 45. Things don’t look so good for him. 🙂

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  5. surplusdroids

    Detroit is the Next SOHO/lower manhattan for artistic types and tech types.

    At some point I will buy some Detroit real estate.
    For the very long haul.
    Most likely till death.

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  6. GoodAsGold

    Do you really think Ben will sit back and allow that parity to be reached? Once the Euro gets below, say $1.27 or so, he will intervene.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Ben is not the fucking master of the universe. That’s the sole argument anyone can offer me to “prove” I’m wrong – Ben will do…something…

      What’s he going to do? Alright he shits on the dollar and oil runs to $150. We go into a recession anyway.

      Look at personal incomes. Everyone was getting their panties in a bunch because they were just definitely rising. BOOM. Nothing…we all know the masses cannot shoulder these cost increases. If Ben doesn’t wipe some of you out and ease prices, then our growth will drop to zero.

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  7. Lurker

    Absolutely fascinating bit of information. I didn’t realize Detroit was spiraling into financial ruin next week. I guess I missed that one between YHOO’s stories of ‘6 weeks to better lats’ and ‘kitten plays with ball of yarn.’

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Lol it’s really easier to like the kitten

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    • Heaterman

      Detroit is run by people who are either clueless or deeply in denial and/or la la land that there is virtually no chance for anything but the big BK,
      Snyder wants to send in an emergency manager about as bad as I would like to swim in a tank full of sharks. He would much rather have someone in the city itself grow a pair and do what needs to be done.
      Last I read was that all income currently being generated does not cover the pension payouts let alone keep the streetlights on and pay a cop or two. And yah……do you think they’ll stick around just for the fun of it when they don’t get a paycheck for a month or so? That’ll work out real well I’m sure.
      If you live in Detroit you have a limited number of choices, bug out, hide in your underground bunker or arm yourself in a massive way and fight it out.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler

        National guard part deux?

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        • heaterman

          Would not be surprised in the least. A friend in Saginaw told me last year that Homeland Security had contacted him to see if he would be available to fly surveillance flights in his single engine aircraft if called upon to do so. Nope. Not surprising at all.

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  8. drummerboy

    i have deep roots in motown,allen park. and my brother and his family are in sw,mi. my aunt and uncle are rolling in their graves,he spent his whole life at gm. i got my first snare drum from detroit,at 17 my cousin took me to this bar,that made the biggest, and best burger i ever ate,and i still remember it till this day……..worse than a broken heart man…………

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      It’s such a shame. The architecture is what kills me; seeing these stunning works of stone and some are just ruined. Like the train depot.

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  9. Chinese cheongsam

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