Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

This Blood Is Now Sanguine

I’ve grown optimistic for the turmoil taking place in the Middle East.  When the event was contained in Egypt and the local pro-western governments, it really got to me.  But now that I’m watching Ahmadinejad and Qaddafi taking a piece, I suddenly have renewed hopes for humanity.  My original pessimism stemmed from the assumption that Iran would be in a position to play Egypt’s strings.  That is now in question.

Maybe this thing will spread to South America and come knocking on Chavez’ and the Fernandez’s door?

That being said, I’ve gone over my assumptions and positions, and there just isn’t much backlash or gain I can receive from this whole situation.  It’s like a Shakespearian play; I’m in the audience, watching intently, but the actors are all talking in obfuscating ways, and I don’t really care when Mercutio dies.

As for my positions: AWK is already up almost another percent in pre-market trading, and seems to be standing above the water utility crowd.  However, other names may well eclipse this one in the coming months.

I remember someone on my column pumping CWCO because of their water desalination technology.  Jim Jubak over on MSN has also assembled a list of some ideas.  I haven’t checked out CWCO or any of Jubak’s picks; however, I generally agree with the thesis.  Especially with the draughts that have been taking place in the Asian continent, coupled with that region’s notorious lack of cleanliness; you can expect them to be forced to invest in water in a big way, over the next few years, if they hope to avoid the next plague/famine.

That being said, I’ll just stay with AWK.  I like their position within our own country, at this place and this time.

As for work with actual substance to it; I’ll either be releasing some notes on various stocks that have been mentioned in the comments section, finishing the Talir Index (it is very close to being done), or writing on the concept or risk threshold and what it means for stock selection and decoupling.

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  1. Mr. Cain Thaler

    BG for the win!

    Also, if you’re not familiar with them, ComTex are pure loons. This message was sent to me yesterday (I get one after every single upward movement in several of my positions. They take up precious space and mental capicity needed to disregard them.)

    Look for Shares of Bunge to Potentially Pullback after Yesterday’s 0.01% Rise (BG)
    8 hours 26 minutes ago – PSM via Comtex

    Comtex SmarTrend(R)Bunge (NYSE:BG) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $71.68 to a high of $72.78. Yesterday, the shares gained 0.01%, which took the trading range above the 3-day high of $72.48 on volume of 1.4 million shares. Often times after large one-day gains, short term traders will seek to take profits and, as such, investors should be cautious.

    Shares of Bunge are currently trading above their 50-day moving average (MA) of $66.61 and above their 200-day MA of $58.10. Look for the MA to provide support for a short-term pullback in the shares.

    SmarTrend currently has shares of Bunge in an Uptrend and issued the Uptrend alert on September 09, 2010 at $56.73. The stock has risen 27.5% since the Uptrend alert was issued.

    SmarTrend expects the share price to pullback toward the $72.31 support level. Afterwards, we expect it to move upward with its peers in the SmarTrend Farm Products industry.

    Write to Chip Brian at [email protected]

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  2. Ol' Jack Burton

    Hey MR. Cain – liked what I heard and saw with AWK’s presentation this week. If you are going to own a water utility, I think they are the one you want…cheaper than the others, pretty good dividend. The other thing I like about the water utes is there are so few of them, so not much choice if a mutual fund wants in. I took a look at CWCO and bought a small position – pays a divy, not much debt, like the chart. Downside is it’s based in Bermuda which always gives me the jeebies and very small cap so not much liquidity (pun intended). Utes are actually pretty great. They don’t have much hedge fund activity and are pretty impervious to analyst downgrades. I know a guy that has sat on a position in Con Ed for years and just reinvested the dividends and has made a small fortune, no muss no fuss.

    I am not buying much of anything right now – I have had more “seller’s remorse” lately than I’ve had in a long time which in the past has been a red flag. When Cramer is doing his Cramer-thing about how you’ve got to be in commodities and tech no matter what the price, I want to have one foot out the door.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      (laughter) I agree with the Cramer sentiment; there’s always a price to great.

      Way to keep on top of the company developments. If you’re looking for more sector ideas then take a look at REITs. I’ll be posting an extension report in a few hours.

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