I've been doing this a long time.
Joined Oct 7, 2015
95 Blog Posts

Abenomics, Grandma Yellin, Asshole Oil Futures Traders, MIssiles From Yemen, Frexit and More!


I don’t know where to begin.

I woke up early this morning to the usual smack across the face by my fucking dog at 5am and upon checking messages, saw that my Love’s mom had called me. Knowing that she (Love) had only recently emerged from Hospital after having some internal bits rearranged, I feared the worst. Turns out 90-yr old Mom had pressed the wrong button on the iPhone. OK, on to today’s news:

newPic_8936_PNG_3444023bGrandma Yellin speaks today at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A place you never want to go to unless you are skiing and it is March. Apparently, she has said Cautious Things and one of her butt-boys has said Hawkish Things and the DJIA has been bouncing around like a ping pong ball in Rio ever since. Yellin is the worst Fed Chair in my lifetime.

20160426_150754000_iOSIranian Revolutionary Guards posing as Yemenis have lobbed missiles of some sort that have landed somewhere in the vicinity of some Saudi oil operation, causing panic amongst amateur futures traders. Then again, *anything* can cause panic among amateur futures traders who are clueless morons. Oil has retreated from it’s spike over the bogus news from the Kingdom. I picked up some $DWTI on the news.

imageJapan: Annual deflation deepened last month, with consumer prices falling by 0.5% in the year to July. It followed a 0.4% drop in June and was the biggest fall in more than three years as businesses delayed price hikes because of weak demand. Conclusion: Abenomics has nowhere to go, the Japanese are practically begging Yellin to raise rates, not gonna happen, Abenomics is fukado.

Generated by IJG JPEG LibraryMarie le Pen has fired the next salvo across the bow of the endangered European Union as she ramps up her call for “Frexit”. In other EU news, the British Pound is up smartly as Q2 numbers look good. Italy and Austria hold EU-Exit referendums in October.




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Obama golfs while Baton Rouge drowns

“We can talk about what happened for a few days in 2005 and we should,” Obama said. “We can talk about levees that could not hold … about a president who only saw the people from the window of an airplane instead of down here [on the ground], trying to provide comfort and aid. We can talk about a trust that was broken.”


And now we have the Divider-in-Chief, golfing on lovely Martha’s Vineyard (on the ground, wrong state) and claiming he is staying away from Baton Rouge because his presence will be a “hindrance to first responders on the ground”.


Here is video of Donald Trump “hindering” first responders on the ground:

Can’t you smell the stinking, stewing, fetid hypocrisy here? Oh and did the mainstream press eviscerate Obama as they did Bush? Hell no, don’t be a naïve fucking moron.

UPDATE: two hours after GOP Presidential Candidate Donald Trump got “on the ground” in Baton Rouge too see the devastation first-hand,  help hand out out food and give some hope to the devastated citizens of Baton Rouge, Obama announced he will visit…next Tuesday. One can only assume there is a bit more “work” needed on his short game.  <spit>



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Greed and Stupidity in the Crude Oil Futures Market

Sept Contract futures jumped 50 cents on this news:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum. Reserve) decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.1 million. barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while. blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories. increased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average. range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.8 million barrels last. week and are at the upper limit of the average range.

Total commercial petroleum. inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week.

Put simply, we are running out of places to put stuff. Labor Day in the USA is just around the corner, signaling the end of driving season. After that, gasoline consumption will decline. There is a reason refiners have been getting clobbered lately. Speaking of refiners, maintenance season looms and gasoline production must switch to the winter blend.

Oil production in the US actually increased, which should not be all that surprising as the number of active rigs has been rising all summer. Here in tax-heavy Connecticut 87 Octane is selling for $2.15/gal which means most of the country sans California should be well under $2.

Producers aggressively hedged when futures briefly peaked above $50 earlier this year. Expect more of the same, which is the great catch-22 of the whole game.

Iran is already balking at the notion of freezing OPEC output at current record levels. We saw the same scenario with the failed meeting in Doha.

Saudis and Russians are pumping furiously to maintain market share.

Iraq is moving forward with ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell to ramp up production.

Of course the market makers at sites like investing.com are furiously pumping WTI, Brent, NatGas and even Copper on the news.


Situation Normal, All Fucked Up


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Bloomberg: Crude price freeze will never happen

If this all seems familiar just think back to the failed Doha meeting a few months ago. It’s Deja Vu all over again.

Liam explains it all to you:  Click here

Saudi hint of action on production won’t get past the talking stage.

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Hong Kong Property Stocks Are Hottest Since Eve of 1997 Collapse

Inside the Exodus community notes area the other day, someone said he “had a weird feeling” re the overall market.

That is the feeling of Impending Doom, son. Calm before the storm, irrational exuberance, Sword of Damocles,  that sort of thing.


Hong Kong real estate shares haven’t been this hot since the city’s last housing bubble burst almost two decades ago.

Source: Hong Kong Property Stocks Are Hottest Since Eve of 1997 Collapse

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Saudi Arabia Said to Have Offered $4 Billion to Banks – Bloomberg

It’s a Race to the Bottom between Saudi Sovereign Wealth and American Shale Producers. 2017 will be the Year of the Shakeout.



Saudi Arabia’s central bank offered lenders short-term loans in late June to help ease liquidity constraints, according to five people familiar with the matter.

Source: Saudi Arabia Said to Have Offered $4 Billion to Banks

It is just not working out the way the Saudis thought it would, as US creditors have gone out on some shaky limbs to prop up their disastrous oil investments as well.

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China’s debt problem is worse than expected, Moody’s warns

China’s “shadow banking” system is masking the rise in indebtedness in China, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report Wednesday.image

“The growth in overall leverage may be understated, because some of the fastest growing components of shadow banking are not included in TSF (total social financing),” said Michael Taylor, Moody’s chief credit officer for Asia Pacific.

We estimate the potential understatement to be significant, amounting to at least RMB16 trillion ($2.4 trillion) or 23 percent of GDP at end-2015, equivalent to around one-third of shadow banking,” Taylor added.

Moody’s said TSF flows were being sustained by formal bank credit flows supported by accommodative monetary policy.

The increasing leverage was worrying.

“The rise in overall leverage and further expansion of shadow banking activity are pushing up financial risks,” said Stephen Schwartz, a Moody’s senior vice president.

Moody’s had a Aa3 rating on China but lowered the outlook on the country’s credit rating from stable to negative in March.


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China Bank to Turn $1.6 Billion of Bad Debt Into Securities



Bahahahahaha! Will YOU be a buyer?

The lender plans to sell securities backed by 10.7 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) of nonperforming loans on the interbank bond market, it said July 22 on the Chinese bond clearing house website.

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. is planning China’s largest sale so far under a trial program for lenders to offload bad loans by packaging them up as asset-backed securities.

The sale price will be the equivalent of 29 percent of the loans’ face value, with the recovery rate on the debt forecast at 41 percent, the lender’s statement showed.


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Bloomberg: Oil Demand Is Headed Over a Cliff Just as Refinery Shutdowns Loom

The outlook for crude oil has not been this gloomy since January.


Beware, oil bulls: Just as U.S. oil production sinks low enough to drain supplies, demand is about to fall off a cliff.

With weekly Energy Information Administration data showing U.S. gasoline stockpiles at the highest seasonal level since at least 1990, refiners may shut sooner and for longer ahead of the Labor Day holiday in early September, the end of the driving season.

“With gasoline supplies the highest since April, refiners may pull some projects forward,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “This will take more support away from the market and add to the broader problem of excess supply.”

 Hedge funds’ net-long position in WTI fell by 23,665 futures and options combined to 156,804, CFTC data showed. Shorts surged 24 percent, while longs, or bets on rising prices, increased 1.4 percent.

In other markets, net-bullish bets on Nymex gasoline dropped 18 percent to 1,020 contracts, the lowest since November. Gasoline futures fell 3.8 percent. Net-long wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel decreased 19 percent to 16,640 contracts. Futures slipped 5.4 percent.

“If we’ve gone through the bulk of the summer driving season and haven’t done much damage to gasoline supply, refiners are going to react,” said Michael D. Cohen, an analyst at Barclays Plc in New York. “It will be hard to find investors that are willing to go long.”

Source: Oil Demand Is Headed Over a Cliff Just as Refinery Shutdowns Loom

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Ireland May Just Be Heaven On Earth

Counties Clare and Galway certainly are the most picturesque places I have ever seen. The Emerald Isle is a treat for the eyes.image


As are the Irish women. Especially the ones with blue or green eyes and jet-black hair.image


I may buy a small home here in this area. The old ones are the best.image

The golf is spectacular.image


Did I mention the golf is spectacular?imageimage



Fresh Guinness on tap in Ireland is everything they say it is and more.



The people are the friendliest people you will ever meet and they love Americans.

President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama greet Henry Healy, the President’s distant cousin, after arriving in Moneygall, Ireland, May 23, 2011. The President and First Lady were also welcomed by Counselor Danny Owens, Chair Offaly County, and Counselor John Kennedy, Chair Tipperary County, center. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza) This official White House photograph is being made available only for publication by news organizations and/or for personal use printing by the subject(s) of the photograph. The photograph may not be manipulated in any way and may not be used in commercial or political materials, advertisements, emails, products, promotions that in any way suggests approval or endorsement of the President, the First Family, or the White House.
President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama greet Henry Healy, the President’s distant cousin, after arriving in Moneygall, Ireland, May 23, 2011. The President and First Lady were also welcomed by Counselor Danny Owens.

The roads are ridiculous and were never meant to accommodate two motorized vehicles traveling in opposite directions. Rent the smallest car you possibly can. And they drive on the wrong side of the road, which is absurd. Speaking of absurd, this is a two way road: image

My Amex Gold Card would not cover my insurance, forcing me to add the CDW at the Hertz counter. The aforementioned Friendly Folk turn into madmen when behind the wheel. Beware.image

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