Ursa Desperata – the Ignoble Bearshitter

Wow, I don’t know what’s more priceless; the fact that half of my silver hasn’t even arrived at my house yet, or its value.

Oh wait, no, I’m pretty sure now it’s that second one.

Have you fucking seen RMCF?  Well, have you?  And to think I loaded up on that shit last week, via marginal magic.  I would certainly contemplate taking some off the table here, if I didn’t regard it as a long term holding.  Maybe I will anyway, just to reduce my margin position a little.

All in all, it’s a pretty good Monday, I must say, with my call of BHI also performing favorably.  As you all know well, oil began a coked out marathon this morning back through $70.  Guess what?  It will probably continue this run to just under $75, along with the rest of the market.

And then what, you ask?

And then it will go ape shit in a spiral down three points as doomsayers jump around and proclaim the end of the world…again.

So what can you do to profit from this nonsense?  Pick low trending stocks with high volatility, of course, selling them short around their highs and buying them up around their lows.  Or just shorting them would work; or just going long and selling at the top, for that matter.  That’s my strategy thus far, and it has worked well, despite one or two horrendous mistakes on my part.

If you’re looking for an entry point, I’d hold off and short the next leg higher, while taking profits around crude futures of $74 ½ or just below your stocks recent average high.

Just remember to keep your risk managed and an eye vigilantly on the news for broadcasts of imminent death, like the potential ones that came out last week.  Depending on your stance, good news can prove just as terrible, don’t forget.

Most important, however, is to remember to find and acquire large stable businesses at these (still relatively) cheap prices, preferably ones with nice, ample sized dividends, before the recovery which, regardless of your perspective, will almost assuredly have occurred by the end of next year.

Believe me; I’d love to see this market explode in a fit of pitiable carnage; that’s where I double my fortune.  But if for some, unimaginable reason you’re sitting on cash, waiting for the leg lower, it might be time to take half of that and settle for some nice 5% yield stocks that can help take the edge off, should you prove myopic.

It seems like the coast is clear, with treasuries edging off the gas, a bit.  However, I will not feel “hunky dorie” until oil breaks back through $70, on a tear to the upside.  Until that happens, “Super Cain Caution Mode” will prevail.

Much like a fat chick with a great personality, I do not appreciate for a second that I once had CAT.  Even now, seeing it rip upward past where I initially purchased it; staring in the face what could have been awe inspiring gains; if you asked me if I regret my imbecilic style dance moves, I would tell you: Fuck no, not after those two reports came out.

I would say the first rule to playing around with credit is to avoid associating with unnecessary risk like an Indian in Pakistan.  Ferocious, margin calling brokers outfitted with large hunting knives are always looking for a reason to clean out your carcass.

That out of the way, I’m quite disappointed with the lack of action in BHI.  God willing, this market will play against its recent highs, catapulting oil to new year records, as I get drunk and watch Baker Hughes earn back everything I lost this week.  However, before September ends, I’d like to see this market blead profusely.  I really did think I’d have a chance to load up on another dip before now.  Thanks to foolish creditors willing to extend me lines, I will be waiting readily for the opportunity.

Now, in celebration of all the wonders of life, I’m off to enjoy a fantastic weekend at some local vineyards; where I will be sampling the best wines my state has to offer, with nights spent on the lakefront beneath a splendid view of the stars; and a thick, strong flavored cigar, if I can convince the woman to suffer it.

If, like myself, your week did not tend the way you desired, be sure to take solice in the comforts of your homes; spend time with those whom you work so hard for.  You have my best wishes, sirs.

Happy Labor Day Weekend

Such a wonderful afternoon it is, as I watch the marketplace in silent awe.  CAT is hanging in the mid $44 range, just under where I originally purchased it.  I’ll tell you, I sure do love wasting fucking money.  It’s perhaps my second favorite past time, right under lacerating my knuckles on cheese graters.

Still, disregarding the impetuousness of buying into that name in the first place, I’ll stand by my decision to jump back out the next day, however “fuck”-tarded it may have appeared.  If September holds a draw down in factory utilization in store, you are going to feel it in your long positions.  And if those long positions are now built upon credit, you are going to feel it in a bankruptcy proceeding.

So I flipped ape shit and dumped out for a loss of a percent or two, which works out to roughly half the fancy new money I made last week shorting BHI, MON, and NOV.  However annoying it may be, such reports on egregiously escalating unemployment and factories steadying production levels; they throw off plays on variance by creating large movement.  CAT was, upon review, an especially poor choice because it has been prone, in the past months, to large periods of appreciation and depreciation.

Compare that to BHI, NOV, or MON, which have been very steady moving with nearly cyclic variance.  Lesson learned, then, and I’ll be sure not to cross contaminate strategies in the future.

Meanwhile, I still do not trust this market; there is weakness in the oil futures, gold and silver are running higher (the silver purchase, at least, doesn’t feel poorly done), and treasury yields are exceptionally low.  As of yet, money seems to be flowing from treasuries and the sidelines into equities.  However, it would take only poor sentiment to cause a massive drain out of equities into everything else.  Sitting on a small marginal position with credit, as I am, I will be waiting, quite uninterestingly, throughout most of September, then, the see if we don’t collapse.  If we should proceed with this course, God willing, I will then go all in (plus some), around S&P 700-800.

I am likely getting ahead of myself, though.  There’s still the Fed to consider, along with their money destroying policies, and asinine politicians taxing unitary trades, and a whole plethora of other distractions.

For the meantime, if you aren’t comfortable holding everything, raise only a small amount of cash, between 10-20%.  There’s as good a chance we go back higher, and you don’t want to miss out.  Don’t short here as it’s just a bad idea.  And if you are looking to buy the dip, I’d recommend sticking with companies that are around their moving averages; names like BHI, NOV, RMCF, VZ, or even MO.  Essentially, avoid stocks whose recent valuations incorporate large choppy movements with wild swings of 10% or greater.  As much as I dislike talking about moving averages, if we should happen to go down, and if you absolutely must buy in here, these kinds of stocks are the least likely to take your face off in the process.

Alright, so the ADP report spooked me a little this morning.  I covered half of my margin position, which is now at just under half of my net worth.  Roughly half of this half is a combination of RMCF and the silver I purchased.  I only bought CAT for a trade and will drop it in a heartbeat if I think this move down is going to persist.  It will be an interesting morning, for sure.

Good evening friends and may I welcome you firstly to the pages of this writing. 

Wasting no time, let me say I have been a regular busy body over the last ninety six hours; calling across the financial kingdom to secure my coveted credit instruments of which I gave attention to in my posts.

Pleased as I am, my crusade has been a complete success, and I today was handed the expanse of wealth I sought after.

Seeing the markets melting away by the blaze of terror (and I admit, being somewhat suckered into the mood of the early hour), I quickly undertook an act of flexing my new found muscle.  I made two purchases of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) at $45.60 and $44.14 a share and then followed this up by edging into another position in the Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) at $7.92 a share.

Finally, seeing silver prices maintain resilience in the face of the “Deflationary” Doomsayers, I made my purchase of physical; although well above my originally intended target of $13 an ounce.  I have decided that for the meantime, I shall shape silver into the likeness of a chalice; whose drink held shall be nothing less than my future earned wealth; over, lorded with a cautious eye that I might keep insipid and elusive villains from attenuating my cup with dilutive liquids.  As such, simple dollar cost averaging shall be preferable to price hunting, if only for the meanwhile.

All in all, today I employed over half of my new credit facility, mostly with my bid on CAT, which shall be a short term play I will sell off for gains in the high $36 range.  If this run marks the beginning of the fall of the market (I doubt this considerably, as we have been well overdue for a pullback, oil is not so far gone, and there is much resilience in the precious metals, which are acting well behaved by depreciating just barely), then I will cover the CAT shares for a loss and hedge.  I will say, though, I am somewhat concerned to see the 2 yr. treasury note below a percentage yield.  I have not been watching the treasuries closely and this comes as a surprise.

However, now determined to take full advantage of the markets variance, as I have given attention to for the past weeks, this downward movement is too tempting to let pass by.  The next days will be exhilarating, to say the least.