Donald Trump laid waste to the field yesterday, winning his second straight primary and sending Jeb Bush to the showers.
If Trump were any other candidate the remaining primaries would be academic. What the GOP is supposed to be doing right now is coalescing around the obvious front runner while Ted Cruz and Rubio fight to the death for VP. Instead Republicans seem content to simply keep running these things until anyone other than Trump wins so they can declare him the official nominee.
As Josh Brown noted, yesterday Trump won South Carolina in a walk after picking fights with Apple computer and the most popular Pope ever. Who’s going to stop such a man from getting what he wants?
Of Course Trump Can Win
Because we have the attention span of gnats there is general amazement Trump has made it this far. That’s just silly. Trump is working the same playbook Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger used to become governor of Minnesota and California, respectively. The platforms are different but elections have little to do with policy. They are about emotion. Outsiders all work the same gimmick. “The incumbent doesn’t care about you… I know what real people want and I don’t take shit or handouts. No one believes us but we are going to shock the world“. For as long as we’ve been holding elections this message has struck an emotional chord with American voters.
As it should.
I’m not a political historian but I did spend most of the 80s either lifting weights or getting my brother to take me to see Jesse do his professional wrestling thing at the St. Paul Civic Center. I’ve seen these types of guys come around and watched them closely. People forget but you could count the number of white guys who shaved their heads on one hand until about 2010. Jesse took us mainstream and went from working as a bouncer to governor by playing to our natural desire to flip off the boss.
America elects the leaders it deserves. We take offense at the slightest gesture and are relentless ball-busters. If we don’t have a mortal enemy to fight at any given moment we simply invent one and quickly, mercilessly vanquish it. We are a great and powerful nation, just not quite as much so as we think. The United States is like a successful friend who would be lot cooler if he could just shut-up and stop making every damn thing a mortal competition.
Our bombastic national leanings leave us vulnerable to the occasional Ventura or Schwarzenegger. “We need a tough guy in office!” we cry. “He couldn’t be any worse than the jackasses we have now.”
And on the margins that’s pretty much the case. Minnesota and California survived celebrity leaders just fine. Ventura’s reign came and went. Schwarzenegger proved the governor of California literally has no authority other than death sentence appeals. Both states went back to more conventional candidates eventually.
It hardly matters that there’s little to suggest Trump would be an effective President. If you removed the names of the candidates and just looked at the primary data so far you’d say this was obviously going to come down to Trump vs. Hillary with Trump sitting as a slight favorite.
The Trump Reality
The most Reagan-esque thing about Trump is how easy it is to underestimate him. I was very young at the time and am too lazy to Google on a Sunday morning but I’m 90% sure Jimmy Carter’s 1980 platform was “The guy from Bedtime for Bonzo? Are you f-ing kidding me?“. Carter could do the Sunday Times Crossword with a felt-tip pen in the time it took Reagan to pick through Ziggy but elections aren’t an IQ contest. If you were going on a road trip with Reagan and Jimmy Carter you’d flip the keys to Reagan. Sometimes it’s just that simple.
Much of Trump’s appeal is based on tweed-wearing ninnies blanching at the vulgarian. Trump is clearly having more fun than anyone officially in the race right now. He’s the Last Call candidate. “We’re out of decent people… Might as well take that guy”. If something I’m doing offends Chris Mathews there’s a pretty good chance I’ll do more of it, just for sport.
Trump is a gaseous planet. There’s substance in there someplace but it’s hard to measure. Take his offspring. I have no idea how much Donald had to do with the raising of these children but they are extraordinary by any reasonable measure. Finance is more gossipy than a sewing circle and you don’t hear anything bad about the Trump kids. Ivanka could probably finish 4th or 5th and she’s not even old enough to run.
“It’s easy to be great when your dad is rich” is the biggest beef against the spawn of Trump. It’s BS. The streets of NY are strewn with failed brats of the rich and famous. Ivanka should be doing blow with the Kardashians instead of beaming like a goddess at her dad’s victory party. Trump’s kids haven’t ended up on TMZ. That says good things about the man. Under his odd orange glazing and $50,000 comb-over Trump is genuinely proud of his daughter in this picture I took off my TV last night:
You can’t fake “that’s my girl” pride. That’s as sincere as you’ll see a man and Trump is genuinely likable grinning like a proud fool while his daughter bails out a disastrous speech by the current Mrs. Trump. The guy can’t be a totally vacuous idiot or least one of his kids would be a disaster. That’s just math. Here’s more math: Trump is winning. By the time MSNBC takes him seriously Trump will be gilding the Oval Office.
Hero
Disruption is ugly. Trump has blown up the entire funding system of elections. Jeb Bush blasted through scores of millions and didn’t make a mark in this race. Trump has obviated the 30-second campaign ad simply by being really good on TV and Twitter.
Trump’s legacy will be obliterating the SuperPac. He has monetized charisma via social media. A good Tweet from Trump is worth 2 or 3 Morning In America commercials. The American political machine is being saved from itself, accidentally, by a hyper-levered megalomaniac. A billionaire figured out how to run for President more or less for free.
There’s a certain cosmic beauty to that fact. It speaks well of America to have created such a system. That might be hard to see for a few years but is nonetheless true. Trump is an agent of chaos. We could use a little chaos right now.
More:
If you’re not familiar with Jesse Ventura’s political career here’s a decent piece from FiveThirtyEight.
“It’s Morning Again, In America”
Update: Melania Trump speech
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Everything else aside, can you imagine his wife as the First Lady ? What a trip that would be. And Ivanka too.
That was an amazing 10min of television. Ivanka pulled it out of the dumpster fire.
People are saying this reads like a Trump endorsement. Didn’t intend to… I think it’s amazing theater.
Ivanka is great but his son Eric is a callous, abhorrently racist, self centered prick. This is first hand evaluation.
Can’t speak on Donald Jr.
That would’ explain the Rose Marie treatment of Eric, I suppose.
The common denominator between Trump and Sanders is that they are both saying that mainstream politicians have been selling them out. Sanders says the sellout has been to Wall St and the 1%. Trump says it’s been to China, Mexico and wealthy campaign contributors.
That’s an argument that resonates with all those folks that are unemployed, involuntarily out of the labor force, or toiling in minimum-wage jobs, and those who fear joining the aforementioned. The political establishment is on the cusp of being held accountable for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs that were the livelihood for much of the middle class.
Build a wall and make mexico pay, boycott SBUX, boycott AAPL, the pope is a disgrace. While this sort of thing resonates with voters, if you did the venn diagram you’d probably find a pretty small number who’re loving it all. Are old, fat, white, alienated, protestant men enough to carry an election?
This is perhaps the best read on ‘The Trump Syndrome’ that I’ve yet to come across. It IS entirely about personality and emotion at this point. If I were to read in print all the crap this guy has said without the ‘Trump’ name attached, I’d just attribute it to a random ignorant a-hole and never give it another thought. But the fact that so many boisterously approve and cheer such BS, it makes me just want to scream ‘Merica! Fuck yeah! Let’s not forget both Ventura and Schwarzenegger were terrible, embarrassing statesmen once the election glitter faded.
Jeff – now you have me hoping Trump drafts Jesse for the 2016 VP…. pure glory!
Does Trump’s tie reach all the way to the ground?
Dr. Fly – he unfurls just enough to touch the ground. It’s much, much longer than that.
Bullet proof vest fashion. Really is the dude is not stupid. Talk shit about the religion of peace? Take precautions.
Long ties are a specialty of his. Seriously. Appeals to fat guys. I had one I used for a reality fitness test for years. If it didn’t go down to my junk I skipped lunch.
Pretty low-quality crap clothing in general.
South Carolina shows how Donald Trump has reshaped the Republican party in his image
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/21/11081886/trump-south-carolina-demographics
As a Democrat, I am hoping for Trump to get the GOP nomination, even though it’s hard to imagine the GOP Powers That Be allowing that. My guess is that it would be a piece of cake for Bernie or Hillary to beat him in a general election.
Well, of course. Still not even convinced he’s actually a republican. Just a parody of a dumber version of himself. Not a fan of Bernie, but Hillary would smoke him like Ole’ Bill smoking a joint.
BTW, the smile on Trump’s face did not appear until the very end of the video when his daughter told the audience specific complimentary things about him. I think he was just smiling about being complimented.
Trump certainly is good theater but the show ultimately will close a failure. The rambling incoherence he has used to attract the frustrated Right will bite him in the balls when he has to defend his record and actually lay out specifics. Sooner or later a reporter will ask him if his 45% tariff on Chinese imports will result in voters paying sharply higher prices for their favorite goods. Or, what will happen to large segments of the American economy when you kick out 11 million Latinos? In the end, Americans always reject extreme behavior and while Clinton is no prize she will be viewed by moderate leaning Republicans and Independents as a less dangerous choice. Plus sooner or later Trump will say something stupid even he can’t undo. The Clinton/Trump street fight will be something to behold. Go New Yawk!
Just makes you realize how stupid roughly 17% of America is. The guy is the male version of the real housewives, making fools of people who support him. Amazing how quickly you lose respect for people you thought had a brain, until you see they support Trump. Don’t forget to make America great again, guys! Just hope you find your brain jammed up your butthole first.
I’d just like to say — this reads like a Trump endorsement.
seriously, this was the best & most incisive Trump article … ever
well, at least lately
I do like the fact that Trump isn’t afraid of anyone .. including the Vatican, the Bush-CIA-military industrial complex, el Chapo, you nappo you name it, he ain’t afraid to out the behind closed doors, string-pulling, name-taking, humankind criminals
I like that about him .. and he ain’t the racist & xeonphobe the psuedo-liberal media tries to paint him
I’ve met some crackheads that ain’t fraid of nobody. Not sure I think they are qualified for president. Are we really thrilled that Billy Bob is pumped, cause he feels like Trump is reading his mind? As bad a Bernie is, he makes him seem like the voice of reason. Might as well just do an American Idol competition for president next time. We could just cast our vote with Mountain Dew caps, or empty skoal cans.
I think it’s important for the truth to get brought out into the light of day .. the KKK & the like will be disappointed in the Trump when he turns out not to be the racist they had hoped .. he certainly will be far better than many of our recent presidents
that said, has anyone really delivered on campaign promises?
Juice, regarding delivering on presidential campaign promises, there’s this little detail that most Americans are not aware of. Congress makes the laws.
frog – as well as the fact of the gun pointed at the heads of presidents and the like … listen for about 55 seconds https://youtu.be/_EDknszjcNY?t=29m28s
Interesting, Juice. There are numerous writings on the Depp State, the parts of the government that the president does not control, and Congress and SCOTUS do not control either.
http://www.amazon.com/Deep-State-Constitution-Shadow-Government/dp/0525428348/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1456169733&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Deep+State
It’s real easy for the guy in the video to say that a president should not be so afraid to be progressive. But what if the fears are warranted and realistic? Kennedy was not afraid to be progressive. And how did that help Kennedy? And how did it help the nation? Johnson then rose to the presidency and had to stay in Vietnam, saying “I’ll give them their war.” Dead presidents do not get many progressive policies enacted.
Great Article/Post. Thank you.
Best article I have seen written on the man & the phenomenon. Well done Mr. Macke.
http://www.americabutbetter.com/
Thanks very much!
If America is dumb enough to elect this orange doofus, then yes, he’s the president we deserve.
I’d love to see the four year dumpster fire that electing him would generate, personally. I’m morbidly curious. Can you imagine Trump State of The Union addresses? More interesting than 4 years of Bernie shrugging his shoulders because no one in the legislative branch will even sniff at 80% of his ideas.
Bravo and 100% correct about his kids.
I know Don JR from back in 1999 philly PA.
Stand up citizen.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Thanks, Chuck. I’ve heard good things about him as well. Have a great day, Macke
Re: Trump’s kids. Someone in the family has to be capable of dealing with reality and a narcissist’s kids or spouse may take that role. That doesn’t mean the narcissist is capable of dealing with reality.
Trump has his shit together … No family off script I like it. Melania? I can get used to seeing her for the next 8 years ..listening to her not so much
I felt bad for her. (Typing that I realize it’s probably the first time anyone has expressed such a sentiment towards the gorgeous European who married the billionaire… Probably in her whole life).
Mrs Cruz (plus hubby) Is friends with my wife. She’s a very impressive woman. He’s much more normal than he seems on TV. Super earnest. Likable. Really.
Having met just about every famous person I’ve ever admired I can say this: they’re all just people.
Those I know who have met Cruz can’t wait to take a shower afterwards. Like most con men he has the ability present an affable and earnest demeanor. Hope you checked for your watch after shaking his hand. Yes, he’s just people. But then again one can say that about every despicable person living or dead. Sounds like the bright light of political stardom has impaired your vision in this instance. I’m surprised.
With respect to Trump and Ivanka. Yes he has “that’s my girl” pride. That’s certainly admirable and she is very impressive. But of course she is embarrassed by his rantings. All the comments he makes about her looks and that he would date her if she weren’t his daughter are very creepy and certainly an insight into his meter-bending narcissism. Trump is skilled in many ways but ultimately he will fall to body blows delivered by a skilled political operation that won’t cower like his Republican opponents. Sooner or later Trump will have to answer the question.. “Where’s the beef?”
Psychopaths and also narcissists are often very likable, until you get to know them well. Nothing unusual about that. And they often have very capable kids and/or spouses. Because someone has to be competent in the family somehow. Psychopaths and narcissists are rather interesting to analyze– from a distance, of course. There are some good books about these folks.
The Psychopath Test by Jon Ronson
Snakes in Suits: When Psychopaths Go to Work by Paul Baiak and Robert D. Hare
I notice there are 1228 books on Amazon when I search under Narcissist, and 2748 books under Psychopath. I guess lots of people are writing and reading about them. For good reason. They have a disproportionate effect on societies, and more of their effect is bad than good.
Great great post.
I tend to think his probability of winning the GOP is high, but not quite as high as many think due to a single move that could change the game.
Rubio or Cruz could beat Trump with a simple, single move. Ask the other to drop out and promise the other the VP. It’s a wonder they haven’t done it yet, but they may be caught thinking the other should drop out, not them, and they each may be delusional enough to think they can still win without the others dropping out.
Trump benefits from so many other choices available. Some of those choices are dropping out, but the clock’s ticking and the delegates are piling up.