Janus is a Roman god of two faces; one looking forward and one back to the past. Like all gods of human creation, it’s not about divinity but the earthly inventors. The problem with Janus is he’s giving you a false choice. Janus is a god for dreamers and whiners.
Living in the now is how you get all the money and have all the fun. Doing anything else is a sucker’s game. Here’s our field position this year, now, and a few things I’m watching today:
On January 20 the S&P 500 fell to 1812 intraday, just 8 points below the Ebola Low of October 2014. From there we rallied more than 3% intraday, closing down only 1% (see: “Stocks Rally -1%!“). The ensuing 8 trading days saw 5 higher, 3 lower and each painful in its own way. The S&P is 9% off the highs, 7% off the lows and beating the hell out of just about everyone.
This is healthy. It’s good. Markets are supposed to be hard. That’s why it pays so well to be good at them.
Investors are chasing good news higher. Google (never, ever Alphabet) drove it to the highest market cap in American history. Specialty retailer Michael Kors is killing shorts pre-market, up 17% and pushing $48. The 1 year range on KORS is ~$74 to $35. Long-term investors have gotten killed. Newbie shorts mowed down big.
Watching Chipotle today. The shares have been ripping off a $399 low and are sitting at $475. Fly loves the stock into earnings tonight. I think it has bounce room to $540 but the estimates are still too high. If you want to gauge investor appetite for risk Chipotle is your tell of the day.
More in a bit…
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Only way to love CMG into earnings is with someone else’s money.
CMG is dead. plain and simple. come back it this thing in 2 years
Looks like investor risk appetite is trending upwards.
I think I have my Nice Bear Self Off again. yes that darn SPX 1880 will be a problem again, but it will be taken out clean this time and we break the 1812 low when Yellen next week can’t be the uber Dove in front of congress when they ask her WHY we aren’t much better after all the Money the FOMC put at risk. Plus, China is going on VaCa…less buyers out there means normally softer market.Bottomline, my only true Bear Fear are Central Bankers and they won’t act until March. China is pumping their banks with Cash this Week cuz so many take out money to fill the RED ENVELOPES, but that is short lived too. Our Global Economic Data is so ugly, we are going down, it just seems like it is taking forever to do it.