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Maybe this is the week of the “Paul Ryan Feel Good,” or just the week when Joe Biden rolled himself in a child’s wading pool full of tar and scrap paper, and then set himself alight.

Maybe the world feels a little more optimistic these days than they did even three weeks back.  Maybe that’s just an optical (auditory?) illusion.  Whatever the reason, the dollar is finally starting to budge a little bit, and we may be sniffing a break of $82.00 within the next week or so.  As a result, the risk trade, especially in the precious metals, refineries and earl & gas plays has finally begun to become more appetizing here.

You know I love SLW, and it’s really looking strong again here.  After consolidating on the 200-week moving average for ten weeks (but not breaking below it, important!), SLW is now over it’s 13-week and 34-week moving average.    Above $30 right now at a close today of $31.65, you might want to set a buy stop right at that low $30-ish level.  It’s worth waiting a bit for here, as the last couple of days have been explosive.  Almost always, SLW will reward the patient hand.  Again, SIL is for you if you do not want to own individual silver stocks.

On the gold side, I don’t think you could do much better than RGLD.  Right now it’s forming the right side of a mini-cup, and I really think the next time it breaches $80.00, it will be home free — flying in virgin territory.  It’s absolutely astounding what this stock has done over the last 10 years.  In 2001, it was trading at less than $2.00.  They’ve only gotten stronger in their royalty finance commitments recently, and now appear to be stepping into the big leagues.  I also like AUY, as mentioned, and of course GDXJ.

Last but not least, I like the refiners.  I love my WNR, and still clutch it, but for my money, I think PSX warrants a lot of attention too. After it settles down from its most recent breakout on the weekly chart, I think it’s a purchase at the $39.00 level. Whether it’s the year of the monkey or the Age of Aquarius, for some reason refiners are hot again, and it’s time to take advantage.

I think this string will run at least to the end of the month, especially if the dollar continues to cooperate.  At that point, however, I’m going to start at least selling calls, if not whole swaths of stocks.   This POTUS race is going to tighten, and I don’t think that will be good for market breaking into mid-September.  Until then, however, let’s play that grasshopper music.

Best to you all.

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Best.

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The other night I saw the Fly
And Jeremy and Chuck Am I.
Chess and Wine and Gappy Too
(Might sound like three, but only two)
Woodshedder bedecked in denim
Scotty with lovely wife, God bless’im

Cain Thaler came on wheelchair made
of Bamboo- wire and cut jade
Ancient even past his years
He breathed blue smoke and shed dry tears
For Detroit his home benighted so
By corrupt gov’t and cold grey snow

Fly made toasts to kith and kin
Whilst Jemmy’s stomach near augured in.
Gapp and Chuck, wolfish rakes
Assessed the women (even Jake’s)
Yet stayed their hands and played the part
Of gentlemen, with Gentle Heart

RC of course, the Silent Giant
Hove to the table, his palette pliant
Without his better half’s restraint
Drew ample beverage, drew ample plate.

One party missing, and well missed
The liberal heart, whom Nature kissed
No Cronkite and no Greenman showed
To plead ‘gainst MONstah, and for “O.”

Alas!

Progenic duty stayed the bars
(And further frolics with cigars)
Sent “the Jakes” home by one AM
Whilst Friends of Fly (and Chess and Jem)
Went forth with blessings from us both
For IBC, for friends and “Growth.”

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Someone claimed I haven’t posted in two months! Calumny!
It’s been a mere one month. It’s only seemed like two in our accelerated world. Things have slowed, or blowed, or both, and I won’t bore you with details, but I should be able to post somewhat more often, at least in August.

Did I mention I had to cut my vacation short and come home three days early? Yeah, I know, boo hoo, at least I have a job, right? What right have I to complain when this is the lot I’ve chosen? Right. None.

Meanwhile, while I’ve been resting my keyboard, the silver markets have begun to show signs of life again. If you are not in EXK and AG, you’ve still got time, but probably not a tonne of it. Likewise SLW which had a nice move today. Dollars to donuts the lesser bodies like MVG and SSRI will also begin to rise alongside the champions. Like usual, the real moves will be made in the Fall for those stocks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt you to start accumulating now. As usual, SIL is a great “combinator” if you don’t want to agonize over the usual suspects.

Gold stocks have become almost too annoying to mess with on the individual side, so outside of RGLD, and maybe AUY, I am not going to recommend you dabble in anything but the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ.

Before you ask, yes, I still own the rare earths (QRM and AVL, especially), despite their declines. I just add more on whims. What the hell, they are popcorn cheap and I am quite certain they will Bela Lugosi when the dollar heads down one more time this coming Election Season.

What’s got me in “near term buy” mode however, are a couple of stocks I’ve owned for a while that are showing nice promise right now. One is nat gas former superstar ECA, which looks beautiful, especially on a pullback to the $21.00 range. Another is PSX, which I “inherited” when it spun off of COP, back in April (COP being one of the Samurai Seven along with fat dividend gold stock AEM, which has also risen from the grave as of late). And along with PSX, I will take some HFC, another refiner. I like them both at $38 if you are looking for a buy range.

I will endeavor to be more faithful to you my friends. The spirit is always willing, as you know… the flesh? Well…

Slainte.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fSEjlLQcRY 450 300]

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The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month.  That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers.  $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere.  Isn’t this fun?  Why didn’t Japan think of this??

Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap?  Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer.  Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you?  On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles.  PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.

I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe.  One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment.  You guys think trading stocks is a bitch?  Try something more illiquid next time…

Best to you all.

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What’s that sound, you say? Those of you with extremely sensitive hearing probably heard a dog whistle this morning, after the absolutely execrable unemployment numbers came out. Given that the increase in unemployment, the lack of job growth and the near-frozen economic capability of our scared scat-less private sector leaves the Powers that Be with very little in the Hope and Change department, the only remaining response is a toot on the dog whistle.

And who’s that St. Bernard that’s come-a-trotting with a big barrel of printer’s ink secured beneath his hairy jowls? Why that’s St. Ben-ard Bernake!   He knows that there’s no FacePlant Book rally coming to secure the 2012 elections and therefore his place on the Iron Throne of Westeros.  So the only other plan to help us out here is to pump the press and let the liquidity flow.  Heck, what are you going to do, anyway? Buy Euros??

No, but there’s always RGLD, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW, EXK, AG, ANV, IAG, and of course, BAA.  Tons of other “beaten downs” as well that will make someone a lot of money, but as you know, my time here is limited.

Go out there and feast.  It’s Printing Day.

Best to you all.

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As some of you know, I’ve been weathering this storm by deploying cash sparingly into what I consider to me vastly oversold conditions in the PM markets, especially the miners.  Given historical metrics, the current $HUI and $XAU are pricing gold in the $800-1000 range.   Needless to say, this has historically been an opportunity for those beleagured names.

Now I know the PM space has not been a happy one as of late, but given that nothing has changed with respect to the global liquidity situation, I am not convinced that there is some change in the current bull trajectory afoot.   It appears that we are now approaching a long term support area as well.

As my good friend Gary Savage over at the Smart Money Tracker has been kind enough to point out, the 75-week simple moving average has been support for this bull for over ten years now with the brief exception of the 2008 meltdown, which marked the bottom of an eight year cycle event.   Right now that line lies at $1591 an ounce, which we are (briefly, I think) below this morning .  As a result, I think this is the time to mince into the market and make some quick coins.

I was not in the office yesterday, so I did not report my buys in SLW and AEM, and I apologize.  It appears, however, I may have been a bit early.   Today, I will add to those small purchases and throw some RGLD and perhaps even GDXJ in that mix.   Make no mistake the juniors have been murdered here, and quarts of my blood are being transfused into them as we speak.   When these things bounce, however, it’s going to be swift and eye-boggling.   Go small until then, but be ready, as I think it’s going to be very soon….

Until then, I continue to be your honarable blood donor, down here at the Red Cross…

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm5ovAtCc4g 450 300]

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It’s Oaks and Derby time in the Bluegrass, and the Jakester’s stocks are plungeroonying like so many suicidal swan divers off a Wall Street skyscraper.  My response? I shrug and hold, as I know we are approaching a cycle low in the commodity sector, and gold and silver prices are hanging hard even as the stocks in the Gold Bug Index (Baby $HUI) continue to squeeze my upper heart ventricles like 45 years of excessive bacon.  There’s a reason I feel that pressure and it’s because the gold and silver miners are woefully under-performing relative to their underlying commodities… at an almost historical level:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This chart has me hankering to add to my recent purchases, frankly.   But in the interest of capital preservation, I am going to space out buys over the next couple of days.  I am going to start with some AEM (I like the dividend), and then add to my SLW, EXK and yes, RGLD.   Three year bargains in ANV, IAG, IVN and many others.  Look around, shop carefully.  Watch the rebound back to that 200 day EMA above.  Interesting, no?

I am at the track with multiple clients tomorrow so I’ll have little time in between gambling like I know what I’m talking about and sipping juleps, but I will try to check in on you all with my fancy new phone, God willing.

Best to you all, and Happy Derby!

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