Not my Yanks, that’s for sure
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Drawdown days are a bitch, I don’t care how well hedged you are. Some of my positions took 7 and even 8% haircuts today, but mostly that was the small ones. The bigger ones were hedged, so the bleeding was not entirely egregious. I was almost entirely out of my AGQ with only 400 shares left, so that was not a horrible caining I took even in that double slammer today, given I formerly owned 3k shares.

Word to the wise, the $HUI index is oversold already on the deep dive it did today, so I would not dwell long in the land of shorting this gold bull.  You are far more likely to receive  profitable thrills by waving your junk at a basket filled with hungry ferrets.

Of all the single precious issues out there, I like IVN and GSS to rebound first.  Don’t ask me why, just attend to my Spider Senses.   I also like almost precious REE, if it ever comes back down to earth again.  

In the non-metals world, I still love the Trannies and their strength here, relative to the scaredy cat sell off.   I especially love UPS, and you should look to add to this core holding if it can dip just a little below to it’s 50-day EMA at $66.60 or so:

RGLD is another core hold  you should be looking to glom here.   I will be adding to it, to ANV and to SLW very shortly. 

Watch the dollah!   More tomorrah!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwkpfSMOyXU 450 300]

A Fistful of Awesome!

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Yep, I went and did it again today.   I didn’t like the pin action in the price of gold, not to mention the dollar, and so hedged most of my major positions, including SLW, ANV, EGO and RGLD, with short calls, just slightly in the money, one month out (Novembers). 

I also trimmed my AGQ once again, selling another 400 shares at $104+.  I now have only a measly 400 shares left from my original 3,000.   We are retardedly over the 200 day moving average in silver, which just refuses to stand down, but AGQ will be a hard break when it does finally succumb to gravity, I’d contend.  

The good I see ahead is in the precious metals, big surprise, no?   That’s why I’m only shorting calls, rather than selling big chunks, though I did sell 30% of EXK yesterday, instead of selling the calls.   At prices below $5, however, and really even below $10, I see there being little difference in the price of a call, and the price of a stock, so I just sell the underlying to a point where I’m comfortable holding through the storm, and then I just hang on.

The bad I saw today, was in the bank stocks.  I thought at first that this mortgage gig was a smokescreen, readied by The Powers That Are  to scare some valuations down for coming bank M&A’s.   That thesis may still be correuct, but I was given pause by the action of the bank index ($BKX) today.   Observe:

 After all this hooplah since early September, you’d think the financials would have something better to show us than the above, no?   And yet, it’s looking bad for now.   I shall revisit my “possible takeover” thesis later in the year, as I still believe there’s a strong percentage still in betting on a flurry of acquisitions coming off at the end of this year.

In the meantime, I dumped the last of my BBT, FITB and even JPM.   I may buy back one of those after this storm has passed here, but for now, cash is better than banks.

The ugly is none other than the mighty U.S. dollar, which seemed to get it’s bounce today, off the $76.40 low area and is now almost 30 cent higher at $76.70.   

This bounce should give you an opportunity to consolidate some positions, and perhaps enter others.  I have my eye on more GSS, which is one of the few gold and silver plays that is not yet overbought.  But be ready to pounce with all alacrity on the whole universe, as this pullback may be short lived.

Or, not lived at all. 

My best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNc5o9TU0t0&feature=related 450 300]

Jimmy Page, eat your heart out!
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You may be familiar with my call that gold and silver are overbought and should be pulling back here. Well, I still stand by that call, and as proof, today I sold approximately 25 to 40% of my EXK, BAA, AGQ, CDE, respectively .

Note I touched not any of my ANV or SLW, or IAG or RGLD, EGO or PAAS or any of my “core group.”    The reason is the Stairway to Heaven I’ve seen appearing in the charts, particularly the silver commodity’s chart.  First the weekly:

Yes, that’s our eighth week of “steady Eddy” up move we’re witnessing there.   And yet, look at how boringly stair step it seems… almost as if it is some kind of controlled move.  

It looks almost as boring — and maybe alarming — on the daily charts.   Behold:

Not a whole heckuva a lot of pullback in that stairway, eh?  That’s what’s kind of freaking me out from two angles.  First, this is not a “parabolic move” but rather a slow stair-step.  It’s highly unusual for such a volatile metal.  And before you start getting crazy about silver’s tiny market (true), the recent gold commodity charts look exactly like this as well.

It’s almost like someone gave a signal in August that it was time to swap shit dollars — ever so quietly and surreptitiously, like a cafeteria thief replacing roast turkey slices with wedges of liverwurst on all the whole grain wheat sandwich bread — for beautiful ingots of silver and gold.

This action gives me pause, even though I took some mighty profits today in the more volatile PM’s  (I also sold half my shitty BBT position, and trimmed or got rid of some outliers like JAH, KFN and a little VECO). 

This could be traders slowly covering short positions, I guess, in which case, we should ready for a strong pullback, as I’ve noted.   However, this could also be the precursor, the yeast in the bread dough, so to speak, of the parabolic move that I do expect later on this year or in the Spring. 

So we will wait and see, with bated breath, whether Christmas comes early this year… or right… on…. time!

Best to you all.

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Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility;
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, [conjure] up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favor’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let it pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o’erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O’erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill’d with the wild and wasteful ocean.

–William Shakespeare, Henry V

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Yes, it appears she’s ready again.   So, while we are waiting for the gold and silver pullback (hint, ANV is almost done!), take a few dollars of this play of our old girl ENTR once more:

As I mentioned in The PPT today, I expect even beloved SLW and EXK will pull back a bit here, so let some off, or just take a rest.   It shant be a long one.   And likely the semi news this evening will help our friend ENTR scale new heights once again.

My best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufn_pUVzZBg&feature=related 450 300]

(The 1970’s are back in California, at least)

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It ain’t easy keeping up with my family for a long weekend mini-vacation let me tell you.   It seems we did it all this time around– the full blown resort/ winery grand loop/ top-eating halls/ Napa-Sonoma scenario, and even added in the occasional valley balloon flight and a “little” family party at a relative’s Fairfax home in the hills.   I think we also greatly depleted the stock of the district, so it’s a good thing that harvest is a little late this year.

Because let me tell you — they’re going to need more grape jooce (sic) when we finally vacate the air space.

Going into this week I am going to exercise some caution.  I still have a little bit of my ANV and SLW hedges left and I may add to them perhaps get some GDX and even GDXJ covered calls.  Both gold and silver are magnificently stretched here and I’m looking for a respite at least.    I woulodn’t be surprised if that respite went hand in hand with a similar pullback on the SPX.

To that end, I may trim my sails on some of my stock positions also, including TCK, TC and ANDE — the non-precious Jacksonians.  I will keep all of my MON as that seems to have a counter-cyclical trend to its trading recently.

Besides, it’s a long term hold play, and I’d be comfortable adding lower, so why sell some now?

I am bone weary and getting up early tomorrow to take on the San Fran Airport.   I will try to check in via Crackberry, but until then bon chance!

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REYOJDANQ0k 450 300]

(Remember when Kanye was witty?)

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We’ve finally done it…  we’ve broken into “free air” on the Miner’s Chart — the venerable $HUI Gold Bugs Index.   Come see it for yourself:

I did a lot of things today in celebration of our free air moment.   First, I covered quite a few of my hedges in ANV and SLW and GDX, some at a loss some at break even.  The ANV was particularly egregious, but we’ll try not to dwell on that.  I still have about a 20% hedge on SLW and about 30% of ANV still hedged.   You’ll note the overbought stochastics and relative strength indicators on the above chart, I’m sure.  That’s my reason for retaining a little hedge.

But let’s not kid ourselves, the dollar is busted, and headed all the way to Target #4 without even a passing “hey howaya?” to Target #3.  Cheggitout:

Sure, we may get a little bounce at $77, but look at what happened after that last bounce.   No, I think the dollar is dead as Jacob Marley on burnt toast.

So please, get out of any silly short positions you may be contemplating “holding out” for.  There’s far more easy hunting out there than going after an Alaskan grizzly with a plastic butter knife.

In addition to releasing most of my hedges today, I also doubled down on an initial IAG long call position (DEC $17.50’s) at $1.60 a piece today.  My original purchase of 80 was at 90 cents each.   I expect IAG to be over $20 before Santa arrives.   I also added a touch more EXK, which was gluttonous of me.  I now own more of that than I even do SLW, though the share price is lower.

Of course, I think EXK will be the next SLW, so there’s a method to my sleep deprived madness.  I also really like RGLD here, and it looks like it’s ready to launch once again.  

My best to you, and to yours.

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