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Feel Like Plunging Yet?

EpicFail

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Soon, soon I will be a plunger yet again. Morsels are looking tasty already, and I don’t think gold and silver have too much farther to go here.  There’s a lot of support for physical silver at this $31.80-ish level and I may choose to nibble there tomorrow if we get one more rip to the downside. Then stuff will be on sale like you read about.  SLW at $37?, AG at below $22? RGLD at more than 15% from recent highs? Are you kidding me? These are the times when men can be gluttonous, in a sippy-cup kind of way (small sips, gradual like).

I will have time to speak about the recent Obaminations when I’ve got ten minutes to assemble my thoughts.  Needless to say, last night was more revelation.  I think I’ve come to the reluctant conclusion that the guy is just not very bright after all.  The consistent throwing of constituency after constituency under the bus…. when will it end?  Last night, he gave up Virginia by blowing up Newport News and its naval stronghold.  Ah well, who needs those bayonets, save our own guts?

 

Maybe he’ll talk about how he hates Buckeye nuts, next? One can only hope… (for change?)

Best to you all.

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QE: Quantitative Election

biden

 

After tonight’s “debate,” I offer a brain re-set.  You’re welcome:

 

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpZhZAr1cQU&feature=related 450 300]

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Look you, I don’t want to hear any shit.  Do you know what it’s like to have every client you’ve worked with over the last 36 months wanting to get out the door by Christmas? No, of course you don’t, because we’ve never had a bizarre set of economic circumstances like this before, where the difference between getting a deal done in this tax year and the next are approaching 30% of the value of a transaction.

Let me explain…  A lot of people don’t understand that, Fiscal Cliff aside, there’s already an additional 4% Obamacare tax  that’s going to be added to capital gains on any deal that has the misfortune of closing in 2013 instead of 2012.  Then there’s the possibility of the Bush-era tax cuts lapsing, and you add another nickel, minimum.  That’s nine percent more than what you’d be paying on this side of 2012, or a 60% increase in your gains tax burden.  And most of my clients are people who have close to zero basis, since they tend to be folks who started their companies, or took them over from pop at some pocket change transfer price.  So if we are talking about a $100 million dollar sale price, that’s $9 million extra you have to pay Uncle Barack next year if things stay where they are right now.

I don’t care how freaking rich you are, a nine million dollar delta is a ball sweat inducing bill that you’d want to avoid.  And that’s been the consensus of everyone I’m talking to right now.

The other problem with rising capital gains rates is they depress valuations by cutting into after tax returns on capital.  That means not only does one’s purchase price get taxed at an increasing rate, but the multiple paid on a business will be lower also.  Can you say “double whammy?”  (That’s why the public markets will get rocked if Obama wins as well. )

As a result, my life has been a nightmare as of late.  If I’m not on the road doing management meetings (with dinners, lunches, breakfasts, etc) , I’m doing back-to-back-to-back conference calls.   I’m just hoping I can get some of these guys through the funnel.  I already know they all can’t fit.  Such is life.

So I’m sick of apologizing, but please do know I’m keeping an eye on the market enough to signal to you when I think it might be time to get in or out.  Despite the fluctuations and the newest Romney Ryan positivity, I don’t think it’s time to get back into the precious in a giant way.  I think there’s gonna be a nice scare here before Turkey Day to shake some folks out, and then it’ll be time to pounce for the Santa Claus Cokefest and a Smile.

I liked TC’s move today, as I have twelve boatloads of that radioactive shit, having ingested a tonne when it dropped to the $2 level (averaging down, don’t cha know?).  I remain solid in my thinking that miner will become trade bait for some large, cash-rich insitution.  Also, RGLD just did a 5 million share offering with Goldman at $91.  I think this will knock the price down over the next couple of days, maybe even below $90.  If so, that is a huge gift, of which you should take full  advantage…

Best to you all.

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This Clown Show Must End

clown
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You guys know me by now, I hope.  Therefore, you are well aware that I am about as conservative a person as you are going to meet, this side of the ossified gentlemen mouldering away in the leather chairs of the University Club, NYC.  And with some quirkly exceptions, I’d say that conservatism marries both economic and social philosophies. I am pro-life for instance (both ways).

Despite all that, and despite my pro-life advocacy, I must join the growing multitudes calling for the resignation of this confused individual, Todd Akin. Truth be told, I was not really following this Missouri race until the bizarre controversy stemming from this man’s odd analysis of rape (“legitimate” or otherwise!) and pregnancy bubbled up this past Monday evening. You can read more about it in the attached article.

What I do know about Missouri is that Clair McCaskill was/is not well loved, as I’ve friends in various parts of Missouri, including St. Louis and some of the more rural areas. As far as the recent well contested primary (11 bidders!), however, I knew nothing.

I’ve since learned that Akin rose above the horde to win narrowly in the primaries, with the help of statist religous Huckster Mike Huckabee. There are few “Republicans” I loathe more than Huckster, who mingles self-righteous smarm with typical statist RINO “do gooding,” courtesy of the taxpayer’s dime. The fact that Akin is associated with Huckster immediately puts him in the negative column for me, no matter what his dopey views on pregnancy via rape. Moreover, his views, whether misstated or not, do nothing but cast a very serious position off the moral high ground. For that alone he should be interred in the “foot in mouth” Hall of Fame, and summarily dumped. Missouri deserves better than McCaskill for sure, but they do not deserve this dope.
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On the matter of Peter Thiel, the FaceBook Sour Grapes and the Cramer Clown Show… I will say merely this:

Peter Thiel took considerable risk by pledging a substantial amount of his (then) small VC fund to the then little-known idea of “the Facebook,” which was at the time being dwarfed by MySpace and other rivals. He waited some five years to get liquid on that investment, which for a VC is typical-to-lengthy. Almost 100% of VC’s have a business model that states “sell at the IPO” as a matter of fiduciuary duty (they are not in the stock asset managment business but the new venture business). That Thiel did what he told his investors he would do when he raised his funds, thereby fulfilling his duty to them is quotidian. That Facebook was valued at a very high multiple of current (and future!) earnings was a combination of cultural knowledge and market hype. There is no arguing these facts, this side of logic and sanguinity.

There has been some talk that perhaps Thiel should give up his board seat as he has released his investors from their Facebook venture investment (they are of course free to buy the company on the open market, but that’s not venture investing). I might agree with this, given Thiel’s only remaining investment is his own, at 5.6 million shares (oh, you missed that piece in all the invective, did you?). That said, he was an original investor in the company, so the board may value his perspective and advice at this point. Whatever the end, however, it is certainly a board decision as to whether Thiel remains or not. Thus far, he has conducted himself rationally and like a gentleman, all noxious statements by Daytrade Cramer aside.
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This temporary pullback in the miners is a mere bag of shells. I am carrying on with my trades as described.

Good day, sirs.
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Brave New World

biden

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Maybe this is the week of the “Paul Ryan Feel Good,” or just the week when Joe Biden rolled himself in a child’s wading pool full of tar and scrap paper, and then set himself alight.

Maybe the world feels a little more optimistic these days than they did even three weeks back.  Maybe that’s just an optical (auditory?) illusion.  Whatever the reason, the dollar is finally starting to budge a little bit, and we may be sniffing a break of $82.00 within the next week or so.  As a result, the risk trade, especially in the precious metals, refineries and earl & gas plays has finally begun to become more appetizing here.

You know I love SLW, and it’s really looking strong again here.  After consolidating on the 200-week moving average for ten weeks (but not breaking below it, important!), SLW is now over it’s 13-week and 34-week moving average.    Above $30 right now at a close today of $31.65, you might want to set a buy stop right at that low $30-ish level.  It’s worth waiting a bit for here, as the last couple of days have been explosive.  Almost always, SLW will reward the patient hand.  Again, SIL is for you if you do not want to own individual silver stocks.

On the gold side, I don’t think you could do much better than RGLD.  Right now it’s forming the right side of a mini-cup, and I really think the next time it breaches $80.00, it will be home free — flying in virgin territory.  It’s absolutely astounding what this stock has done over the last 10 years.  In 2001, it was trading at less than $2.00.  They’ve only gotten stronger in their royalty finance commitments recently, and now appear to be stepping into the big leagues.  I also like AUY, as mentioned, and of course GDXJ.

Last but not least, I like the refiners.  I love my WNR, and still clutch it, but for my money, I think PSX warrants a lot of attention too. After it settles down from its most recent breakout on the weekly chart, I think it’s a purchase at the $39.00 level. Whether it’s the year of the monkey or the Age of Aquarius, for some reason refiners are hot again, and it’s time to take advantage.

I think this string will run at least to the end of the month, especially if the dollar continues to cooperate.  At that point, however, I’m going to start at least selling calls, if not whole swaths of stocks.   This POTUS race is going to tighten, and I don’t think that will be good for market breaking into mid-September.  Until then, however, let’s play that grasshopper music.

Best to you all.

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Best.

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The Other Night I Saw the Fly

Fly
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The other night I saw the Fly
And Jeremy and Chuck Am I.
Chess and Wine and Gappy Too
(Might sound like three, but only two)
Woodshedder bedecked in denim
Scotty with lovely wife, God bless’im

Cain Thaler came on wheelchair made
of Bamboo- wire and cut jade
Ancient even past his years
He breathed blue smoke and shed dry tears
For Detroit his home benighted so
By corrupt gov’t and cold grey snow

Fly made toasts to kith and kin
Whilst Jemmy’s stomach near augured in.
Gapp and Chuck, wolfish rakes
Assessed the women (even Jake’s)
Yet stayed their hands and played the part
Of gentlemen, with Gentle Heart

RC of course, the Silent Giant
Hove to the table, his palette pliant
Without his better half’s restraint
Drew ample beverage, drew ample plate.

One party missing, and well missed
The liberal heart, whom Nature kissed
No Cronkite and no Greenman showed
To plead ‘gainst MONstah, and for “O.”

Alas!

Progenic duty stayed the bars
(And further frolics with cigars)
Sent “the Jakes” home by one AM
Whilst Friends of Fly (and Chess and Jem)
Went forth with blessings from us both
For IBC, for friends and “Growth.”

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Someone claimed I haven’t posted in two months! Calumny!
It’s been a mere one month. It’s only seemed like two in our accelerated world. Things have slowed, or blowed, or both, and I won’t bore you with details, but I should be able to post somewhat more often, at least in August.

Did I mention I had to cut my vacation short and come home three days early? Yeah, I know, boo hoo, at least I have a job, right? What right have I to complain when this is the lot I’ve chosen? Right. None.

Meanwhile, while I’ve been resting my keyboard, the silver markets have begun to show signs of life again. If you are not in EXK and AG, you’ve still got time, but probably not a tonne of it. Likewise SLW which had a nice move today. Dollars to donuts the lesser bodies like MVG and SSRI will also begin to rise alongside the champions. Like usual, the real moves will be made in the Fall for those stocks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt you to start accumulating now. As usual, SIL is a great “combinator” if you don’t want to agonize over the usual suspects.

Gold stocks have become almost too annoying to mess with on the individual side, so outside of RGLD, and maybe AUY, I am not going to recommend you dabble in anything but the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ.

Before you ask, yes, I still own the rare earths (QRM and AVL, especially), despite their declines. I just add more on whims. What the hell, they are popcorn cheap and I am quite certain they will Bela Lugosi when the dollar heads down one more time this coming Election Season.

What’s got me in “near term buy” mode however, are a couple of stocks I’ve owned for a while that are showing nice promise right now. One is nat gas former superstar ECA, which looks beautiful, especially on a pullback to the $21.00 range. Another is PSX, which I “inherited” when it spun off of COP, back in April (COP being one of the Samurai Seven along with fat dividend gold stock AEM, which has also risen from the grave as of late). And along with PSX, I will take some HFC, another refiner. I like them both at $38 if you are looking for a buy range.

I will endeavor to be more faithful to you my friends. The spirit is always willing, as you know… the flesh? Well…

Slainte.

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Back in Black

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fSEjlLQcRY 450 300]

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The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month.  That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers.  $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere.  Isn’t this fun?  Why didn’t Japan think of this??

Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap?  Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer.  Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you?  On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles.  PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.

I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe.  One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment.  You guys think trading stocks is a bitch?  Try something more illiquid next time…

Best to you all.

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