_________________________

Options expiry week always makes for fun times in the already-volatile precious metal markets, and this week was no exception.  In fact, I’m thinking of just posting pictures of Care Bears and soothing contra-alto laden Carpenter’s videos during these weeks in the future.   I think that policy would be much better for our collective gastro-intestinal health.

I guess we should have been even more wary this week, as the POG and it’s idiot sister, the POS, were both due for cycle lows on top of their collective miners’ options’ expiry.    That combination made for some sickening drops this week, and now, I contend, for some very attractive purchase prices.

When was the last time you were able to buy SLW under $30.00?  Howabout ANV under $30??  Oh, sorry, that was yesterday.  You snooze, you lose.  SSRI looks like a nice pinch right now, if you’re looking for a cherry.   EXK and AG in that order, remain the best of the silver surfers, however.

For those wading back in, the ETFs would be the order of the day… I like them in this order — GDXJ, SIL, GDX, and for the brave of heart — NUGT (real small now!).

I made mention earlier in the week that I want to see the price of gold ($GOLD) hold that 34-week EMA.   It will be interesting to see if it does get back there today…as that’s $50 north of current prices at $1642.80.  There is precedence for closing very briefly below there on a weekly basis — way back in April of 2009, when we were just crawling out of the muck.  Could this be a similar situation?   Let’s see how we close today.

Best to you all.

___________________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVN_0qvuhhw 450 300]

_______________________________
It seems that the Olympian Fowl of Late November have been a bit tardy this year.   Gauging the current mood of the financial blogosphere, however, one would think the Mohawks had rescinded the Thanksgiving truce and were busy rendering bad punk haircuts to the entire Southern District of New York.

Ridiculous.   So you had a bad “Black Friday Shopping Experience?”  You didn’t get that $199 42″ plasma from Best Buy despite leaving 4 grandmothers denture-less thanks to your “flying elbows of  mercantile death?”  That’s a damn shame.   You should bring a hockey stick next time if you want to prove you are a playah.   That’s no reason to go all knee-knocked on the market because of a bad Turkey Week. I urge you not to become Ursine Prejudiced.  It’s the worst kind of poison for the mind.

You see, sometimes the Turkey Gods are leisurely in their ambling down from the stratosphere to bless you with the grapes of coin.  This is why it pays to have patience and to step into an oversold cycle in a graduated fashion.   Last week I saw the PM’s starting to show signs of a rally even as the dollar stayed strong, but I knew that rally would not fully materialize until the dollar was finally ready to retreat.  So I played halfway, and stayed out of the high octane stuff (save for a starter in AGQ) to start.

By my calculations, that dollar retreat should have started Wednesday or even Friday of last week, and therefore, by those lights, the dollar is living on borrowed time.   I think we will see a top perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning as the dollar tries to rally to the September highs.   From a stochastic and RSI standpoint, that rally looks ready to stall.  Note the overbought conditions in the following daily index chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we can take advantage of this pullback and I plan to put on some leveraged plays — including NUGT and AGQ — if the dollar begins to break down significantly this week.   I’m not sure I will have those plays on for very long, but I think we can take some short term advantage of the return to the mean this oversold cycle presents.   As usual I would look to the liquid plays — GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW and RGLD.   If you insist on playing the micros and the juniors, please play small… and swiftly.

Best to you all, in your tryptophan heavens.

_____________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEDw9xgSmSc 450 300]

_________________________

I’ve found a bipartisan effort I invite you all to get behind.  Yes, that was me, invoking the word “bi-partisan.”   Harken quickly and not so lightly, as this will surely be a rare occurence not often repeated.

What I’m talking about is Representative Jeff Flake’s idea to “Staple Green Cards to PhD diplomas” so as to make sure we don’t cede any of that freshly minted U.S.-educated talent back to the Third World and worse (in the case of the Red Chinese).   Even President 0’Bama has gotten behind the idea, despite his telling Steve Jobs that he couldn’t sever the Gordian Knot of immigration reform gumming up the Congress.

And why not, I ask you?  Post-secondary education is one of Americas remaining differentiating advantages, and smart children from the world around come here to take advantage of it.  Why shouldn’t we make it easier for those bright individuals to enhance our quality of life here, not to mention add to the employment ranks by creating new businesses and hiring even more people?  Did you know that half of Silicon Valley start-ups over the last two decades have been started by foreign born individuals?

Howabout this — we wouldn’t even have Steve Jobs were his Dad not here on a student visa.  Serendipitous, no?

Maybe we should take the cue?

______________________________

Well that dollar bounced severely today, and so did my Skiffles, which are my one remaining hedge.  They weren’t enough to make up for the blood on the ground from my newly minted mining additions, but I’m not even yet half invested, so I’ve got a lot of room and a lot of dry powder…

And a lot of patience.

I will be adding to my Skiffles tomorrow, however, if the dollar continues it’s climb.  Gold is holding up strong here, and so is silver, which bodes well for the miners.  If this were a real commodity sell off, silver would’ve been bludgeoned far worse today.   BAA is a quarter shorter than yesterday and I might add to my holdings there in the morning, as I really liked the way it looked like it was being accumulated at the end of the day.

If you want to play with more generic pieces, keep GDX (large cap gold), GDXJ (junior gold) and SIL (silver miners) in mind to play the ETF field.  For the more adventurous, like m’self, I also like NUGT on a pullback here as well as AGQ.  RGLD, last of all, is showing nice relative strength.

See you tomorrow, I hope.

__________________

Comments »

______________________________________

I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.

____________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1iUKCFHWzg&NR=1 450 300]

__________________________

I finally broke down and watched my first Republican Presidential Primary Debate tonight.  It was still a struggle to pay attention, despite my “political animal” tendencies.  There were just too many flotsams and jetsams out there that needed to be weeded out to get the ball rolling a little quicker.  I assure you, I would take a paring knife to that list if I were the grand GOP Puzzlemaker, instead of just some mouthy guy spouting my opinions on a lightly regarded stock blog.

The two biggest losers tonight had to be former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum.  Here’s the thing — could you even tell the two apart?  Yeah, I know Rick is the Catholic firebrand and Pawlenty is the cool laconic Lutheran (or whatever they are in Minnesota), but physically they are very comparable, and charisma-wise, well…. I find myself wondering how Pawlenty ever got elected in Minnesota in the first place.

Did his dad own a department store chain, too??

With those two nobodies yanked, the next to go has to be Newt Gingrich.  Smart, no question, but way too unlikeable.  His negatives have to be up there with Hillary Clinton, and its all reflective of the smug know-it-all defensiveness that characterized his every delivery tonight.   No, he’s gone, and please Lord, soon.

That leaves us with the ever entertaining pair of Ron Paul and Herman Cain, who, in a perfect world, would be named Benevolant Dictators of America, because you’re pretty damn sure neither of them would abuse the power.  That said, neither are really ready for prime time, even as both of them gave some of the best answers of the night.  I will never agree with Paul on a foreign policy basis, but I like his libertarian views on civil rights, etc.   Herman Cain is just a whip smart bidnessman and you know he’s honest to a tee — perhaps too honest to be in politics, unfortunately.

That Huntsman creep I don’t even countenance.  The guy worked for Obama for a couple of years and we’re supposed to hire him as Big O’s replacement?  I’m figuring that dude must have shitte tonnes o’ green to burn, because I haven’t seen that much of a no-chance candidacy since the terminally morose Ralph Nadar ran for the Greens.  Huntsman, you’re fired too.

That leaves us with the lovely Michele Bachman and der Mittster.  Michele is lovely to look at, and I really respect her convictions, but there’s something about her that seems a little too frozen.  Maybe it’s here eyelids?  I dunno, but it’s odd how she speaks at the tv’s like she’s reading from an invisible teleprompter or something.    I have to sadly conclude that if she weirds out a rock-ribbed conservative like me who supports much of her platform, she’s got less chance than even Sarah Palin in the general.

That leaves Mitt, whom, as you know, I’ve been cool on since he announced.   I want to like Mitt, because I have some friends who would lay down their life for the guy, and these are not idealistic schoolgirls, but experienced deal guys I’m talking about.  However, as you know, I just have a hard time getting around the whole Romneycare thing.  Well, after tonight’s performance, I began to thaw a little bit on old Willard Mitt.

I thought he gave some really nice answers on many of the business and fiscal questions, and I really got the sense that his calm confidence (contrasted against Santorum’s near-mania at times, for example) really are a nice fit for the current state of malaise in which we find ourselves enmired.

So, for now, I’m feeling like I could pull the trigger for Mitt.  But let’s see what Saturday brings, as I also have a soft spot in my heart for Texans and their way of doing things.  Perry could be the one, as well.

_____________________________

As The PPT members already know, I dumped a bunch of silver and gold today, but not by any means a portion more than 25% of my horde.  The ones I saw as either ripe or annoying (IAG), I cut down first.   I ended up selling anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3rds of my stashes in AG, ANV, IAG, EXK and NGD.  I also got rid of all of the rest of my DGP and NUGT positions, just to take the leverage off.  I sold no SLW or RGLD, but I may get rid of some of that tomorrow.

In the meantime, gold has taken a little air out, and silver along with her, but nothing extraordinary has occurred yet.  I will be monitoring the situation through tomorrow afternoon and let you know what I’m thinking, if anything.

Best to you all.

_________________________________________________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVAD8Zl5ngg 450 300]

________________________
Looking over my charts this evening (no shoulder devils or broken elevators), it seems that while the price of gold is doing the Heschel Walker down the field, the metal’s miners are lagging behind like a fat man with smoker’s hack.  This gives me some pause and has me with my finger on the trigger.   Despite minor wins today in AUQ, AUY and ANV, most miners that didn’t start with “A” were having trouble addressing the field.   Moreover, silver struggled at the $40 line and gave it up by the end of the day.  As a result, despite gold being up nicely, I was still down in my miner-saturated portfolio almost 2% overall today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen this play before (gold up, silver and PM miners lagging) and I don’t intend to stick around to see what comes of it again.  I will likely sell some portions of my miners tomorrow morning and then hedge the rest with sold calls.  I  will also launch the remainder of my  NUGT and DGP (what remains of them) even as I’ll  likely hold on to my GLD and SLV positions for the duration,

I will then likely  spin some of the newly raised cash into a few rebound stock positions to take advantage of a bounce I feel certain shall finally come tomorrow as we test the depths of 1090 and perhaps lower.  I am again looking at QLD, TNA, EEM and possibly, quite possibly EDC again (very small ball!).

Be well and be wary, my friends.

_________________________

Comments »