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Emergency Derby Picks

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTg5h_zMYaw 450 300]

Can Early Favorite Orb pull a “Big Brown” and win from the far outside post position?

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My apologies for not ringing in this week, but Derby Week is like Mardi Gras down here and I’ve a lot of responsibilities. Many of them include chaperoning Large Net Worths around, paying close attention to their words of wisdom, and occasionally matching them bourbon for bourbon, deep into the evening.

Gold an silver seem to be hanging in reasonably well, here, and $1,450 seems to be holding well. That’s a level to keep your eye on. In the meantime, I like AUY, NEM, AEM, and of course SLW and RGLD. All on sale now.

As for the Derby itself, I have to admit a certain loyalty to Rick Pitino’s magic horse, Goldencents, which, donning Kevin Ware’s #5 at Santa Anita, scorched the pack for the highest Beyer speed rating of any of the Derby preliminaries (105).  Nobody else came even close to that in the Derby prelims, which lends the cold credibility.

I also like Normandy Invasion, and not just for the cool, retro-WWII name.  I liked the way Normandy was making good time to almost overtake Verrazano in the Wood Memorial at New York’s Aqueduct Racetrack last month.  That race was a mile and an eighth.  I think with the extra 1/8 of a mile left in the Derby, Normandy should be sitting pretty.

Last I like the big winning colt, Orb… caution, this horse will likely be the favorite once all the Louisville Cardinal fans (Pitino’s GoldenCents) and multi-Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel fans (he will ride mud horse favorite Revolutionary) get too drunk to remember to bet by the 11th race.  Orb has done nothing but win, and is coming off a sparkling win in the Florida Derby.  The problem with this horse is it’s coming off the 19th hole, which has been a traditionally tough place to win from.  Big Brown, however, won from #20 position in 2008 (see above) so anything is possible if you have a super horse.  The question remains… is Orb enough of a Super Horse to win it?

Tune in tomorrow evening at around 6 pm on NBC!  Look for me hanging off one of the balconies, hopefully not by one of my more delicate extremities.

Best to you all, and happy happy Derby!

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My Favourite (sic) Bridge

Verrazano

Horse
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I  know quite a few of you might expect a post today about tonight’s National Championship Final down in Atlanta, where my beloved Redbirds will be playing Cain’s Be-sooted (sic)  Maize and Blue Marvel Comix Characters (no bologna).

However, I will humbly defer, due to an acute allergy to all bad ju-ju and other such superstitious toxins.  I learned my lesson after taking Wichita State a little too casually and as a result experiencing four or five apoplectic cardiac arrhythmias during Saturday evening’s semifinal game.

Let’s take this time then to talk Kentucky Derby and one of my favourites (sic) in both the equine and suspension categories — Verrazano — the Winner of this weekend’s Wood Memorial Derby Prep at Acqueduct.     I am usually very partial to the winner of the Wood Memorial, as it’s quite often racing against the best 3-year old competition prior to the Derby, and what’s more important, racing in very similar conditions to that of the Derby itself. 

This is extremely important, and often overlooked by fans of the Florida, Louisiana,  Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies (the other noted Triple Crown prep races).   While there’s much difference in attitude between my native home and my adopted one, there’s actually very little difference in overall climates.  We might get slightly milder winters and less hurricanes down here in the Bluegrass, but for the most part our weather patterns, up to an including ambient temperatures are very similar. 

Moreover, the Wood Memorial at Acqueduct , is conducted in a similarly aged (and aging) facility, and on a dirt track — no small matter in this age of synthetic (read “rubber”) surfaces.   So I like the winner of this race way better than I do the palm-swaying pooftahs down in California or Florida.   Mind you, The Illinois Derby (which is no longer considered a Derby prep), in Cicero, IL, is another similarly-conditioned race, but it never seems to draw the same top flight competition that the Wood, Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana and Santa Anita races do.   

(Rumor has it the Illinois was dropped from the Derby trials because Gap and Yap has been caught waving a sparking taser at the horses there one too many times, and they lost their insurance coverage.)

Pulling back to Verrazano, he’s a plucky “working” horse with a lot of muscle to him, and he reminds me of former Kentucky Derby winner Fusiachi Pegasus in that regard.   He ran something of a slow Wood Memorial (finish time for the 1 and 1/8 miler was 1:50:37) , but that could mean nothing, given he was only following the pace horse (ChrisandtheCapper) for the first three quarters of his run, and biding his time to make his move.  What’s important is that he held of his competition in a very game Vyjack (who fell to third after going neck and neck), and a surging Normandy Invasion, who took second at the wire. 

The only smoke on his horizon may be that Verrazano’s jockey, John Velasquez, who also rode Florida Derby winner Orb (see below), got hurt late yesterday in a fall at Acqueduct.  A change in jockey can be a big problem for a young horse

I also like Orb, the Florida Derby winner and of course Goldencents (whatta name!), the Rick Pitino-owned colt that just took the Santa Anita Derby prep from Bob Baffert-trained favorite Flashback.   I will have more to say about those ponies in the coming weeks, but for now, let’s hope Verrazano is not a Bridge Too Far. 

Oh, and cover those silver shorts too, while you are at it.

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UPDATE: Breaking… Flashback has been pulled from the Derby Trail due to a bonechip injury resulting from last Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.  Out for at least two months.  

Pitino wins again!

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On the Most Important Matter of the Kentucky Derby

Go, Baby Go!

  Let me tell you that one of the greatest things about moving South from Noo Yawk, aside from the babes, the weather, the polite people, good economy, affordable housing, well-bred children and the outstandingly well cultivated taste for fine bourbon, is getting the chance to attend these  quaint traditional  Southern “hoo-has” where nice, attractive people get dressed up, drink cool bourbons, smoke cigars and party the old-fashioned way– which, ironically,  would include the pounding of Old Fashioneds.   Let me tell you, these Southern fuckers live to party, and they don’t even mind if some Yankees come and join them, as long as you don’t puke on the sofa, goose the wife or kick the spaniel.

The Grand Daddy of aforesaid genteel Southern get-togethers is the “Run for the Roses” — Louisville’s Kentucky Derby — 135 years old this year, and going stronger than ever– recession be damned.   For those of you ill-cultured enough to know nothing of “the Sport of Kings” — thoroughbred horse racing–  this is the first race of the famed “Triple Crown” which also includes Baltimore’s Preakness  and New York’s Belmont Stakes.    Neither of the those two races, however, match the pageantry that is “the Derby,” where the greatest three-year old thoroughbreds colts (mostly) from all over the planet are flown in to test their mettle on the hallowed twin spires-shaded dirt of Churchill Downs.  

It’s a day of at least twelve races, with the great Derby– a full mile and a quarter in length– arriving at the tenth (or eleventh, this year), by which time the crowd is well oiled with juleps and ready for history.  Everyone bets this race from the cheapest piker Anabaptist deacon to the highest rolling international gangsta that just dropped wheels in his G-5 from Paris that morning.   You have a full hour from the previous race to make sure you’ve bet every combo, and that the Downs (NASD: CHDN) has sucked every penny of hope from your rag and tip sheets.    And since there’s always anywhere from 16 to 20 horses, you will drive yourself batshit betting more combos, wheels and exotics than Skye Masterson ever dreamt of.   You see, you really… really want to have a winner in this one.

That’s because there is no thrill in the world like hearing the crowd roar as those magnificent beasts round that eighth pole and start pounding for home– with your horse is in the mix.   Go baby, fuggin’ go!

Literally… nothing…. like it.

From the cheap standing room only seats in the gnarly “infield” to the outrageously priced balcony views of Millionaire’s Row, the crowd– sometimes as much as 150,000 strong–  will roar as one when the most thrilling two minutes of sports culminates with that galvanizing pronouncement from the Spires’ speakers:  “AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!” 

Bucket shoppers and bucket listers alike — take heed:  Like your kids’ weddings and the “find yourself” trip to Tibet,  The Derby is something you must attend before you embark on that final dirt nap.  

Make room for it, get good seats, good hotel and restaurant reservations, and do the whole shebang (The Oaks (Friday) & Derby if possible).  You will never regret it, I promise. 

Now, on to “the picks:”

Following are your current Kentucky Derby morning line odds:

Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1
2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff John Velazquez Eoin Harty 30-1
4 Advice Rene Douglas Todd Pletcher 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez J. Larry Jones 5-1
7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Jr. 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Chris DeCarlo Todd Pletcher 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 20-1
12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 4-1
17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Shaun Bridgmohan Nick Zito 50-1
19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

You can see who your clear favorites are, but let me tell you that although I Want Revenge is already nominated as the Official iBankcoin.com Derby Pick— just for his name alone — I will not be betting him (save for in exotics), due to the fact that his trainer and owners are hated — mostly for shadiness– by the other trainers and jocks.  In a big race like this, unless the horse is head and shoulders a better athlete than the rest of the field,–like Big Brown was last year– that is bad news.    Look for the more experienced jocks to angle and attempt to block out the favorite’s 19-year old Derby rookie jockey, eventually kicking him down the proverbial “noobie elevator shaft.”  That said, I Want Revenge could not have asked for a better slot than the 13 hole to start this monster.   

 Pioneer of the Nile (4-1)  is also getting great play, for having won the Santa Anita Derby, the California Derby prep race, and being trained by newly annointed Hall of Fame trainer (just last week) Bob Baffert (above), a literal racing superstar.     My problem here is very short odds due to “the Baffertness,” and the fact this horse has never won on dirt, as the SA Derby is run on the new synthetic surface called polytrack.    True track hounds are known for calling it “pussy-track.”  You get the picture.

Same comment for sentimental favorite and Kentucky Blue Grass Stakes winner General Quarters (20-1), who is a from a one horse stable trained by an retired Kentucky high school principal(!)   Sentimental favorites get crappy odds though, so he may not be worth it at post time (you should see that 20-1 shrink).

Out of the favorite pool, I like Dunkirk (4-1) and Desert Party (15-1) — both great bloodlines and the latter being fed a diet of diamonds and Saudi crude by his owner, the Emir Of Dubai.   As the Emir is never a favorite here in Derby town, you might get some nice odds for Desert Party and his partner from Godolphin Racing (the Emir’s barn) Regal Ransom(also purchased with the treasure from Aladin’s Cave, including the lamp).   I like Dunkirk because Todd Pletcher— another superstar trainer like Baffert — is due, and Edgar Prado is a top five jockey.  I also like short odds candidate and Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire, who is trained by Larry Jones, whose Eight Bellesfilly gave Big Brown such a tough race last year before pulling up and breaking both forelegs in the appalling aftermath.   If  anyone is due, it’s Jones after that tragedy.   However Friesan Fire has been very lighty raced, which is usually not a good sign for a Derby candidate

But hey, iBankCoin is about banking coin, so I’m going to throw some lesser followed long odds dark horses at you.   I have won at the Derby a number of times picking non-favorites with great Beyer speed numbers, and one to watch in that category this year is West Side Bernie (30-1), who came in second in the Wood Memorial at Acqueduct  to I Want Revenge.   The Wood is one of my favorite Derby prep races, and I always look to that race over others to show me my Derby pick.   West Side Bernie was moving nicely in the stretch of that  mile and 1/8 long race, and I like his chances for the longer Derby, even though I Want Revenge was magnificent in that race.  The one downside I see to Bernie is his position in the “one slot,” which will be very tough in this big field unless he gets a great break from the gate.    I also like Papa Clem (20-1) and Musket Man (20-1)  as “interesting exotic” plays to throw in with your favorites.   

  The great thing is there are no dogs in this race…  these are the true “kings” of the sport.  Savor the experience, coming to your teevee screen tomorrow evening, about 6:15 Eastern.     I will leave you with last year’s classic, where aptly named Big Brown won from the 20-hole  (the farthest post position out) — an unprecedented event in the 134 year history of the Derby.   Just another thriller… there’s one every year.  Good luck!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBeoZUsnXdc 450 300] 

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Update: Congrats to 50-1 moonshot-no-one -had “Mine that Bird.”  Should have looked at wife’s “take the ugliest name” strategy.  Seriously, I don’t know why I didn’t bet jockey Calvin Borel, a true pro in the horse game, who just won the million dollar The Oaks feature race the day before.

Update:  Why it’s worth going even if you don’t win, and some bogus 50-1 long-shot takes it (pic #28):

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Thanks to Woodshedder for stopping by to raise a julep cup to us all: 

shedderderby

Til next year, Happy Derby!

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