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Of my favourite (sic) PM positions there are quite a few that are “almost there,” for an optimal buy, according to my weekly (ie, “long term”) reviews.

And then there are two that I like for tomorrow. They are PAAS and ANV. I will look to add tomorrow morning. There are a couple that may need one more day (and it may not even be a full day) like SLW and EGO. If you can get RGLD below $43, you are one blessed by Fortune.

As for “rippers” that will be taking advantage of any continuing up move in the regular markets, CREE and VECO, the LED twins, are taking off again. I expect POWR will be not very far behind them.

Attendez!

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It’s called work.  I’m back home, and I’ve got tonnes of it.  I shall be out of the office again for three days this week and have all manner of personal and personnel issues to work through.   What’s worse, my right hand man is taking this week off (and deservedly so, as I’ve been working him like a Sherpa in tourist season).

I did have a chance to look through the charts tonight, however,  and I continue to believe two things.   One, this rally will continue, most likely after a slight pause that will either accompany or ensue from a dollar strengthening.   It won’t be much, but enough to continue working out it’s current oversold condition.  

This week would not be the week to add to the TNA (D’Rex Triple Russell), in other words.   It may be a decent week to continue looking at the PM recovery that firmed last week, however.   This is especially true if we’re given a bit of respite with the dollar strengthening.

As the daily AMEX Gold Bug ($HUI) chart show, that rebound off the oversold levels has occurred.  If the cycle continues as it has, we should see at least $490 again, and perhaps even new highs, depending on what the dollar decides.   Here’s the latest in a series:

I would continue to add to strong names that look like they’ve bottomed for this cycle, especially IAG, ANV and EGO in the golds, and SLW and PAAS in the silvers.   RGLD — the royalty banker — is also extremely attractive at these levels.

Feeling adventurous?  Gobble some EXK.   Or gobble some more, in that case.   I can’t tell you how much that stock reminds me of SLW, and even it’s ultimate parent WHT (now known as GG) in the bad old days of the early 2000’s.  I believe it will eventually provide similar rewards.

Someday, you will thank me for nagging you on all this.

Best to you all.

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If the Market’s not Crashin… Hey! It must be the Mon-ay!
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I haven’t a whole lot for you tonight.   Most of the PM’s held up pretty well today as the dollar shilly shallayed about, dancing the mazurka to a deflationary beat.  I”m especially fond of EGO, IAG and SLW’s  “holding up” action today despite the cannonades from the Depression Era Debutants.  I happen to think ANV is offering a nice dip purchase opportunity here as well.

Save the drama for one’s mama, fellahs… the dollar will tell the tune, and it already is.   Here’s the daily for the “close-up” look at where we are in the cycle:

As you can see, there are some conflicting stochastics here, but if I have to choose a marker, I’ll usually go with Woody’s favourite (sic) — the 5-day RSI.   There’s no clear path here, however, and the situation will resolve itself when we are out of that 20 to 50 day EMA channel referenced above.

The monthly chart on the dollar may offer a bit more direction.   This last looks like an exhaustion candle to me, but then I’m biased.  

Occam’s Razor  tells us, however, that Ben and the CBE boys (not to mentiont the Ministry Of Finance in Nippon) will hit the QE button again in order to save the banks and avert a deflationary vortex.   Why will they save the banks?  Because there will be no second TARP… not in this election cycle.   What other tools have they at their disposal?

Moreover, the Fourth of July is a historically solid up week.  Will this year be different?

You make the call.   I’m heading off on vacation, blythe and fancy free.   Mostly.

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 Here’s the origin of today’s title:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtSDWq6HsJE 450 300]

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRWU2DysF30 450 300]

Showing this to the kids next time they don’t want to practice piano….

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I spoke to some of you on Fly’s blog the other day about how I’d had a conversation with a couple of traders whom I respect greatly, and whose collective net worths range into the billions.  They were/are considering moving their capital to some less confiscatory climes if the current regimes remain in power past November of 2010.   They said this bluntly and with little rancor.   The conversation, in fact, was for the most part calm and matter-of-fact.  A sense of resignation permeated the meeting.

“It is what it is” seemed the pre-dominant theme.

Many times I’ve said on this site that “capital is mobile.”   That phrase should be embossed in gold bas relief a top both Congressional Speaker’s podiums in both the House and Senate.   It’s a phrase all governments should take to heart, but ours most specifically because our success today as a global Colossus (dare I say “Atlas?” lol!) is due to the flight of both specie and intellectual capital to our shores.

What I mean is that governments unfriendly to capital, be they in Cuba, the Soviet Union, France, and for a time (ironically) Mainland China and India forced intellectual and physical capital off-shore into the arms of nations more friendly to its use and protection.   The most hallowed place, up until recently, was in our own  U.S.capital markets system.

Forget about “your tired and poor” — America became great on the backs of your innovative and rich, Asia and Europe.   Sorry, that’s just the way it’s been.   Thank our Constitution and integral respect for property rights for those wins.

The question each of us must ask, however, is can that win streak continue?  If the hard fought aspects of U.S. exceptionalism (not my term, but there it is) are gradually worn away, and we end up looking like just another 50% government oriented European state, will entrepreneurs, innovators and capital investors continue to be interested in our ability to create wealth?  Will that ability even remain a core competency in the 21st century?

Hard questions.   In the mean time, U.S. Congressmen dumber than even their mulish appearance would convey, are calling for the “freeing” of the Chinese currency.   This would be a disastrous turn of events, not just for us but for the Chinese themselves, who depend upon the artificial cheapness of their goods to feed the American consumer maw and thereby continue their growth in productivity and efficiency.   Break that equilibrium and the Chinese will suffer — temporarily… as they move from a Third to a First World country and begin becoming emboldened consumers in their own right.   Such an evolution for China — like post-war Japan’s — is all but inevitable.

As a result, the U.S. will be shorn not only of its cheap goods, but of its single most important financier — the Chinese Central Bank, who has been sterilizing our crap paper for years.   Soon that subsidization will end, and we will have to face the reality of our over-spending.   That day of reckoning will come all the sooner if we force the Chinese hand, as so many critically stupid Congressmen are now attempting to do.

The play this week (surprise, surprise) is the precious.   I bought another 2k of AGQ on Friday, and tried to add 2k more SLW, but I was busy that day and only got to call in the trade to my broker.   Unfortunately, I noted this evening there is no additional SLW in my account, so I will have to administer 40 lashes tomorrow morning to aforesaid sloth-like attendant.    My kingdom for competence!

Sigh.  

All the silvers and golds look good right now, but none more than my favourite (sic) gold ANV, which seems to be going to the stratos.    I continue to like EGO and also RGLD, especially after the recent Goldman capital raise.

Best to you all, and watch out for those rem-nem-bee’s.   They sting when aggravated.

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Today was a warm and fulfilling Father’s Day.   I took the four offspring and their madre and her parents off to our traditional Father’s Day Lunch where we had a toothsome sup at our favorite restaurant complete w. sangrias out on the lanai. 

Then we followed that worthy repast with a late afternoon matinee (blessedly air conditioned, as it’s been over 90 for a week now).   We saw the highly acclaimed Toy Story 3 in “3-d” (sufficiently subtle that it did not bother my usually sensitive inner ear) and I can truthfully say it was the perfect Father’s Day movie, and just a great movie all around.   I might even pick up some DIS on Monday, so impressed was I by those Pixar geniuses all over again.

But this was a busy week, Father’s Day culminations aside, and none were more busy than the deep-mining dwarves of my portfolio that showered me with coyne (sic) even as I wheeled and dealed like a Soprano consigliari in Sinatra’s New York.

For those of you who think this recent market rip as a sign of light at the end of the tunnel, please disabuse yourself immediately.  You might as well ascribe the recent positivity to overzealous vuvuzallah (sp?) blowing as to positive economic news.

Make no mistake, this market is ripping on a combination of black smoke-sentiment rebound and fast money central bank printing.    As a result, stocks as a whole have risen, and my gold and silver plays (not to mention select platinum and palladium names) are looking Atlas holding up the world, but getting ready to shrug.

Last week I gave you RBY and BAA, which were up this past week 19.3% and 21.4% respectively. 

Yes, in one week.  And there will be moooore, on each, bless us both.

Even that damned elusive Pimpernel could not argue with those kind of results, but you must get them while they are hot, like slices of pizza thrown from the tenth story of important buildings.  

I don’t want to hear any complaints, either, as I illustrate my favourites (sic) which I have been recommending now for more than a full year of vociferous blogging.  

Remember my very favourite stock, SLW?  Well, it was only up a mere 8.5% last week.   But that only means you haven’t missed the entirety of the party.   In fact, I think it’s about to get started on the weekly here:

Then there’s my number two beauty, ANV.  It was also up a mere 12.4% last week, but I want to show you the daily on this one to illustrate the dramatic manner in which it made that increase last week.  Note how it, too, is approaching new highs?  Coincidence?

Maybe a little bit overbought on the daily, but that’s one you want to own for the long, hard times.  Weekly is a dream.

Then there’s my lovely EGO, up a mere 6.3% this week, but showing some appetizing possibilities as it too ends the week within a hair’s breadth of new all time highs.  Uncanny, no?  Check this daily out:

Some volume, wot?

Then there’s the grand-pap of them all, RGLD, which looks like it too wants to find new ground above $55 per share.  We may sell off a little bit of the last week’s 4.1% advance, but then we may just consolidate some of this overbought-ness and move on to new highs.    Let’s say I’m not selling any calls just yet:

That’s enough for now.   This should be an exciting week.  Watch the dollar index here.   If it breaks $85.00 here, as I’ve stated before, we could have some serious play in the fields of gold.   Keep an eye on CDE (up over 14%) and PAAS (up over 9.5% last week) for the silver stakes as well.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqlJl1LfDP4 450 300]

Love this version….

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Going up to the territory of Monsieur Le Docteur du Fly for a couple of days for business that could very well shake the foundations of Finance itself..

Or barring that, I’ll at least grab a decent steak and catch up w. some friends.    Whatever the case, I will be “around”  these premises only sporadically as I cannot guarantee that my connections will be up to speed or that I won’t have all of my time accounted for whilst up there.

I’ll leave you with your rudders tied for the moment, as I think we may get a little bit more grinding into the Friday expiration, with the possibility of a last pop into that date after more muddling tomorrow.   The dollar bounced back very slightly today an ended in the lower part of it’s track for the candle pattern.   The golds, perhaps sensing continuing weakness in $USD are continuing to crank, almost in step-fashion across the board.

Today RBY finally took off as predicted last weekend, up over 5.5% today:

  

RBY looks like it may be finally launching off that consolidation of the handle.  I expect more this week.

 BAA — which took off right away on Monday as you recall — continues to rise, and has now completely recouped it’s 19% discount from the secondary offering level I’d mentioned over the weekend…. Recouped it… AND MORE.

As you can see on that weekly chart’s stochastics… BAA has a ways to go as well, and I believe it will.

I continue to see strength in my favourite stocks, which fills me with untold joy, as I’ve pallet loads of them.  SLW looked great today, as did ANV and especially IAG.   I continue to like EGO here as well, not to mention RGLD, EXK and PAAS.   Eat, and enjoy.

Best to you all, hope to speak to you soon.

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