I interrupt this heavily precious metal-oriented blog in order to pay homage to The #1 Jacksonian Holding since inception (May 1st, our official/unofficial start date).   Mr. Anderson — [[ANDE]] broke the 70% mark today, in a little over a month’s trading.  

That’s kind a special, so I figure I’d give old “Keanu” a shout out.   Do you begrudge?  Better question — do you own it?

Mind you, I think the PM’s will eventually leave Mr. Anderson in the dust, counting spoons that aren’t really even there.   And believe me, the PM”s are not doing too shabbily as it is, with [[SLW]] up 41.84%,  [[TC]] up 41.49% and  [[PAAS]]  up 39.88%.   All of the golds are in the 30’s as well, with my three laggards being (in order) [[NRP]] +0.66%.,  [[TSO]] + 0.31% and negative nelly-monster  [[MON]] at (-2.76%).   The overall port, thanks to today’s recovery, is just under 26% for the entire period.  

What’s that you say?  Molybdenum’s not a precious metal?  Well it’s PRECIOUS TO ME!

For today I added a little [[EGO]] at $9.57 — my one holding that did not close in the black today (by two cents).   Ironic, no?   Still I wanted to fill that position and I think it’s coiling for a move here.   Everyone else recovered to some extent, but I would not bet my bottom dollar that we are out of the turbulence yet.   No, I shant sound the “all clear” until we’re  above the $400 mark on the $HUI, as mentioned in last night’s post.   We got halfway back, closing a bit above $387  this afternoon.  

As I said, use this time to accumulate positions in the Jacksonians, and in some [[GG]], [[AUY]], [[ANV]], and [[EXK]] — among the other PM’s of your choice.  Soon these prices will be but a dream to you, I fear. 

If you want some non-Jacksonians, I’ve been playing some biotech lotto with [[SVA]], [[HEB]], [[SFE]] and [[CTIC]].   I’m not even going to disclaim those, as if you dare playing with them you are too “certifiable” to hire a creditable lawyer in the first place.  Just. Don’t.

Two quick charts showing Mr. Anderson’s  progress.  The first shown when I laid out the first blog post on the idea, the second captured today:

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And today’s portfolio performance.  Be well all.

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Name	4-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.22	6.45%		Up over 70% since 5/1
EGO	9.52	-0.21%		Got  more today @ $9.57 – can ya tell?
GDX	43.51	3.20%		$HUI back above $385 again ($387)
GLD	96.23	1.93%		POG up 2.2% today.  ($983.50)
IAG	10.55	1.54%		Gaps filled, but anemic.
MON	82.90	1.72%		Back to Tuesday’s close
NRP	24.24	3.86%		Healthy recovery for this sluggard
PAAS	23.29	4.30%		Up 5.6% since yesterday’s purchase ($22.05)
RGLD	46.19	1.34%		Low volume retrace
SLV	15.63	3.24%		POS back close to $16 again.
SLW	10.95	3.69%		Closed right on the 50% fib retrace
SSRI	23.97	4.04%		Over the cup again-exactly
TBT	56.00	3.72%		Back over 61.8% fib – $60 next target
TC	10.06	7.71%		Blew right back up again.
TSO	16.06	5.87%		Back in the long term green by 31 basis pts.
AVG		3.49%

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There’s that bloody pullback we were talking about last weekend!  Um — No need to overdo it, there, brother!   We don’t want to scare any new Jacksonians away now, do we?   

Well I can’t say this wasn’t expected, although the bludgeoning of [[TSO]] is a mite much in my opinion, and may warrant some additional consideration, should it continue much past the $14.80 level, where I would consider it more than a bit damaged.  Obviously VLO and WNR are the culprits here, both pointing to an overcapacity in the business and possible need to raise capital (on WNR‘s part) allegedly.  As you know I was short the June 17.50’s, but even that money doesn’t make up for today’s bludgeoning.  I may just reshort the 15’s, here and exit if that is my fate.   TSO is something of an oddball (like MON and ANDE) in that it’s not directly commodity related, but rather peripherally.  

In short, I’ll let you know what I decide, but for now, TSO is on the “back alley execution” list.   Even though I bot most of my TSO below $10, I recognize that it’s only “Jacksonian” from the official start date of May 1st, so I will account for the loss (bot @ $16.01) from that date if I take it.

The good news is I think we may have a new Jacksonian entrant.   I began a “starter” position in [[PTM]] today,  at $15.14.   As I type, it’s about a dime below that, so I may add before the day is out.  If do add PMT to the JCHP, then I will likely kick out TSO, at a loss.

In other Jacksonian news,  [[TC]] is getting its socks rocked, in one of it’s now familiar one day pull backs.   Perhaps I’ll remember to sell the calls when I should next time.    As it is, it’s filled that $9.59 gap from last Friday, and I shall probably add a small amount more today.

[[EGO]] has tested the rim of that long term cup that was in formation from July of last year.  I expect it should hold up here, and I will likely add a small amount from recent biotech winnings to my pile here as well.

[[SLW]] I would wait on, now, to see if it can’t fill that gap down around $10-.   Gap fills have been excellent buy opportunities as of late.   [[SSRI]] ($23.38) and [[PAAS]]  ($22+ ) are both at good accumulating points, here.   Also if you feel adventerous, non-JCHP double Silver ETF [[AGQ]] has pulled back nicely here, too, but you may want to wait to see if it fills that gap at $52.30.

All the JCHP golds are accumulatable at these levels, right now, and I’d grab RGLD first, as always, and GDX is always a good “backbone” hold.

Caveat:  As always, I offer my opinions only, and not the usual advice for which you consult your local gypsy palm reader.   If you decide to follow me into the Jacksonian fold, it is because you are a person of independent means who spits in the face of market carnage.   Just remember that here, even in this sainted borough of the iBC Website, you can most assuredly get shot.   Trade accordingly.

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Update: I bot 2k more EGO at $9.38.

Update: I bot 1k more PAAS at $22.05

Update: I bot 4k more NG at $4.85

Update: I sold 4k TSO (25%) at $15.02

Non Jacksonian Update: I bot 10k CTIC  (25%) at $15.02

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(Thanks to ‘Shed for the family photo)

As expected,  the miners have begun to consolidate a bit of last week’s (and last month’s) run up.    Nothing major mind you,  but the $HUI tells the tale here.  Remember this weekly chart from the 22nd of May?

A little more than a week later, the $HUI is behaving as indicated.   Remember that red line — the “likely target for a short rest?”    Here’s today’s same chart: 

This wholly expected retrace may bring us as far back as the top of our “consolidation box” ($375-ish).  But if the dollar and the 10-year continue to exhibit problems, I shouldn’t expect this rest to last much longer than that.    I will be using this time to aggregate some names like [[GG]] and [[AUY]] that I’ve been looking to add.   Those of you who have been waiting for a Jacksonian entry may want to consider this week’s opportunity as well.    

One other thing, I’ve been thinking about water as an appreciating commodity recently, and many of the water-related stocks have begun setting up nicely.  I may take a shot at grabbing some of the desalinator [[CWCO]] tomorrow if the stars are properly aligned.   

Note the new “comments” section on the JCHP performance chart.    Innovative, no?  

Best to you all.

Name		1-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE		$       26.00	3.59%		Moving with the Ags
EGO		9.69	-2.32%		Accumulation opp. Here
GDX		43.41	-1.70%		$HUI pullback
GLD		95.73	-0.49%		Resting for the leap to one grand?
IAG		11.02	-2.22%		Friday’s gap @ $10.92
MON		81.48	-0.82%		Yet to fill gap @ $85.06, Barron’s mention ↑
NRP		24.24	2.45%		Low volume up day, KOL up big
PAAS		23.39	-0.13%		Still very much in uptrend channel
RGLD		46.14	-0.92%		Half volume day, pullback
SLV		15.35	-0.78%		Friday’s gap @ $15.06
SLW		10.49	-0.29%		Friday’s gap @ $9.99, will it get there?
SSRI		24.30	1.72%		“Indefatiguable”, Friday gap @ $23.26
TBT		55.52	5.47%		Gapped up, strong volume day
TC		9.99	4.06%		Gapped up today, didn’t fill.
TSO		17.51	3.36%		Hugging the top of the triangle, must break $17.80
		AVG	0.73%

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Ho hum, another glorious day in the world of General Jackson, loather of all that is bankish.  The precious metal picks continue to rip higher with very little rest in between growth spurts.   Soon I shall have to confine them to their rooms.

And yes, our MONstrous friend continues to vex, but I’m happy about my Alex Karras  (MONGO call) purchases today, and shall contrive to buy more upon additional weakness.   Five down days in a row for MON is quite unusual, and as you can see from yesterday’s chart, such stretching of the rubber band often leads to a quick snap back, where I am prepared to harvest my MONGO wins.   We shall see.

TBT also finally retreated, to the great relief of my increasingly expensive sold calls.   This retreat may be a good thing, all things considered, as it takes some pressure off  the “total collapse” scenario which could take other pieces of our worthy Jacksonian Portfolio with it, in thoughtless abandon.

But we’re here tonight to attend to some unfinished business — specifically the long delayed admission of [[EGO]] into the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio.   It narrowly beat out it’s more elder candidates [[GG]] and [[AUY]] who remain readying in the Triple A leagues, batting for huge average whilst simultaneously stomping on Treasury officials of the twisted moustaches (sic) variety.

I’ve owned EGO for a while (as I have GG and AUY), and it’s been a PPT favorite for quite some time.  However, I wanted it to show the same “imminent breakout” characteristics that my other JCHP picks had before I added it to that worthy fold.   I believe today that sign came.  

 As much as I hate to roll out a pick on a large gaining day (7.28%!), I would feel remiss to hide this one’s light under a bushel any longer.  If you look at EGO’s daily chart, I think you’ll see why:

And the weekly chart shows an even lengthier breakout from a long term consolidation zone.  

 

Today’s move was significant, and while we will have to monitor it’s continuation (as it may break below the breakout area again), I think we’re going north from here.     So let us raise a toast to our new Jacksonian, which I hope will make EGO-maniacs of us all.     Best to you all.

Caveat: If you insist on following the Jacksonian path into EGO, it’s dollars to doughnuts you’ll be trapped on the N-train to Atlantic Avenue with three unemployed psych majors who will ply you with the failed dreams of a liberal arts major until you fork a sawbuck at them.   And you might lose other moneys as well.

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	28-May	% Change
ANDE	$    24.43	-0.65%
EGO	9.78	7.24%
GDX	43.01	4.34%
GLD	94.24	0.85%
IAG	10.88	4.11%
MON	79.00	-1.10%
NRP	22.98	0.22%
PAAS	23.14	5.71%
RGLD	45.90	4.22%
SLV	14.93	2.40%
SLW	9.95	5.85%
SSRI	23.21	11.75%
TBT	55.77	-2.40%
TC	8.99	3.21%
TSO	17.00	0.53%
Avg %		3.31%

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Forgive the silly allusion, but I needed a snappy entry to counter a depressing day for one of our Jacksonian Stalwarts: [[MON]].  I figured Mr. Smiling Rastaman can offer some surcease to our collective agita.    MON got some bad news today, courtesy of it’s own management.  I’ll boil it down to this piece from the release:

For the quarter ending May 31, the St. Louis-based agricultural products provider (MON 79.88, -5.37, -6.30%) said it now expects to earn $1.15 a share, down sharply from its prior target range of $1.60 to $1.62 a share.   The reduction caught investors off guard.  Analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for earnings of $1.61 a share, on average.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big reduction in earnings, but it turns out it’s all about some extra competition in it’s herbacide business, which is frankly, the ass-end of it’s value proposition, providing less than a third of overall gross margin.  

Seeds and traits are where it’s at, ladies and germs — that’s what garners the high end of MON’s 60+% gross margins and almost 30% net margins.   You think you can make that kinda coin selling weedkiller?

No sir, it’s the intellectual property that make this market leader a Jacksonian Core Holding, and why I will continue to trade around my position rather than part with it.   Here’s the IP driver update from that same press release:

The company’s seed and traits business, however, continues to show strength. The company now forecasts the segment to deliver gross profit toward the upper end of it’s the range of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion it forecast for the year.

“The projected increase of more than 15% year over year reflects the combination of greater value, growth in the company’s branded seed businesses and expanded use of Monsanto’s trait technologies,” the company said in a release.

So granted, I was a little late in not selling some calls when MON banged against it’s 61.8% fib line (daily) last week (although I did mention it to you, readers).   Thanks goodness, I did part with the “booster” calls I had bot in the high seventies around their second quarter earnings announcement.   Here’s the good news, I will be buying “booster calls” again here, soon, and most likely tomorrow.  I will alert you, but here’s what I’m seeing:

You can see where my target is on the daily, which is showing pretty seriously oversold conditions (thought i can always get more oversold, can’t it?) — right at the retest of that old downtrend line.    Now, the weekly is relatively coincidental, with the long term 61.8% fibonacci line looking like nice resistance at a little over $78.35 or so.  

I will be watching these levels tomorrow, and likely buying July $75 calls to take advantage of a bounce to at least $84-$85.

One last update… the precious metals continue to consolidate here, and I think I shall be taking a strong look at adding some junior silver [[EXK]] tomorrow, and perhaps adding [[EGO]] to the Jacksonian Core, as well.    Best to everyone.

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	27-May	% Change
ANDE	$   24.59	-1.44%
GDX	41.22	-1.48%
GLD	93.45	-0.33%
IAG	10.45	-1.04%
MON	79.88	-6.30%
NRP	22.93	0.79%
PAAS	21.89	1.16%
RGLD	44.04	-2.95%
SLV	14.58	1.11%
SLW	9.40	-0.95%
SSRI	20.77	-0.24%
TBT	57.14	3.76%
TC	8.71	-0.23%
TSO	16.91	1.08%
Avg %		-0.51%

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1Qvnixz1TE 450 300]

Not so bright, but a good guy to have around when the Fox is in the hen house!  (No really, that’s a metaphor… really!)

The Amex Gold Bugs Index (AMEX: $HUI) is one of my touchstone index’s for my precious metal portfolio.    The $HUI contains mostly unhedged gold mining companies and a couple of crappy silver miners (CDE and HL) , who don’t really serve as good representatives for the silver mining community (unlike Jacksonians SLW, PAAS, and SSRI). Jacksonians Core gold holdings [[EGO]] and IAG are members, however, along with “possible” new entrants GG and AUY.  The full fifteen components are listed here.

Because of it’s silver component, I find the $HUI even more useful than the ETF GDX as a precious metal miner index.   So let’s have a look at the daily and weekly charts to see where we are:

As you can see from the chart, the current daily is showing signs of a pullback, likely to the 20-day EMA at $323 to $325.   This is perfectly healthy — and in fact welcome — given the recent drive to the long term resistance line pictured.   I expect it won’t be long before we are above that line and into the free air described in the “breakout zone.”

As for the weekly:

You can see we have broken above the long term downtrend line on the weekly chart, and are also seeing a bullish cross on the 13-34 week EMA’s.   The midweek doji indicates we may test lower, but again, it looks like we are headed out of the consolidation zone soon.

Last, I annotated the long term weekly chart of SLW just for shits and giggles, to show where it is in relation to the $HUI weekly above, and to point out some obvious (from a weekly prospective) target zones.    One thing I would point out is the long term fib lines show the 38.2% retracement line at $9.02, which we tested earlier this week.   Again, it’s perfectly natural to have the price level turn away at that important point.   Given the strength of the $HUI,  however, I expect that $9.02 will not hold twice.   Viz:

I will try to get back later tonight to update the Jacksonian Core performance stats, but I have to run to pick up one of the boys from lax practice.    You know, “the aerobic baseball?”

Best to you all.

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Jacksonian Core’s Performance  for 5/14/09 was largely flat, with ten “down” positions keeping their losses in the pennies.  On the other hand, of the four stocks in the black today, two —ANDE and TSO– were up over 5%, making it a market neutral day overall.:

ANDE — $20.88 (+5.51%)

GDX — $38.05 (+0.29%)

GLD — $91.03 (-0.07%)

IAG — $9.78  (-0.91%)

PAAS — $19.20 (-0.31%)

RGLD — $40.56 (-0.10%)

SLV — $13.85  (+0.29%)

SLW — $8.84  (-0.11%)

SSRI — $19.89 (-0.22%)

TBT — $48.94(-0.71%)

TC — $7.63 (-0.90%)

TSO — $17.21 (+6.96%)

Have a nice evening, all.

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