Last I saw him he was running around, all ass & tail, gunning down shots of Don Julio and screaming “New Lows in July, damnit!!”  

But here it is August, and the only lows I’m seeing are the catatonic stair steps of [[UUP]] as it heads to its crypt in the basement.  Remember my post about the “noise zone” from the other day?  Here’s our result:

Looks like $23 is the make or break area, here.   If we get there, I think we get at least a bounce.   Would not shock me to see further deterioration after that.

Again, that means good things for our PM and Jacksonian buddies, and they all rallied today, with the overall portfolio up 3.23% today and now breaking to new highs since our May 1st inception, with a return to date of 26.62%.   My only regret is that I didn’t put more cash to work last week when I upped my Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] holdings back to their former strengths.  

Another interesting note — while Mr. Anderson — The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] remains my top performer with a 92.81% return since May 1st launch, my second chasing close on his heels is also my newest pick Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which is up an astonishing 88.76% since first purchase back on June 16th at $15.04.    Most of the PM’s are in the 20’s percentile range (still off their June highs, mind you) with IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] leading that pack, up 32.06%.

The one Jacksonian clunker (for which I receive a large “cash” dividend) is Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] , at a negative (4.11%).   I will consider NRP’s inclusion in the ongoing list, unless it’s laggard status improves.

As for the best of the Jackson’s currently, the silvers seem to be standing out nicely, with my favourite (sic) Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] breaking out past it’s 61.8% fib, and looking to continue here to resistance in the near term at $11.00 or so.   I of course will hold onto it until the bonds of time are loosed.   Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] also looks extremely strong here, with another breakaway gap, up over 6% today like SLW.  [[PAAS]] was only up over 5% today, but is exhibiting the same tendencies.  

Last, non-Jackson junior silver [[EXK]] was also very strong today, with a nice volume spike and also gapping up over resistance. levels.   It seems to be heading to it’s recent highs ($2.40) , and I’d say that’s going to come quickly.   My analysis is that the Central banks were so busy suppressing gold today that they forgot about her little brother, and the beach ball popped above the water for all to see….

Onto the non-Jackson golds–  I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which is becoming almost Jacksonian in its stately and dignified rise here.   Take a look at it’s weekly chart when you get a chance — it’s a thing of beauty.   As mentioned in my comments section, [[BAA]] broke da Flummox out today over the $2.14 barrier I had mentioned in my chart the other day, and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (USA) [[IVN]] is looking to move higher.  I also still like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]],  even though it’s rise was crippled by the Curse of DMG early this morning.  

On the non PM front, I still very much like Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] — which also has A and B warrants, if you are interested in that type of thing.   I also applaud any of you that took my [[CNXT]] breakout signal chart from the other day to heart.  I think they’ll be more there, btw.  

 That should be enough for you to digest for now, but check in my comments section tomorrow for trading updates.   Best to you all.

Comments »

Yeah, I’m afraid our recent rise and today’s hiccup are all about the craptastic dollar, which my friend Cash & Guns pointed out yesterday may be indicating a rebound.   Let’s have a look at our favorite dollar proxy — [[UUP]] . Here’s the daily:
 

You can see on the daily chart above that we just popped into a pretty stiff consolidation zone today, and that it runs all the way to $24 — which is also close to the significant 61.8% retrace of that long term move at $24.06 or so.    But seeing as we’ve already penetrated that line, it’s now become resistance, and will serve as a barrier to our dollar rebound.

Now look at the weekly:

I will leave the conjecture up to you, but it looks like our $UUP dollar may have a hard time getting back over that $24 hump, even as it climbs back from that bear flag breakdown.   At least we know where the hard road lies, should it do so. 

Right now, I’m taking this as a signal to hold my precious metal positions.   Seeing as I’d do that anyway, you might rightly accuse me of pattern bias.  However, until the trend changes, I will not consider hedging my positions.

________________

[[CNXT]] , which I previewed here on Sunday night as a possible “BTFO” if it broke $1.50 did just that today, proving that the Fly’s tech thesis seems to be at least partially intact.   In honour (sic) of that win today, I will post two other “techish” names that look to be moving out of long term downtrends as well.

The first is really a medical device play, and — ironically — it was mentioned in a TC post to my blog the other night as a defense of the Israeli contributions to humanity (you’d think the Old Testament and Bar Raefeli would have been enough, but no, these guys just keep on giving).   Ladies and gentlemen, teeny tiny colon submarine producer Given Imaging Ltd. [[GIVN]] :

Note, that’s a weekly chart, which really emphasizes the significance of the trend break, IMHO.

Next weekly chart shows a similar strong trend change in Trimble Navigation Limited [[TRMB]] .   This one might even get all you “head and shoulders” fanatics’ back legs a twitching:

Comments »

I only have one daughter, and she’s something special. Today’s her ninth birthday and may I live to see many more. As I say, she’s something special, and she’s either going to drive me to an early grave or make me proud beyond all measure.

Or both.

Developing….
______________

As for the market, I’ve got some updates on the Jacksonians. I’ve decided, that — market precluding — I’m going to start giving updates only on a weekly basis. Two reasons for that.  One, it strikes me that you all are not ridiculously fired up to get a daily update, and two, it being somewhat of a pain in the ass to do daily, AND it being a long term portfolio, it’s better for us all if I just throw the chart out there once a week.   As you can see, I’ve done that below. 

I will continue to mention Jacksonians that “need to be bought” throughout the week, just as I hammered on [[TC]]  and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] this week.    I just won’t be plotting their every move.   It grows wearisome, and the feedback hasn’t been overwhelming.    Any of you who have specific questions, please feel free to ask in the comment section.

Some ideas for the upcoming week… two longs and a short.  First the longs, as I believe we may be in an upward spiral here to at least 1010 on the S&P 500.  [[CNXT]] is a crazy little tech play that’s been showing as much promise as Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] (a play I am already in).   I really like the recent moves, and think a cautious player should feel good about entering over $1.50.  The chart tells the story:

I also like coal and gas fired electricity producer Mirant Corporation [[MIR]] here. I made a ton of money on this company’s preferred’s back when it was in, and coming out of bankruptcy, and now that it’s out, it’s generationg asset heavy mix has started to perk up the acquisition minded utility market again. Whether this sucker ever gets bought out, it’s a perpetual bridesmaid and I believe it will gain traction in this coming cycle. The chart shows that interest moving:

Last my short possibility.  Now, don’t go crazy with this, as I think it may take a little time to develop.  Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] crapped the bed last Friday on some bad analyst talk.  Whether it will continue to break down will be the tale of the chart.  As you can see, I’ve marked where I think it’s safe to start shorting this ugly booted mother.   I’ve had some success in this one in the past, and if you believe, like me, that retail will lead the way down this Fall, then this is a nice one to keep an eye on.  Be cautious, however, and pay attention to the markers as indicated:

Last the Jacksons, and their moves from last week, which are mostly glorious. I have reduced cash somewhat in rebuying more Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and may deploy some more, especially as I have taken off the [[TZA]] hedge play. Until next time, ciao.
____________________

Name/		%		%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	17-Jul	Change	24-Jul	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$            28.47		$       30.99	8.85%		$        9,357	0.50%		Will be breaking new ground over $32.
EGO	9.21		9.27	0.65%		$        8,686	0.03%		Bouncing off 20 day (9.05)
GDX	38.64		39.90	3.26%		$      12,076	0.24%		Consolidation range pullback
GLD	91.93		93.41	1.61%		$      10,743	0.10%		Break of $94 important
IAG	10.22		11.11	8.71%		$      13,699	0.72%		Best long term hold in the PM’s
MON	75.41		84.16	11.60%		$      13,352	0.93%		Back over 200 day looking good again
NRP	23.12		23.00	-0.52%		$        4,774	-0.01%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
PAAS	19.24		19.68	2.29%		$      11,820	0.16%		Expect a pullback, but buy there ($19)
RGLD	40.67		41.78	2.73%		$      11,545	0.19%		Above all MA’s and looking strong again
SLV	13.17		13.66	3.72%		$      11,097	0.25%		$14.60 next target
SLW	8.48		9.23	8.84%		$        8,965	0.48%		200 day strong support @ 8.40
SSRI	19.15		20.08	4.86%		$      11,681	0.34%		Over evern MA and looking for more
TBT	53.56		53.19	-0.69%		$      10,596	-0.04%		Looking to make a move again
TC	12.36		14.75	19.34%		$      12,141	1.41%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TCK	21.06		24.49	16.29%		$      16,283	1.59%		A thing of beauty, get ready for pullback
TZA	–		–	0.00%		$              –	0.00%		Sold out remainder @ $18.26 this week
Cash (000)	$          16.89		$     16.89	0.01%		$    16,891	0.00%		Reduced by MON and TC purchases
AVG (weekly)				5.38%		$  183,706	6.87%
AVG (monthly)				3.00%		Actual
AVG (inception)				20.86%		Return	22.47%

Comments »