_____________________________
What do you know? After trying to fake me out by blasting past my $79.80 target today, the dollar capitulated and sold off deep to about $79.25 at the lows. It’s now about $79.40.

I think earl and gold are the plays here right now, and if you are not in my two “Samurai 7” earl plays, COP and PBR, then you want to really think hard about them tomorrow. That COP is just too phat at 8x trailing earnings and a nice yield to boot.

Moreover, I think it’s safe to say that SLW was the call for today.  Unfortunately, as I recounted in the comment section of my last post,  I missed my buy stop by about ten cents.  See what happens when you try to get finicky like that?  I think I’m better off just buying at market sometimes.

In any case, the PM trade seems to be back on for now, and besides my favorite silvers like AG and EXK, I would be looking to the gold juniors, specifically GDXJ (the ETF) and AXU and BAA if you can stomach the volatility.  Otherwise, AUY, GG and RGLD are looking good here, Lucy.

Best to you all.

_____________________________________________________________

 

Comments »

_______________________

As I mentioned the other afternoon, it looks like it won’t be long now, for the dollar and the precious metal markets to once again take different tracks.  And that should mean good things for the miners, as evidenced in what appears to be an approaching turn in the $HUI Gold Bug Index.

Turns out this whole Greek fiasco is becoming something of a mud-stomp for our swarthy souvlaki-eating, Ouzo-swilling band of molotav cocktail pitchers, and it appears that the European Community might even be angling to kick the Greeks out of the Euro no matter what.  Hey, as crazy as it’s become in Greece, at least they don’t have Federal officials inspecting their kids’ lunchboxes for “nutrition violations,’ yet, eh? 

I say so be it, and let it be done.  Either way it’s apparant that Big Brother Bernank is not going to let some rock-throwing, Fiat-torching proto-Spartans ruin his very stable run into the 2012 elections (and yes, he’s running too, believe it).  So be prepared to be awash in liquidity here.  Drachmas?  Schmachmas! Take some digital dollars and shut up, already. 

Around 8 am this morning, currency traders tried to make the dollar go “pop!” but gold and silver are currently calling bullshit on all that.  Yes, these three can sometimes rise together like the greatly undervalued kings of the comedy stage, Larry, Moe & Curly (not really) in a Depression-era movie house, but more often than not, this alliance is proven false within a matter of days, if not hours.  As I type this, mean-spirited Moe (the US dollar) is taking a pratfall from it’s earlier spike over $79.60, and Larry Gold and Curly Silver (the fat, dumb one), are careening higher.

As I mentioned earlier, I will also be looking for a turn in the miners here.  My weekly chart shows us approaching the bottom of that channel I pointed out the other day:

 

And the daily chart shows an even more clear bottoming in the stochastics.  Note also we almost touched the bottom of this (admittedly loose) consolidation triangle yesterday as well.   

 

 Quite a few of my stocks popped in the last hour of yesterday’s trading (along with the whole market, of course), including my March Madness pick, AUY. 

I had thought that contest was starting this Friday, for some odd reason that seemed truly logical only in my own beleaguered head.  I think that launch would have been perfect, but in the meantime, I’m in a bit of a hole, so be sure to purchase as much AUY as possible here, and to short that hideous purveyor of ethically questionable time-share vacations, AWAY.  Thanks in advance, and…

My best to you all.

___________________________

 

 

 

 

 

Comments »

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

__________________________

I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

_____________________________

 

Comments »

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monument Circle, Indianapolis, Complete with Super-Classy, Monster Roman Numeral Decor

_______________________________

The precious metal sector has gone HAM, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here these last few days.  I’m not a big crower, as I take the “That’s Life” Sinatra-version view of this crazy stock picking game.  In fact, if anything I’m ticked that I got caught with only 60% exposure to my favourite stocks in the PM sector, and having ditched my two internally leveraged stocks (AGQ and NUGT) only the day before this anti-grapist surge.  That said, my port is still well above even my Seven Samurai picks (currently at +11.4%) as of the first of the year, so things are good.

I also think I called the dollar top to within pennies (one of my predictions was that the dollar would fail at $81.50).   I think it has a bit to go, even as it may take a rest here to bounce on the support that has now become resistance (#2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we may get a bit of a pause here, but not much.  I will be adding on pullbacks and all the usual names will be good.

Let me take this opportunity, then, to point out my two “A” and “B” best PM stocks for the current moment.  I’ll do “B” first and admit right off that Banro — BAA is in fact, a Congo miner.  I make an exception, at least temporarily, to my rule about not taking too much political risk by noting that it controls over 2500 square kilometers of rich African resource land, and that it was incorporated (and still resides) in Toronto, Canada in 1951.  That’s a lot of embedded expertise and a lot of paid off pols in the Congo.  Consider it barrier to entry.

In any case it’s the chart I like, and when it gets back over $5, it’s going places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yamana (AUY), my second attractive Toronto-based player, seemingly breaks my rules because of its size (over $12 bn market cap), pointing out that it may be more an acquiror than acquired.  I like it’s benign Latin American exposure, however (Mexico, Brasilia, Colombia, Chile, etc.) , and think that it’s got one of the more promising charts (this one a weekly)  thanks to a long term breakout from a lengthy consolidation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll be trying to take these two in the next couple of days at $4.80 and $16.70 respectively, if I can.   My best to you.

_______________________________________

 

 

Comments »

Feed Me! Nom! Nom! Nom!

_____________________

Again, my friends, I must apologize for my scarceness on these pages.  I know there are times when many of you may plead for my acquittal from this site, as there are times (due to my acute boredom and incipient ADD) I am here commenting like an Algonquin Round Table wag at the height of the Flapper Era.  You must get sick of that.

But if December is always a rough month in my business, then the last week of December is often the grande chancre (sic) beyond all imaginings.   It’s been ever thus, and it doesn’t matter if I take the week off from work or not (and I do, in the grand tradition of my own bosses past, thereby leveraging my subordinates and allowing me some time with the family), as the former “filter” I thought I had constructed has fallen, by steps, to the technological immediacy of first voicemail, then e-mail, and finally (shudder) Skype.  And to think, this is not even a “capital gains lock-in” year.  Oy.

To make matter worse, this has also been the traditional week when Mrs. Gint gets together with her Wyrd Sisters and our aggregate families (10 children in all) here in town.  So between entertaining between 18-20 people (depending on when grandparents and great aunts/uncles/cousins arrive) a day/night, and juggling three live deals and one dying one via electronic media, I end up neglecting you, dear reader.  Again, I beg your pardon.

_____________________________

For those of you who were thinking that “The Stock of 2012” would be of the “precious” bent, well, good for you.  Valuations are at 52 week minimums about now for most of my favourites and if you are a loyal subscriber to The PPT, you know that most are also reading “oversold!” in a big way as well.

(Aside: You are crazy if you are not taking advantage of this end of year special for The PPT, as the overall market hybrid alone has been knocking the cover off the ball for those using the patented “Fly Step-in Methodology” for entrance and exit).

Well, yes, this is a good time to be accumulating SLW, EXK and AG, and GDXJ for the new year, if only for an oversold bounce (if you are feeling chicken).

But this year’s Pick of the Year is going to be something  you can put away for a longer to near terminal hold.  It’s the tightest ship in the shipping bidness (sic)– United Parcel Service (UPS).  I am biased, as I’m a long time holder of this King of the Transports (and the $TRAN weekly is looking very smart here, btw), but I think that 2012 may be the year that UPS finally “breaks through.”

Fundamentals are not my bag, so I won’t belabor them, but it is important to note that UPS is the market leader in package transport, with over 15 million pieces moved a year (over double that of rival FDX).  What’s more, despite its unionized work force (Teamsters and Independent Pilots Union), UPS manages to eke out considerably better margins (about 350 basis points better) than the flashy FedEx purple people, most likely due to its entrenched market presence and it’s flexibility in trucking delivery (for example, UPS delivers 1-day, 2-day and regular business deliveries all from the same vehicle route, while FedEx uses wholly different carriers for the different delivery times).

Of course UPS also offers a fatter dividend.  At 2.80% at current market prices (and I’d like to buy it closer to 3.0% anyway), it is about 220 basis points better than rival FDX.  UPS is a cash cow, with $3.5 billions in free cash to either reinvest in new planes and trucks or to mail back to shareholders.  UPS also uses that cash to buy back shares, which is of course accretive to overall value.

But UPS is also a great hold for the future, as  well.   Any good wife will tell you… the wave of the future is internet delivery of just about everything.  And if you love AMZN, God bless, they are a great company, but by no means impregnable from a barriers to entry standpoint.  Now, how would you like to try to start up a rival package delivery service that will meet up to Amazon’s exacting demands (not to mention your mother in law’s)?

See where I’m going with this?

Last but not least, from a technical standpoint, UPS is again nearing all time highs, which it will eventually have to surmount.   Like one of my better gold picks this year– AUY–, UPS has been attempting to break that “lid” at $75 for while now.   If earl prices remain somewhat accomodating, then I think this may be our year.   Note my weekly, which shows the formation that marks the $TRAN itself… a 13-week/34-week EMA crossover (the weekly “golden cross”) and an attempt at breaking to new highs:

And my daily chart shows where I’d like to enter… at the 20-day EMA, if possible:

 

And that is all for now, boys and girls.  I will be back with some predictions for 2012… I hope before the dawning of that auspicious, and seemingly most pre-benighted year.

Best to you all.

________________________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfhkuXuQ9eA 450 300]

__________________________

What are you doing moping about as if the moon has hit your eye like a big pizza pie?  That’s only ammonia (anhydrous), and don’t take big breaths if it’s making your eyes water.

Italian bonds made everyone in the market sad, and yet I chalked up another win in my real life.  This is getting kind of ridiculous and I’m beginning to see visions of fat smiling men wearing fezzes and carrying sharp harem scimitars from lack of sleep.   I could have the best year of my life and my wife could be spending it (and the insurance proceeds) with her new boyfriend on the Riviera this time next year.

And during all that chaos today the market was melting down.  At first my golds and even silvers hung tough, but then even they succumbed to the great vortex that if forming over the gladiator cages of the Coliseum in Rome.  Sylvio Berlusconi was the first round heeled slick bastard to get sucked into that vortex, but for all I know there’ll be prominent members of the Vatican entering it next, only to find themselves ended up in some alternate universe heaven or maybe an independent book store in Dubuque.

Tonight I thought the Herminator acquitted himself well, getting off a couple of good zingers on the Dem party faithful like Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Nancy “Princess” Pelosi.  Rick Perry’s Gaffemasters Speaking Tour continues to everyone’s great chagrin.  Mittster continues to disappoint with his pandering bullshit about a tax cut “for the middle class.”  WTF does that even mean, Mitt?  What is “the middle class” and aren’t “targeted tax cuts” an instrument of Democrat policy?  Get with the program or you’ll never get the nomination.

Newt Gingrich was clever, but looked like some kind of giant marionette up there on stage.  Could’ve been the lighting.   Rick Santorum looked like hell and geez!  Whine much?  Huntsman was equally unimpressive although he did try to make some good points on tax policy that were “acceptable.”   Michele Bachmann… I hate to be sexist but she’s pretty damn cute, and just as Stepford-ish as you can hope for.  Policy wise?  Meh.

I was busy today and did nothing at the site but watch the Monsieur buy some RGLD.  I looked at some SLW at the end of the day as well but got called into a meeting before I could do anything.  I do like that it’s coming down on it’s 200 day EMA.   I think it will bounce there, at $34.70, and that’s where I may be adding.

Besides those two, NGD and AUY held pretty strong relative to their peers.  Look to them tomorrow for a first bounce.

Hang in there, we are oversold like few times I’ve seen, and I think we rebound tomorrow, but maybe not until late morning.

Best to you all.

________________________

 

Comments »