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Grandmama Pops!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fo48YpNOesQ&feature=related 450 300] _______________________________

Ugh.  I cannot bloody believe it.  I just had a perfectly wrought lengthy post with graphics and witticisms galore… I pressed “Publish” and “voila!” I got the screen of zero tranquility.   Apparently my entire post was wiped save for the foolish youtube video I’d downloaded earlier and “saved” to make sure it was showing up.

These are the petty frustrations of the financial blogger my friends and they are enough to drive one mad with righteous anger.   So forget about the witticisms and the re-boot of my day of travel.  Just know that I believe silver is becoming dangerously overvalued here at 52% over its 200-day EMA, while gold stays strong but humble at only 11.4% over it’s same metric.

I didn’t sell anything more today because I was either driving or talking or talking and driving the entire trading session.  Had I seen these things, I would’ve dumped more silver miners.   I’ll probably do that tomorrow.   In the meantime, two friends have shown progress.   The first we spoke about mere days ago.  

Look what XG has done since:

The second is our beloved Grandmama… asleep these many months, but waking now to a new day.  Just as I predicted AGQ would rise to $300 this year, so too did I prophesy that RGLD would reach $100.   I think today was a significant step toward that goal.   Grab it on the retrace:

Note, this is a weekly chart and that’s one big grandmother of a consolidation…

I also like RBY here… stay well, my friends.

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Behold the Whirlwind

 whirlwind

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Silver’s lost its mind and is seemingly out of control.   It’s up another 75 cents tonight at at new highs in the upper $43.30’s.   Like a monkey that just had his rhubarb stick stolen, I’m standing here and continuing to sell into the whirlwind.

For example, I let loose another 600 shares of AGQ, this time at over $285.   I marvel at that price, as I can remember buying AGQ in the $20’s the first time around, and now you can make the downpayment on a decent Miami Beach condo with only 100 shares.  

I also sold more EXK, more MVG, and started selling SLW for the first time this year.  Last, I sold a large piece of my NGD, which had become cumbersome in it’s size, but is now more manageable.

Don’t get me wrong — I still have some 65% of my original PM positions, I just have a gut feeling, honed on many years of having that same gut knifed by this thinly traded murderous market, that it’s time to take some profits here.   Pigs get slaughtered, etc.

I will continue to look for a break here in the silver momentum.  I don’t expect it will very long when it comes, but it might be scary enough to shake some of our weaker hands.   I will look for more opportunities to divest into the whirlwind tomorrow as well.

My best to you all…

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You’re All I’ve Got Tonight

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEEUGaQTTQ0&feature=related 450 300]

(Can you believe this guy once married the most beautiful woman in the world?)

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It’s an unsettling time isn’t it?  Jake just said to you scant days ago, “Time to trim the sails, we’re in for some rough weather,” and yet silver keeps marching up to some argent Elysium, like a donkey with an egregious rutabaga tied to its head.

It can be frustrating, no?  Well, don’t take it hard.  Heck,  I sold almost 2,000 shares of AGQ the other day thinking I’d buy back in the low 200’s.  Silly me.

But I don’t let stuff like that get me down.  As I was explaining to a compatriot on The PPT today, we shouldn’t be afraid to hop right back on, even at a higher price, as long as we maintain the discipline to re-invest the same or smaller moneys that we originally received in exchange for our sold shares.  

This is important to remember.   Just like in the wider stock market, there are plenty of other shiny metal fish in the seas, and we need to build the maturity to be able to re-allocate resources to other, perhaps better valued opportunities.  A good example I can provide would be my decision, some time ago, to sell some SLW and apply those funds to a new stock I’d decided reminded me of old SLW at the $3 level at which I had originally begun buying it.

That stock, some of you may recall, was EXK.  

Today the cycle turns again, and I find myself selling off some (about 30%) of my “topped off” position in EXK in the $12+ regions.   Those on The PPT will attest that I took a full 10,000 shares off last week.

I have yet to buy any back, and I may never do so.   My eye has turned to other seeds that may enrich my garden plot.  Perhaps some GPL?  Some AG?  A touch of AUMN, or crappy BAA?

… or maybe, just maybe some more XG, my favorite spinoff junior goldie, which is beginning to look might ripe:

Stay thirsty, my friends.

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My What an Enjoyable Ride…

Saw Coaster

… No?

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What’s the matter? You don’t like gut-scissoring roller-coaster rides with your daily portfolio analysis?

C’mon, Mr. Pushups, suck it up.   Take one for the team, bear down.  Raise greasy lettuce for samitches.

Did you sell anything today?   I did, but not a whole lot.   My biggest move today was gettting rid of about half of my AGQ earlier today at prices north of $261.   It’s a deleveraging play, much like getting rid of my call options the other day.  I also sold 40% of my PAAS at prices well north of $41.60

 I didn’t sell any more EXK (I’d already dropped 10k shares last week), even though it did the “Egregious St. Vitas Dance” today.   It’s interesting to note my warning post of last week here.  Recall this?

Remember that green line I drew up there when I was cautioning you to let a little go last week?  Well, here’s that same chart today…

Uncanny, no?  

Will it hold?  I’m not sure, and we must remember these momentum burners tend to have the harshest pullbacks.   That said, I still like EXK on a further pullback, as well as SLW if you are lucky.   On the young gold side, AAU, NGD and yes, EGO are already starting to look tasty.   ANV is not far behind, and keep in mind also “dark horse” and relatively recently introduced XG.   If it continues to move  like this I will do a feature on it soon.  

Keep in mind these things can get oversold in two days… it’s just that volatile.   So be ready with your trenchers full of soapy cabbage for opportunities that will be knocking sooner than you might believe.

Best to you all.

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Get Motivated

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSYtQy9EqTA 450 300] (Highly Recommend the movie, “Snatch,” by the way)
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Stuff has gotten a bit frothmatic here, and that means I will likely be taking some more off the table. I sold 70% of my SLW calls on Thursday and Friday of last week, and more than 50% of my GDXJ calls as well. I didn’t touch my IAG calls or my WNR calls, and I will let those two ride a few more days.  But all in all, I will be reducing leverage (options) here, rather than increasing.

Silver has gone ham in a way that makes all sane pigs quake with fear for their hocks.  Will this parabolic pole-vaulting continue?  Oh yes, it will, be assured.

But not without massive, gut-wrenching pullbacks that will have you alternatively cursing your mother and calling out for her like a stoat suckling, lost in the Deep Wood.  The key here will be staying porcine without losing your belly to the Bacon Merchants of Chicago.   Always remember, young chitlins — Oscar Meyer has no friends, despite his great wealth.

What’s still viable?  It’s questionable this week, as the profits will have to be snatched and then held close like a small hamster family you found in a rain storm.  I will be harvesting some AGQ here, for sure.   I will take from my other various silver nest eggs, and convert some of them (but not so much) into hideous useless “green paper,” for a short period.  

Some still harbor promise, however, and for the bold, I offer my EGO for your approval.  Note on on this weekly chart, we’ve achieved the triangle break we’ve been seeking… however so slightly:

Not impressed with that seemingly slight break?  Let’s look at it on the daily, then…

There, that’s better, no?  Truthfully, I don’t know what this sucker is going to do.  There are a lot of nice gold stocks that look like they are going to move this week, but I can’t help but feel like we are playing on borrowed time right now.   Play if you like, but be ready to take some off so we have plenty of cash for the next round of C-wave highlights.

We are not done here, ladies and gents, but the road will be bumpy before it gets like it was last week again.   Keep some crappy green lettuce ready for that event.

Slainte.

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Relax, Have a Burger

 big burger

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As beautiful as silver and gold are, you cannot eat them.  No, not even the Wonka Bar wrappers or the Hershey’s Kiss coverings you’ve meticulously assembled into a quilt for the spare bedroom.

No, since they are only useful as “stand-in” for a much poorer form of currency, one can only use silver and gold as placeholders for the more awful green stuff that we can then exchange for our MACDonalds (sic) greasy burgers and large fries.

In other words, sometimes you have to sell– even the good stuff.   So why not, then,  cash a little in when things are getting a bit overstretched?   Especially in the instance of a number of our small silver miners.   EXK is one of my favorites, for instance, but even I can’t turn a blind eye to the recent break out of the triangle and (as I’d predicted) parabolic advance immediately thereafter.  Now may be the time to scoop a bit of cream off the top… just to make sure you have pizza money:

I think we blast through $12.00 tomorrow, and I do believe I will take off one sixth of my position when that happens, ensuring myself beer money for the weekend.

I also think AGQ and some of the other miners are in similar rarified air.  I may shave some off of those as well.

If I have some money left after many a frosty bottle downed, I may even grab some more of IAG, as I believe it’s months long “saucer” consolidation is at an end and it will soon be headed to $30, and more:

Note the above is a weekly chart, and that’s a long time coming chart if I’ve ever seen one.  I also see similar breakout potential in both EGO and NGD, the former being more immediate than the latter. 

I will try to post some more chart looks tomorrow.  There’s a lot to be excited about.  Play safe.

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