Home / Tag Archives: AGQ (page 4)

Tag Archives: AGQ

Pumpkin Head Market

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEDw9xgSmSc 450 300]


I’ve found a bipartisan effort I invite you all to get behind.  Yes, that was me, invoking the word “bi-partisan.”   Harken quickly and not so lightly, as this will surely be a rare occurence not often repeated.

What I’m talking about is Representative Jeff Flake’s idea to “Staple Green Cards to PhD diplomas” so as to make sure we don’t cede any of that freshly minted U.S.-educated talent back to the Third World and worse (in the case of the Red Chinese).   Even President 0’Bama has gotten behind the idea, despite his telling Steve Jobs that he couldn’t sever the Gordian Knot of immigration reform gumming up the Congress.

And why not, I ask you?  Post-secondary education is one of Americas remaining differentiating advantages, and smart children from the world around come here to take advantage of it.  Why shouldn’t we make it easier for those bright individuals to enhance our quality of life here, not to mention add to the employment ranks by creating new businesses and hiring even more people?  Did you know that half of Silicon Valley start-ups over the last two decades have been started by foreign born individuals?

Howabout this — we wouldn’t even have Steve Jobs were his Dad not here on a student visa.  Serendipitous, no?

Maybe we should take the cue?


Well that dollar bounced severely today, and so did my Skiffles, which are my one remaining hedge.  They weren’t enough to make up for the blood on the ground from my newly minted mining additions, but I’m not even yet half invested, so I’ve got a lot of room and a lot of dry powder…

And a lot of patience.

I will be adding to my Skiffles tomorrow, however, if the dollar continues it’s climb.  Gold is holding up strong here, and so is silver, which bodes well for the miners.  If this were a real commodity sell off, silver would’ve been bludgeoned far worse today.   BAA is a quarter shorter than yesterday and I might add to my holdings there in the morning, as I really liked the way it looked like it was being accumulated at the end of the day.

If you want to play with more generic pieces, keep GDX (large cap gold), GDXJ (junior gold) and SIL (silver miners) in mind to play the ETF field.  For the more adventurous, like m’self, I also like NUGT on a pullback here as well as AGQRGLD, last of all, is showing nice relative strength.

See you tomorrow, I hope.


Comments »

Midas is My Bitch

Sit, Midas, Stay!

I was away on business in outer Lobos Lobovia today (somewhere in the untracked wilds of the Midwest), when I received a cell phone text from my dog, Midas (above).   She’s been trained to faithfully call me whenever I’m away from the screen and there’s a significant opportunity in the precious metals… especially the miners.   She’s to do this no matter how busy I am, and mein gott have I been busy.   Still, she has her training… so…

“Roof!” She said, “roof, urf, roof!”   Loosely translated, this meant “buy MVG,” but that’s of little consequence when you could have bought anything in the PM sector today (save maybe PAAS) and you’d have made a crop of coin.  So who says dogs are smart, right?

Anyway, MVG was up 6% including after hours today.  AAU was up 12.7% today.  Guess what wasn’t up so much today?  If you said “BAA” you get a prize.  It was flat most of the day, only to trade up a shade under 3% in after hours.   Can you guess what I’m going to be buying tomorrow, time allowing?

My dog Midas knows.


Again, my apologies for being away from you, friends.  It’s truly been one of the busiest weeks I’ve had since I was a gruntling analyst fresh out of my white shoe training program.  And shit, it’s only Wednesday.

That news in itself should be somewhat indicative to you.  Money is moving people, on both sides of the balance sheet.

Given this pace, I may not even make it to the weekend.   So if I don’t, let me share my outlook.  I think we should be aware we could be on the cusp of a cataclysmic move in the PM’s.   The dollar has broken that support at $76, and as I type it’s at $75.89 on the index.   Gold has responded, and is above $1700 again.  I think we’re on the way back up, and am cautiously adding to my piles as time allows.

Silver’s been something of a laggard, but I may take advantage of that by adding to my AG and EXK tomorrow.  If my readings are correct, we’ve still a ways to go in those names.   I may even indulge in some AGQ.  Juniors in the gold sector should also be considered.  Grab GDXJ if you don’t want to choose.   Take care, and I will try and drop in on you tomorrow.

Best to you all.





Comments »

Bloody Exhausted

Herman Cain

Fast Winning a Place in Jake’s Heart

…And bloody and exhausted.  I just did a lot of driving on some client work and it’s been a rough couple of days. The meetings were far afield and I had to sleep in a Brady Bunch-era Courtyard by Marriott last night. The hotel clark (sic) looked like he could have been the Crypt Keeper’s younger brother, sans the warm and vivacious personality.

What’s more on the way back I passed the time rocking to a zillion 30 year old Sirius satellite tunes (First Wave with the Swedish Eagle) while trying to peruse the various iBC posts of interest on my B’berry. I know, “safe as houses” right?

Not so safe, however, when you come across the post remarking how French population call Le Monsieur “L’Envincible Le Fly.”
I almost rolled into a passing semi after I’d seen that one.

Anyway, my “all day business” today forced me to put a stop on my AGQ position early this morning. To my chagrin, that stop was hit.  Now I’ll never be able to introduce my children and grandchildren to my horde of “double stuff” silver paper.  Ah well, comme ce, comme sa.

I have stops in on other mining positions as well, but only NGD’s was hit today.    Last, I doubled the size of the TZA position I put on last night and added another 2k of Skiffles to my horde.   Both positions were up huge today, as you might imagine.   I wish I could say the same for my remaining benighted silver and gold miners.

Tomorrow I’ll be back in and better able to monitor the situation, but make no mistake, I am increasingly bearish here…  That should be good for a nice counter rally about 11:00 am tomorrow.   Stay tuned,  and don’t hock your hoop earrings and tongue bolts just yet.

Best to you.


Comments »

Owsley Brown II, R.I.P.

Owsley Brown II


Owsley Brown II, a pillar of the city of Louisville in the truest sense of the word, passed last evening, at age 69.  It was quite sudden and unexpected and most of us who knew him are in shock, as he was a very vigorous and youthful man who was intimately involved with many charitable and cultural organizations throughout the city.

If you know me, you know that I am not overly impressed by those types we referred to at school as “born on third base.”   In the case of Mr. Brown however, I make a significant exception.  We were not close, not even “friends,” but I had enough interaction with the man in social and work situations to note both his grace and his almost anachronistic humility.   He had a smile for everyone, and never seemed out of sorts.

Some of the obituaries already printed (like this one in the Wapo) make mention of his charitable activities, but in truth these reports only scratch the surface.  The man truly embodied the aphorism “to whom much is given, much is expected.”  I believe his generosity will be his lasting legacy in the city.

I excerpt the beginning of the Washington Post obituary below:

Former Brown-Forman CEO Owsley Brown II dies at age of 69 after

brief illness

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Former Brown-Forman Corp. chairman and CEO Owsley Brown II, who took the company founded by his great-grandfather and spread its reach to liquor stores, bars and restaurants worldwide, died late Monday after a brief illness. He was 69.

Brown’s sudden passing drew an outpouring of reaction from political leaders who praised his business skills and philanthropic spirit.

“Louisville lost a great friend today; he will be missed,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who praised Brown’s “pioneering career” and “generous philanthropic efforts.”

Brown oversaw the Louisville-based company’s transformation into a formidable player in spirits markets worldwide. Late in his career, Brown-Forman shed its Lenox fine china and Hartmann luggage divisions to focus on its core beverage business.

Brown-Forman is one of the largest American-owned spirits companies. Its long lineup of brands includes Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Southern Comfort and Finlandia vodka.

“Owsley was a truly remarkable man with a brilliant mind,” said current Brown-Forman CEO Paul Varga. “His combined analytical and creative talents enabled him to be both a visionary and a practical steward of the company’s business.”

In its last full fiscal year, Brown-Forman reported net income of $571.6 million, or $3.90 per share, on revenue of $3.4 billion. The company has nearly 4,000 employees worldwide.

Brown, a Yale graduate who earned a master’s in business administration from Stanford University, served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Army at the Pentagon, according to a Brown-Forman release.

He began his Brown-Forman career in 1968, continuing a family legacy that began with the company’s founding in 1870.

Brown rose to become the company’s CEO in 1993 and added the title of chairman two years later. During his tenure, Brown-Forman dramatically boosted its international presence and modernized its marketing efforts.

When he took over as CEO, less than one-fourth of Brown-Forman’s net sales came from outside the U.S. By the time he stepped down as chief executive officer in 2005, nearly half of Brown-Forman’s revenues were generated from international markets. That trend has continued, and the company now gets about 55 percent of its total net sales from non-U.S. markets.

Brown retired as company chairman in 2007 and from its board of directors in 2008.

He was also a prominent philanthropist and preservationist known for his support for art, music and environmental protection.


I have done nothing different with my portfolio today, save that I took out a large TZA insurance policy to augment my SKF-lles position.  I still maintain my already noted position in AGQ and my other small gold and silver positions.  I am still about 40% cash.

I am again traveling this evening and all day tomorrow, but will check in as I may.

Best to you all.


Comments »

Premature Emasculation



Sometimes I don’t know what’s wrong with you people.   Hootin’ and hollerin’ like a bunch of purple Kool-Aid grape apes, rooting on a man’s demise in slo-mo barely contained rage.

I speak, of course, of last night, when there were more than a few on these boards who were ready to spit on a broken wheelchair in their haste to condemn we beknighted silver bulls in our darkest hour (that dark hour being about 3 am last night).   What an ugly display… and most ungentlemanly.

But these ungainly thugs were left grasping at phantoms by an hour or so before the market open this morning, when silver had fought it’s way back to just under $30 and ounce.   More important, the silver trend line held today in AGQ.   Not, as I had thought, at first support, but rather exactly at the long term trend line.

Sometimes when these things work so perfectly, it’s almost like a thing of magick (sic).  This morning, right around 10:00 am, I stood in awe as the candle bottom stopped right at the rising trend line that’s marked this bull since the ’09 Recovery, hovered there for about fifteen minutes, and then slowly — inexorably — made it’s climb through second support, all the way to that first support line.   Note the change from yesterday’s AGQ weekly:




















 The bounce off that uptrend line is very strong ju-ju, especially given that we are still extremely oversold in the PM and silver sectors specifically.  We might get some “stall” at that first support line we stopped at today, or we may not.  Silver is up this evening again, although we know from last night how great the overnight swings can be in this sport.

I do think that uptrend line will be tested at least once more, unless the dollar begins to break here significantly.   If it does, I will likely supplement by adding more EXK, SLW and AG to the port.   One thing is for sure… you have your line in the sand for all major stops, whether mental or fixed.

Best to you all, and try not to let the hatahs hate too much on you.  It’s hateful.  😉

Comments »

Golden Geese and Silver Too

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u69VNU4pJ4I&feature=player_embedded 450 300]


Some said we were crazy on Friday when we began “buying the blood” late in the afternoon like a bunch of crepuscular vampyres banging our fists at the front desk of the Red Cross Depository.

And maybe we were.

But there was a plan in mind, and one part of it was taking into account the massively oversold status of the metal in the near term.   The other was the support levels we were beginning to hit.  I thought we were ready for a bounce of some velocity.

That doesn’t mean I think this down-stroke is over.  Not altogether, at least.   Just like I don’t think this overall market bear cycle is over, and that we’ll get further down action there as well.  What I do believe is that we’ll get that nice rebound here, and then have to be out again for the next drop when we whack near-term resistance.    Note the following markup of the AGQ (double silver) weekly:




















As you will note, the party should be over by $150 or so, and I’ll be out of much of that AGQ by then, if not sooner.  Because the weekly is showing that while the RSI is near-term oversold, the remaining stochs are pointing to further ruination.  What’s more, that long term trend line is beckoning (as per the chart above), and it’s very likely that we will see it one more time (at sub $100) before we see new highs again.

What I don’t think, however, is that we get another deflationary event like we did in 2008.  Not for a while now, at least.

Of course, this is a play fraught with risk, and I will have stops in place that will respect the volatilty of the double-ETF, while also accomodating my overall risk profile.   I implore you to do the same, and perhaps consider SLV as a replacement vehicle for this trade if you lean to the more risk averse.

My best to all of you this weekend.


Comments »