Apparently, this was not the first time!
… or the second, third, fourth, etc., etc….
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yD43OrcjDI 450 300]
Overall thumbs up to the RNC. Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all. They are the opposite of slick. Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling. He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile. Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant. To whit:
“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”
Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw). He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial. His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.” Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.
I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done. Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services. The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century. The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it, and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection. God bless us all.
I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise. I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions. I also like SLV for the duration here. Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver. I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs. We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40). We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.
For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback. If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.
I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.
Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75). I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.
Best to you all.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aO9tA5DWJM 450 300]
The above is satire, of course, but let’s not laugh too hard at the funny kiddies. In certain European states, the “path to success” is through the government bureaucracies. Is the U.S. approaching that level? Food for thought.
If you have not already, you should be trimming your silver and gold positions, or at least the leveraged ones. We’ve had nice move here, so let’s not get too greedy. I’m out of AGQ, NUGT and ERX as of this morning. I’ve also trimmed between 35-50% of the remainder of my largest positions.
Have a great Friday.
Bonus Crony! This goes out to the speech stomping Jim H, (D- Croneyville).
Tribute to Mr. Mays….[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVrCKk45cZQ 450 300]
You guys know me by now, I hope. Therefore, you are well aware that I am about as conservative a person as you are going to meet, this side of the ossified gentlemen mouldering away in the leather chairs of the University Club, NYC. And with some quirkly exceptions, I’d say that conservatism marries both economic and social philosophies. I am pro-life for instance (both ways).
Despite all that, and despite my pro-life advocacy, I must join the growing multitudes calling for the resignation of this confused individual, Todd Akin. Truth be told, I was not really following this Missouri race until the bizarre controversy stemming from this man’s odd analysis of rape (“legitimate” or otherwise!) and pregnancy bubbled up this past Monday evening. You can read more about it in the attached article.
What I do know about Missouri is that Clair McCaskill was/is not well loved, as I’ve friends in various parts of Missouri, including St. Louis and some of the more rural areas. As far as the recent well contested primary (11 bidders!), however, I knew nothing.
I’ve since learned that Akin rose above the horde to win narrowly in the primaries, with the help of statist religous Huckster Mike Huckabee. There are few “Republicans” I loathe more than Huckster, who mingles self-righteous smarm with typical statist RINO “do gooding,” courtesy of the taxpayer’s dime. The fact that Akin is associated with Huckster immediately puts him in the negative column for me, no matter what his dopey views on pregnancy via rape. Moreover, his views, whether misstated or not, do nothing but cast a very serious position off the moral high ground. For that alone he should be interred in the “foot in mouth” Hall of Fame, and summarily dumped. Missouri deserves better than McCaskill for sure, but they do not deserve this dope.
On the matter of Peter Thiel, the FaceBook Sour Grapes and the Cramer Clown Show… I will say merely this:
Peter Thiel took considerable risk by pledging a substantial amount of his (then) small VC fund to the then little-known idea of “the Facebook,” which was at the time being dwarfed by MySpace and other rivals. He waited some five years to get liquid on that investment, which for a VC is typical-to-lengthy. Almost 100% of VC’s have a business model that states “sell at the IPO” as a matter of fiduciuary duty (they are not in the stock asset managment business but the new venture business). That Thiel did what he told his investors he would do when he raised his funds, thereby fulfilling his duty to them is quotidian. That Facebook was valued at a very high multiple of current (and future!) earnings was a combination of cultural knowledge and market hype. There is no arguing these facts, this side of logic and sanguinity.
There has been some talk that perhaps Thiel should give up his board seat as he has released his investors from their Facebook venture investment (they are of course free to buy the company on the open market, but that’s not venture investing). I might agree with this, given Thiel’s only remaining investment is his own, at 5.6 million shares (oh, you missed that piece in all the invective, did you?). That said, he was an original investor in the company, so the board may value his perspective and advice at this point. Whatever the end, however, it is certainly a board decision as to whether Thiel remains or not. Thus far, he has conducted himself rationally and like a gentleman, all noxious statements by Daytrade Cramer aside.
This temporary pullback in the miners is a mere bag of shells. I am carrying on with my trades as described.
Good day, sirs.
Avast Mateys! It’s time to strike the main sail and deploy the twin outboard Mercuries, as Her Majesty’s Treasure Frigate, The H.M.S. Dollar-Dollar Bill, is taking on water and listing amidships! Now is out time to pounce, Jag-you-are (sic) – style.
As I type, the dollar has broken below the crucial $82.00 “line o’ death” it’s been flirting with this last month, and fighting against even as all the stochastics began to show divergences marking an imminent change. I think that change is here, and provided we finish the day below $82.00 (we are at $81.94 right now), I think we should be clear to fly until at least $80.70, which is the long term 50% fibonacci. I do believe we should bounce then, just in time for a little September flattening while the dollar gets ready for a test of the 38.2% fib line down below $79.00. That should coincide with some nice seasonality for the precious, which always seems to be great offerings for the Turkey Gods, come November.
As I mentioned yesterday, I pushed the risk pedal with some AGQ, as silver was moving first. However, I think today is gold’s catch up day, so if you want to add to your NUGT for a brief period, I wouldn’t gainsay that additional leverage. As always, I recommend small and cautious with these instruments. If you are seeking less “muss & fuss,” GDXJ is probably our most oversold ETF, as it got cranked the hardest in the recent “junior miner recession” this Spring. It’s relatively overbought in the near term, but nonetheless a good bet to test it’s 200-day EMA here ($23.40) before pulling back.
A more speculative play is AUQ, which got trounced recently on bad numbers, but appears to be forming an island bottom on the daily chart, and has almost a full dollar gap to fill north of here. Of course, the landscape is littered with these plays, and some of far higher quality. Keep an eye on the 200-day EMA of gold bull index $HUI for a near-term guide. It’s next resistance (top right of a daily cup) coincides with that 200-day mark, at about $465, and that should provide the near term stand by.
Happy near-term buccaneering to you all, me mateys!
It looks like Argentum Silver is leading the PM hordes forth again, most likely as a direct predecessor to another dollar break here. Up over 2.5% as I type and outpacing it’s usually more lively cousin, Aurum Gold, which is up only one-tenth as much.
I think this is a good sign, even for you non-PM investors, as silver is the more sensitive to the “commodity” and “industrial” sectors, and it’s rise here should be good news for all of you commodity speculators, whether you be earl rustlers or coal bandits. I will continue with my investments in refiners until they stop making sense, however, even with a rise in earl. I continue to like WNR and PSX, for instance. HFC as well.
For silver bugs, I went long(er) today by adding to my AGQ position, for the short term trip to the 200-day EMA, at close to $50 right now. I will likely sell this additional piece off when we reach that mark, however, as I don’t like to be too heavily leveraged in this volatile metal. At least, not for any length of time.
I also like EXK here, despite it’s continue pokiness compared to jackrabbit AG. SSRI also seems to be re-gaining ground, if you are of the speculative sort. As always, SIL and SLW are the formidable base of my silver horde, and I recommend those for any toe dippers.
Best to you.