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…. the hard way!
Let me caveat what I am implying here by saying first that I fully expect the commodity price of gold to test the late 2011 lows of $1523, and perhaps even undercut them to really get the blood flowing. I am prepared for that, as I realize the run to $1900 — much like the run to $49 in silver, was too far and too fast, even in a fiat printing, race to the bottom, currency bubble. But with the $Gold:$HUI index approaching 2008 crisis highs, and the $Gold:$XAU index now reaching an unprecedented height, I am copacetic about holding what I have while becoming poised for a final shake out where I can harvest some of my favorite names once again.
Opportunities abound in high quality names, some of which offer dividends while one waits (I’ve already added AEM, as you know). There’s no need to stretch on speculation, now, and look for any miners doing business outside the safe zones of Canada and the U.S. and Mexico for some silver plays. RGLD at these prices is insane, and if you are worried about this pullback, please review that company’s past charts over the last ten years. All of these stocks — yes, even the quality ones like SLW and AUY — have trod this rocky path before. In my opinion, these, along with their underlying commodities, preferably held in part in the physical bullion, will help you weather the coming storm in collective currency crisis.
If however, you believe that Ben Bernanke can be the first Federal Reserve Chief to successfully inflate the economy out of a low growth, value inhibiting recession, then perhaps your trust in this new bull is warranted. In my business, and in the entire economy, I see inflated prices for everything already, so the valuations of the stock market come as no surprise. As we approach major all time highs in the SPX, I am increasingly skeptical that we can continue without a major correction, just as I was in late 2007-2008, when we saw similar overwrought behavior. I may miss the final euphoric highs, as I did last time, but I will not end up like the Capo Vito, either.
To be sure, I am not telling you to buy these miners at this bloody juncture. Even I am holding off for the turn, as I mentioned a few times over the last month. But I would also counsel you not to short a bull, no matter how wounded. Bulls are mighty, long lived beasts, and despite their weariness, can leave one singing soprano with little to no advance warning.
Best to you all.
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silver bitchezzzzzzzz
You never give up, do you?
I wouldn’t touch any of the miners right now. I don’t care how good of a company they are.
Sorry you’re still having all that trouble with reading comp. Have you tried Learning House?
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+1
There is opportunity in the miners now.. for sure. What time frame, what names and how much upside remain to be seen. Patience is the play here
Exactly. Wait for the $ top.
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Jake, where do you think $ will top?
With JPY dropping, do not think Japanese are not sending their cash to USD assets right now? EURassets does not seem to be an option for them.
JG,
You say the safe zone of US, CAN, an MEX but then subsequently mention AUY and RGLD as high quality names. Both of these have significant assets outside this safe zone. In fact AUY has a major stake in the highly interventionist country of Argentina while RGLD has assets all over including Africa.
I own both of these names too, but was thinking of cutting back on AUY in particular, especially after seeing Argentina nationalize one of the oil companies. What’s your take good sir?
I think RGLD is well diversified and this pullback is not reflecting nationalization risk. AUY’s Argentinian exposure has been digested as well. This drop is not about that. I like AUY’s Mgmt.
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Let you all know that I traded a few gold coins for palladium. I expect the price of gold to breach $2K while scientists find a new method to clean car exhaust in a matter of days. Hours probably.
But I am bitterly hanging on to RGLD and added a few extra shares of SLW just for the added pain.
I’ve been accumulating a little platinum and plan to get some palladium + some platinum & uranium miners w a 3-5yr horizon
Gold nanoparticles. It’s the future. Google it.
Jake, what % of your portfolio is PMs? I realize it”s none of my business but I just wanted to know how committed you are.
Did you reduce any of your holdings near the recent top? How much are you adding here?
Thanks for any insight.
It’s over 50%, but I also have large holdings in big caps like UPS, MON, COP, BF.A, etc,
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The depositor confiscation event in Cyprus is an orchastrated plan to get Russia into the EU.