The Deconstruction. Note the “Poleaxed Look.”
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Most of you who have followed this blog have also registered my laments with regard to the Presidential Politics of 2102. Like many a conservative who can parse economics and math, I wrung my hands regarding the presidential roster that we were offered this year. No Mitch Daniels, no Bobby Jindal, and no Paul Ryan. All were conservatives, and moreover, all intellectual powerhouses that that would have systematically disassembled the Obama Mistake with devastating power and cool analysis. Instead we got baggage laden prospects like Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain, or worse, one trick social conservative ponies like Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann. I ventured close to despair in realizing that the only legitimate prospect my party entertained was a Northeast Governor who had established a progenitor for Obamacare.
But I must say I took some heart in the vigor with with Romney, when finally bestowed with the nomination, took on the Obama record. While holding back on the big guns that might train on the President’s character and past, Romney has attempted to make this election about the President’s record as President, which has been singularly abysmal.
And then he shocked me again. By choosing Paul Ryan as his running mate — a Kennedyesque Catholic out of Janesville, Wisconsin — instead of the safer Rubio (Hispanic Floridian), Portman (Swingstate Ohian middle roader), or Nikki Haley (female Indian Governor of South Carolina) , Romney has essentially thrown the gauntlet down. With this pick , Romney has said to conservatives “No, really, this is about the fiscal future of this country.” On the other hand, he has said to liberals and Obamanites, “Your way is not sustainable, and I’ve hired the one man who will tear your fantasy world to shreds.” (See above for further analysis).
I could not be more pleased. Mr. Romney has drafted, essentially, the anti-Obama. The young man whom seniors trust, despite his very adult analysis of Medicare, because he knows what that program needs to do to remain solvent. Romney has drafted man who will have a serious conversation that will send the demagogues sprinting for the exits. Vice Presidential debates? Are you familiar with the term “flensing?” I can’t think of a more appropriate metaphor.
The smartest man in Congress is now in the hunt. The Republic is in the balance. Let the contest begin.
Gold looking good, stay the course with those ETF’s I mentioned last week.
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I am very happy with his pick. Ryan will galvanize party. HOWEVER, Ryan will hurt the markets in the short term.
Austerity.
Nah, the austerity meme is overplayed. We still need liquidity. There are literally trillions on the private side sitting on the sidelines, doing nothing, because they are scared shitless of the this clueless Administration.
Trillions.
To worry about the gov’t not wasting more debt obligation is to worry about the wrong problem.
Confidence. Confidence is the problem.
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Confidence is not the problem. Economics does not work on confidence. Economics is supply and demand. Money is on the sidelines because there is no demand. Why would businesses hire and invest if there is no demand for their goods? The consumer is still deleveraging. It’s as easy as that. Whoever wins office for the next four years will see the consumer finally deleverage and private credit will begin expanding again. Then whoever is in office will say “see! Look what I did! My policies worked!”
Watch Romney get elected, pass some insane balanced budget, and then watch the economy and markets tank. Then you will see a lack of confidence.
Wrong. There’s trillions in new investment just waiting for the economic uncertainty driven by innumerate and authoritarian govt to clear with rationality back at the helm. Willy nilly fiat decree might be okay for Venezuela, but it’s hell on the global economic engine.
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I would beg to differ on the confidence theory based solely on what I observe in my own community. There are a lot of farmers around here and while raw milk prices have been moderate, prices for field crops including everything from hay to corn have been through the roof. They are making money hand over fist….at least those with irrigation this year. A little back of the napkin math illuminates the fact that many around here will pocket 500-1,000K this year after the deduct planting costs.
They are not spending it. They are holding on to it or paying cash for what they do buy. They are nervous. They don’t know what’s coming but to a person they want to have a little cushion of cash on hand.
The prevalent comment I hear goes something like this. “We don’t know what is going to happen with taxes, with subsidies, with commodity prices, with the global economy etc etc so we are not spending.”
It has much to do with confidence.
Exactly. Working on an ag deal right now… I’m a city boy, so seeing how much the “poor ole small farmer” was a myth was an eye-opener. Those guys are technologically savvy and banking giant coin.
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I was awfully confused why Rep. Ryan was pushing so hard on “Obamacare” earlier, it seemed to confuse the base.
Now it’s clear as day, VP Ryan was cementing his marathon staying power as the likely VP candidate.
“Now I get it.”
Glad to read your takes on things Jake. Always pithy and provoking for further consideration.
Looks like the VP debate will be fireworks; as much as the Presidential debates.
Although he’s not legally trained, something tells me Ryan’s going to resonate with the base far more than Biden. I’ll be particularly interested in how solidly he can discredit that monumental arrogance in Joe’s plugged “coif.”
Obama had that look of wonderment.. “I wonder if LeBron is going to be on the Dream Team.”
Of course he is!
Yes, it doesn’t hurt that Obama viscerally hates the guy.
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In some ways, I wish Ryan didn’t do the 6 minute video dismantling the health care plan because he’s shown that he can and will be a resourceful opponent. It takes away the opportunity for him to be underestimated.
Kidna like the guy who benches 500 lbs and then enters a competition. You kinda know he’s a strong dude and sandbagging it won’t work.
On the other hand, it’s going to make Obama and Biden really step up and they’ll have to distance themselves from vague “hope and change” stuff and address some real issues with some specifics.
After everyone comes down from the Ryan high remember this: RYAN = RINO
He has voted YEA for every bloated bill since he got elected, look it up. And his signature budget plan does not cut spending, it merely reduces spending. (Also, he scares the bejesus out of retired folks). Regretably, it looks like four more years of 0, but that’s what happens when the ‘Pubs chicken out and go the Big Government route. But at least with 0 we go to hell faster, I mean who really wants to die of a thousand cuts?
Stick with action movies , Sylvester.
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If Romney wins, the shit-storm begins for the poor, the middle class, the elderly, retirees, women, veterans, and foreign policy. Other than that, we’ll be fine…………yeah, right.
Look around you, we’ve already got the highest poverty rates since the Depression, thanks to your guy. How do you think we amend that? More of the same?
Or maybe we install a guy who is known for his turnaround acuity?
All I ask is that you use your head this time around…
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Use my head? Let’s see …
Ryan’s budget calls for zero tax on capital gains. Romney and his pals make the majority of their money via capital gains.
The middle class makes most of its income as salary, and you think they should vote for Romney/Ryan.
I’m guessing that you are just talking your book.
Nice, I’m just talking simple economics. I’m for a flat income tax, and if that means we have to impose the same rate on capital gains, in order to get you “settled” on the fairness score, so be it.
But the fact is the economy does not grow without investment, and by defintition, investment comes from savings — otherwise known as deferred gratification. And, outside of certain IRA/401k agreements, savings come from AFTER TAX DOLLARS.
Following?
If a growing economy neccessitates the re-investment of said after tax dollars (in other words, dollars that have already been taxed when earned), instead of seeing them spent on frivolities, then one would necessarily try to incent the “pleasure-deferred” behavior by lowering any additional taxes on gains made FOR TAKING RISK and trying to increase the capital pool for the betterment of oneself and society.
In the final analysis, a person has a choice to either spend his after tax dollars in immediate gratification activities (or necessities), incurring perhaps a 5-10% (or 0%!) sales tax, let’s say…. OR he can take that after tax money and put it to work for some period of time; thereby not only delaying consumption or other gratification that would come if there were no savings/investment decision, but risking that gratification event altogether! By that logic, I don’t think you can justify charging a capital gains rate that’s any higher than a sales tax.
Thoughts?
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If it were up to me, I would aim to minimize corporate and personal income taxes . I would replace them in the long term with consumption taxes and infrastructure fees. In other words, we pay for what we use. Savings and capital growth are desirable and thus should not be penalized by taxes.
Having said that, I would do this only after fiscal stability is achieved. Short term, I would reform the tax code to eliminate loopholes, and slash corporate welfare. (Agriculture subsidies are criminal IMHO.) For individuals, I would means test every single entitlement. I would increase tax rates and apply an across the board cutback in government spending with no exemptions for the military.
Stop the bleeding and then heal the patient.
Sorry guys, not so fast. The end result: Obama 347, Romney 191. Place your bets now. Make them big and bold. The game is on.
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all break for Obama. Even Wisconsin stays blue.
Portman would have put Ohio in the Romney column, and Pa. and Fla. would have still been in play. Priorities USA Action will release a 2012 “Thelma and Louise”. I can’t wait for the response. The Obama is a socialist won’t work well against the Medicare and Medicaid argument. They’ll need some new ideas.
This should be the most exciting and entertaining election since Bush-Clinton #1. I doubt anyone will make any “read my lips” blunders. Get out the popcorn.
BTW, 2016: Bush-Clinton rematch. Jeb vs. Hillary. Be there.
Hey Jake, nice to see you back. Still busy?
Very busy. Obama is not only a socialist, but the “Peter” he is robbing right now is Medicare, to pay “Paul,” now known widely as Obamacare.
Ryan is going to rip Obamacare’s arms out ‘tha socket,” and beat Obama and Biden over the head with it until every senior in America is lined up in heady anticipation of launching those two dangerous clowns to Neptune.
Again, it’s a six minute video, and I know attention spans are short around here. Therein, however, lies the winkling out of Senor Obama’s tenure as President, should you care to observe.
Portman?? ROFL! I’m a political junky and I barely know the guy.
Ryan has the same “rock star” persona as Obama, but with the brains and extemporaneous agility that make him fit for the job, rather than the puppetocracy. Portman is another zero, like Tim Pawlenty.
FWIW, I think they found some skeletons on Rubio..
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Jake, My reasoning was that Portman didn’t add anything nationally, but would give Romney Ohio. and leave Florida and Penn. in play. The Ryan pick is great to energize the base, and increases his odds on the “get out the vote” strategy. From the Ryan pick, he seems to have given up on playing the close swing states and is betting that Obama will not be able to energize his voters.
It really depends which way you look at this election — Get out the vote vs. winning the three remaining swing states. The polls I’m reading show very few undecided voters left. That’s why I’m leaning towards an election that hinges on those 3 swing states.
I agree on Rubio. I think he would have been much stronger nationally than Portman, and would have given Romney 29 electoral votes vs. 18 for Ohio. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rubio cleans up whatever he needs to and would make a good running mate for Jeb in 2016 (given the Romney does not win this year of course.)
We’ve got a McMahon vs. Shays rematch tomorrow. If Shays can beat her, I think he can beat Murphy and the R’s will pick up another seat in the Senate. McMahon is already running ads against Murphy, so she may run regardless of the tomorrow’s primary results. I think if she runs against Murphy, it will be very close, but she loses.
Time to get back to my trading. Be well.
FYI — Regarding our discussion on Ryan helping or hurting Ohio…
And Pennsylvania, btw.
Remember, he’s a Miami of Ohio grad and a devout Catholic. That could be enough to get the votes he needs in those two crucial states.
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Could be. The Bishops came out hard against his budget though. It will be interesting to see how it sorts out on the Catholic side. I agree that Ryan neutralizes any Mormon “issues” that the ticket may have had in the Midwest and the South.
The Bishops know where the Enemy is living now, I think.
It’s a shame it took them so long to figure out that thing about what belonged to Caeser and what belonged to God.
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Here’s my bet:
Romney wins, you no longer comment on IBC.
Obammy wins, i no longer comment.
Bet?
Sold. It’s a deal.
Bet.
the ticket is too white to win … Ryan is ok as far as professional politicians go, but he won’t get psychopath romney over the hump …
“Psychopath?” Are you off your meds?
Listen, I tell you this sincerely… one of my good friends worked for Romney very early in his career. He’s now a big mover in the PE community.
To this day, he’d take a bullet for Romney. So whatever you may say about his policies, etc, that’s fine. But the guy has a near flawless character, from a personal standpoint.
Now your guy, on the other hand…
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no exaggeration, flawless?
Hitler, Stalin, Saddam Hussein, Criminal X,Y or Z all had humans who’d take bullets for them.
Romney cares not a whit for his fellow human unless they can help him in his ascent to power & profit. However, I would not say this about Ryan, he’s a decent man. Romney, anything but.
Bruce, you don’t know crap about Romney. You are merely spouting false witness to protect your egregiously vulnerable candidate.
Your comparing Romney to mass murdering socialist monsters is beneath you, Bruce. Really, get a grip.
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To recognize psychopaths, as such, is fundamentally difficult for the average joe, because Psychopathy is frequently associated with nearly perfect acting-skills … and Romney, while a shitty actor, is an actor nonetheless. He may have fooled you, or perhaps you want to be fooled &/or are just turning blind your Republican eye, I however can see right through that selfish-centered power- and profit-mongerer.
Romney would figuratively & literally walk over dead corpses without hesitation.
Tell us, oh insightful one, who is fooled by the charlatan billy meier?
You know your credibility is less than zero, no?
Nuttier than a bowl of squirrel poop.
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Romney just blew up the republican party for 4 more years. There is no way the American people will vote far right in November. This is simple math and a basic strategy ignored due to desparation. Now, everyone knows how insecure Romney feels about his chances. I was hoping for a horse race to the finish line instead of a 13 point blow out. This move was just plain nuts. Guess Romney wanted to take attention and criticism off of his own shortcomings and shift it to Ryan. Paul Ryan??? Laughable. Ummm…yes we can!
LOL.
Exibit A — Quoth the Lung Sac “Obama-4-more!”
13 points, eh? ROFLMAO!!
Maybe you should give Biden some debating lessons?
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I still love you, only less must together of the persistent. People follow the brave, not a high. Do you believe there is a feeling, a lifetime won’t be lost to time. A man is not a gender, but a kind of responsibility. Take care of the family can’t afford the family a lot of, can’t responsible for love, mulberry even if his generation man body, but is not a sport man. Man, what is the bear? Not haggle over every ounce, but to embrace. Not rude and unreasonable, but take care of. Not hollow promise, but do it. mulberry purses-accessories outlet Can let the side person peace happy, is the man. Happiness is repeated. With every day people like themselves together, talking on the phone, travel, repeat a commitment and dream, listen to him once 28 mention your childhood, every year on the same day and celebrating mulberry his birthday, the annual valentine’s day, Christmas, New Year’s eve, and he spend. Even quarrel is repeated, in order to some trivial quarrel, then cold war, crazy miss each other, and finally.