Improve your aim!
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I don’t have a whole lot of commentary time tonight but I wanted to get this in because a number of you were fretting about today’s action. True, we did some pretty nasty technical damage on the price of gold, but not yet enough to convince me to run screaming. That’s doubly true with the faithful indicators of The PPT signalling oversold on the GLD trading vehicle.
I am seeing a lot of oversold conditions in the miners as well, as many of you are probably uncomfortably aware. This is not the time to be sinking your dough into highly leveraged bets, as the dollar can get away from us very quickly with an index break towards $80.00 and an escape from the double top condition we had just a week ago. That means those of you messing with AGQ better steer clear… y’hear?
Gold itself — the commodity — has been very good about respecting it’s 34-week EMA ever since the 2009 lows when the precious started making its epic comeback. I believe that weekly line will hold again this week, but beware — we may get a tail on this candle before Friday (note the other tail penatrations of the line in the historical chart below), and you may want to lighten into tomorrow’s expected bounce as a result. Here’s the chart:
Remember, it’s better to be safe than sorry at this juncture. Don’t be a hero and let’s play small(er) ball while we figure out which way the dollar is going to resolve itself.
My best to you all. Tomorrow, I will endeavor to get a short economic piece out challenging Mr. Henry Blodget’s latest brainstorm declaring that it’s not actually entrepreneurs who create jobs… but “demand.” (NOTE: as of right now, the post has been taken down or the link is dead… I think Blodgett realized what an ass he’d made of himself, but let’s give it to tomorrow to see what’s what).
I can retell the tale tomorrow, but suffice it to say that if this is the latest liberal shibboleth being trotted out to attack classical economics (and basic common sense), it needs to be nipped in its exceedingly innumerate bud.
Best to you all.
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jake,thanks.my agq is hurtin,but i can still walk with one less toe,for now.
so ur thoughts on the fed today? im thinkin unemloyment should keep response even, but if they anounce something big?
Five to two, they do nothing, but murmer “support” of former policy.
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When your indicators look like total shit, just move on to the 34 week ma!
I’m always looking at the long term. That’s the basis of the bull market thesis.
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Looks like we are getting the flush, fellahs, thanks to our Eurotard brethren.
Bernank speaks this afternoon, and I may remain in cement until then. If you are in AGQ or others, you might consider shaving.
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Hi Jakes, Are you still thinking AG will get low 20th with your longer view ? I”m still holding. Thanks.
I think it will break to new highs, actually. Perhaps not until Spring thaw, however.
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Thanks. I will hold strong, expecting good news is coming in early spring about new development in Mexico.
News does not drive these things, asset values do. If the price of silver goes up — or the market anticipates it will be up — AG will be up.
It’s really pretty simple.
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Interesting… gold and silver hanging in there, despite the dollar over $80 by a tad.
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Jake,
Euro is rallying big again this morning but you are right, Gold and Silver has major support around these levels. The Euro is overbought here right therefore GLD/SLV has to bounce hard right?????
Sorry I meant the Dollar is rallying…
That’s the idea. GLD was oversold as of yesterday, shoulc be cycling up here, at least short term.
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GLD lost your weekly 34 EMA for the first time since early 2009
Do or die time before Friday, after that the party is probably over
At least for a while anyways, need to see <152 to really break the chart
Agreud.
That’s why I think we need to wait til end of the week. If you inspect that chart, there are tails all over the 34-week EMA.
If we break that shit, however, I might scratch all the way down to my physical.
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Jake!
*sigh… I hope it does not come to that. My naive guts leave me musing that the 150ema has gotten too much attention and a break there, then bounce could be in order. I recall Mr. G writing about large buying into liquidity breaks, though I believe he is sidelined here, safely in cash.
I bot/added a little to CEF & PHYS today, probably a little early. Thank you for the updates today sir, hope this finds you well!
btw — did you see that albatross PAAS green?! 😉
I did. It was the one hint of emerald in my pile.
Perhaps trade bait?
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Senator, you never go completely to cash, do you? I recall that even during the tough times (eg. Jan-March ’10 timeframe comes to mind), you still retain a percentage of your shares, no? So, I’m assuming that you did not go completely to cash today? Thanks and have a good evening:)
I didn’t sell a damn thing today.
How’s that?
😉
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That’s good enough, Senator! Sorry for the hyper tone. I made myself laugh when I re-read it…I guess that’s what happens when I’m multi-tasking trying to look after 2 kids doing homework while starting dinner preparations while running to the computer to jot down a post lol!
I’m not fully invested, either. About 60%, as I only started really putting stuff on about two weeks back.
As Moober how many times I’ve been two weeks early.
I’ve gotta seek help for that problem… 😉
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I think it’s time to start buying GLD and GDX, small, epsecially if we get any dip tomorrow.
Together Draghi and Bernanke have closed out the silver-gold bull for now. Or at least, so it seems. Maybe I’m going to incur massive losses, but let’s see how it plays out. I think AGQ has support around 50 ish.
Interesting that some of my PM dealers are charging gold premium, but letting go of silver at about spot.
Your update is much appreciated. Merci Jake.
Gifts to family and friends? CHECK.
Good post. Read the Blodget piece and the one from the VC that sparked it. *face palm*
I will do a response on that. I just can’t let it stand that even a quasi-“business” blog is posting such absolute nonsense.
Kids might be reading that shinola!
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Glad you said “quasi-business” blog about SAI. I stopped reading after the 4th or 5th really insightful “Company A is screwed” or “Click this 15 slide deck to help us maximize revenue” piece. I only saw that article because it was linked from one about the original VC. I honestly don’t get where either is coming from.
Gold is famous for false breakdowns but this action in GLD and SLV is getting really nasty
Even the 200MA is gone now
Thursday and Friday better see some serious buying
just went 50% in GDX, NUGT, and DGP here, will deploy 25% and 25% in the next two days
Ballsy. See my next post. I’m going to wait at least til margin calling time this afternoon.
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