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Gobble, Gobble, fellow pilgrims! Are you concerned about your precious metal stores and stocks this close to Turkey Day? Even though The PPT has assured us that these are the stuffing days for such metals coursing into year end?
Well, I can’t say that I don’t blame you, given the vexatious day we had yesterday, where everyone and their brother decided that liquidating hard commodities was the answer to Europe’s considerable paper problem. On the other hand, with a relatively high Blees rating (a relative ratio of commerical trader sentiment over the last 18 months) of above 50% (at 74 as of last reading), I can’t see traders going against historic trends hear and blowing out of these positions in defiance of the Turkey gods.
In other words, I think yesterday was something of a panic day. Do tell, right?
But panic days are what we are here for… especially when they are delivered toward the end of the year and a mere week before Tryptophanatic Day.
So far the Bernank seems to be playing along, as the dollar is currently down below my target of $77.80 as revealed on Fly’s blog yesterday. If it stays down there, I believe we will have a chance for a sustainable bounce in play on all the PM’s and even the much beknighted silver that so many were moaning about here yesterday.
Before I show you my silver chart, I want to remind you that it was junior golds that I thought would provide the biggest bang for the buck here. That should still be here, and outside the old favorites of SLW and EXK, I would probably avoid getting too crazy about silver miners until we see a rebound, and then a re-test of yesterday’s levels.
That being said, I note that AGQ weekly is still well above it’s long term trend line. And while yesterday I thought perhaps we’d get a test of that line, I think we may even open higher this morning (above $60), and if so, I might actually begin adding to my 50% positions here. The stops are pretty obvious on the weeklies, but you may not want to set them below the trend line if you are more of a short time type. In that case, I’d recommend a stop below $60, and a “wait and see” going into next week.
Keep in mind that Friday after Tryptophan Awareness Day is often one of the best PM days of the year (although not always long lived). Here’s my latest on “fast money” AGQ.
Given the oversold levels of AG and even of the more stable $HUI (we missed the 200 day EMA ($552) by a hair yesterday, and may test today, but we did bounce right at the reliable 34 week EMA as well), I will be looking to add to a number of positions today.
Keep in mind a number of caveats…
1) If the dollar index (DX-Y) breaks back above $78, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace on the long term weekly, I will take these adds off
2) If the $HUI breaks below it’s 200-day EMA (approximately $552), I will take these trades off.
3) If the POG breaks below $1700, I will take these trades off.
Again, I am still not convinced that any of the above events means our traditional Santa Claus Gold Mitzvah is off for this year. In fact, it probably just means the rebound will be pushed into next week.
That said, one must take some precautions, and those levels are good ones to pay attention to.
Perhaps we will revisit this weekend, if I don’t have 12 kid parties and 15 lacrosse/field hockey/Quick Recall games to attend.
My best to you.
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Please let me know if that video and the AGQ chart showed up… everything is blocked here, so I am kind of flying blind.
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scroll over the blank spot and click on it. it comes up.
Charts missing
FIELD HOCKEY!?!?
Yes, I have a daughter too… actually, she is playing volleyball this year, and I’m hoping she never goes back to field hockey.
I’m sure at some level that game is interesting, but not at the fifth grade level, I assure you.
The whistles are enough to drive you nuts.
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LOL, I guess there’s something good to be said about girl’s basketball, no?
I couldn’t convince her to play beyond the sixth grade, although she had a wicked free throw shot that would put 99.9% of NBA players to shame.
I am not a big fan of girl’s basketball at any level, but it’s like watching the Knicks compared to enduring a pre-high school field hockey game.
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If you click on the empty black square, the chart loads.
Thank you… road posting is a biatch.
PLEASE CLICK ON THE BLACK BOX TO SEE THE CHART.
My apologies.
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Jake,
just throwing this out.
Could the Santa Claus Gold Mitzvah rally be the rally we saw in October? Afterall, seasonally speaking October tends to be the worst month of the year, yet we manged to pump out the best month in 70 odd years.
Just thinkning that wehn everyone expects something, usually Mr. Market delivers a surprise.
Your thoughts?
Anything’s possible, but I think gold rallies in these months due to global trends, not necessarily “Western” ones.
Of course, all bets were off in 2008, but I’m thinking that may have been an “exception year.”
Here’s the deal… they HAVE to print. The only question is when?
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Thanks Jake
Thanks Jake. I knew I was a bit late with my $EXK adds earlier this week, but yesterday’s action just seemed bizarro. The Eurotards are going down, whether they want to or not, and I cannot see how that’s going to be bearish for PM’s. Even with a stronger Dollar against the Euro, I think they’re going to be ok.
If I don’t get a chance to later in the week, I hope you and your family have a great Thanksgiving. We’re getting most of the family together form around the country this year. It should be fun.
I hope you have power restored for that, or else it will another “Real Pilgrim” T-day!
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Thanks. We were only out for 4 days. I’m extremely disappointed in my fellow Nutmeggers. Most of them have become vocal whiners expecting either the government or the local utility company to take care of ALL of their storm related needs.
Hence, “the blue state” of CT.
When you elected that guy who bullshitted about his Viet Nam service, I knew it was all over.
Sad when Lieberman is the best thing you’ve got going.
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Thanks Jake,
The chart works fine when you click it.
So the missus and I were invited by friends to attend the Heritage Foundation dinner with Donald Rumsfeld in Nashville. A couple of hundred folks filled tables to hear some words from the HF and some remarks from Rumsfeld. A pleasant evening with mostly like minded folks listening to a polarizing man give his historical accounts of working along side Reagan, Thatcher and Bush among others. Truly interesting to hear a man who was there when historical moments, good and bad, were being made. Outside of the political arena the man is quite affable.
Unfortunately the Occupiers found out about the event. They protested outside the hotel on some public land that was their right to stand on. At the beginning of the Rumsfeld talk a woman got up and began yelling “war criminal” at the man. She was unceremoniously hustled out. Unnerving but probably shouldn’t have been unexpected. 5 minutes later a young woman behind us, another young woman and a bearded radical dude began screaming the same shit. They were thrown out on their asses. The hotel security was quick to establish control, Rumsfeld HUGE bodyguards were not playing around and when we left the discussion there were cops standing outside the door to the conference room. Overhead them say that the hotel security took care of the problem before they were needed. I was happy to note the cops holding conservative brochures from Heritage.
I wish I was more aware because one of the young woman came up to our table looking for a seat and I heard her say briefly “oh this is reserved”. I didn’t think much about it. Nor do I know how she got in without a badge….or did she steal one? I didn’t notice. These people are radical and dangerous. I will take notice and be more aware of what’s going on.
It made my wife extremely nervous. These Occupiers are bottom line rude and obnoxious. Asshats like this sully whatever goodwill they think they have through the complicit media and leftist political support.
If you do not agree with Rumsfeld that is more than fine. But there are honorable ways to show your displeasure. These idiots pissed a lot of people off and did nothing to advance whatever cause they are squawking about.
Where is Patton and MacArthur when you need them.
Who will rescue us from the dreadful dangers we cannot see and do not understand?
Rummy?
http://goo.gl/N5ZDP
Thanks for the update Jake.
I played field hockey back in the 1970s when Title 9 was just emerging and playing girls sports was all the rage. My own daughter plays soccer, ice hockey and lacrosse. Field hockey is still a beloved sport in the mid-eastern states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, too.
As for the PMs, I’d almost prefer to see that vicious drop we endured in September in the $HUI. I feel like it will eventually come and the 200 hasn’t been very reliable of late, no?
Jake, thanks for the post. Really appreciate reading your thoughts, especially since my own thoughts are currently a bit muddled by sleep deprivation and the ramifications of the nasty flu bug that is currently hitting the 5-year-old and the almost 3-year-old!
Oy, sorry to hear.
It gets better.
My youngest just turned six. He is almost a full fledged human now.
Not that the urchins are not cute, but….
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Jake, buy sell or hold or wait on mine finders ?
thanks !
I’ve been watching MFN dive too. Mr. Partridge, also known as Old Turkey, has suggested with the higher costs of production and rising oil that PM singles might best be avoided although you could certainly buy and put a tight leash on it.
MFN?
Pah.
A serial dog.
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i like MFN and RGLD
What I am finding curious is this all cash buyout offer of $9.30 a share for JAG from Shandong of China. I watched the market makers run this stock to $8.50 in pre-market. Since I can’t trade until 8 a.m., I missed out trying to sell for a bigger gain than what I eventually sold during regular market hours, because once 8 a.m. hit, the market makers pulled the rug out pretty fast on the retail people trying to sell.
Anyway, Thursday’s drop was bought as we now wait for JAG to explore its options. Seems to me this would be a slam dunk buy right now, and yet the stock has yet to break $8.
Worth a dice roll, at least.
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Yeah, I expected a leg up, not down, last week on silver. The two-four week lag behind gold has been 2011’s pattern.
I was surprised too. Every time it gets near $ 30, I visit one of my dealers.
This week should def. pick up. Great explanation on the rationale Jake.
Just picked up a satchel of AG @14.14
no balls no babies.
(And since i’ve got one showing up in 3 months, i need AG to get some balls.)
I’m right there with you having one show up in 3 mos. When’s the big day? We are 3/6/12.
and my first…
my first, too (gulp).
2/18/12
Pink or Blue?
We’ll find out in Feb.
Old school.
I gotz some more GSS and XG m’self.
“And may your first child, be a masculine child.”
LB
Luca, you sure you should be playing with money in your medicated state?
I have to worry if you’re still buying the GSS shite…
Comfortably numb.
added little AG and GDX…
perhaps I am nuts??