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I have my 5-year old to thank for giving me the Derby winner on Saturday. He liked the name “Animal Kingdom,” so we played him across the board. I must say, however, that I attribute my choosing the second place winner, Nehro, in the exacta box parley (paid $330) to my chance conversation with Nehro’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, in the Dallas airport after last year’s Derby, which ended with my decisive judgement that he was “a good guy.”
So you can see, there’s a lot of science that goes into these Derby picks. It’s quite amazing. But truthfully, Animal Kingdom is a noble beast, second only perhaps to officially endorsed iBC show horse Banned, who won decisively the day prior. Read more about Animal Kingdom here, and cheer him on for the Preakness, won’t you?
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For those of you who hoovered silver with abandon last week, God bless, am I with you. We will know relatively quickly whether or not we’ve made a wise move “buying the blood.” My aim is to dump a lot of the AGQ I purchased last week on a break back above $40/oz. or perhaps earlier if the situation warrants. I think there’s significant chance of a retest of last week’s lows, however, before that happens. In fact, I would welcome a successful retest as a sign of a more healthy bottoming from this recent artificially created sell-off.
But let’s be limpidly lucid about what happened last week. There were a lot of cowboys knocked off their horses. Whether that was a move by the big boys to clear the decks for further ascent — or at least for proper physical delivery — will be apparent by the end of this month, and perhaps even by options expiration day.
In the meantime, I stand with some dry powder left, but a much smaller amount than at the beginning of last week — less than 10% of my total portfolio. It’s unlikely I’ll be purchasing anything new unless I see something just ridiculously mispriced in relation to the rest of the market.
Let’s see what Monday — and the London bankers — brings us. Carry on.
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I am shooting bears dead with silver bullets, even though it isn’t required.
Werebears, perhaps?
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Thanks again Jake for your analysis. Waited all day for it, but it was worth the wait.
It looks like we’re all in the same boat. I’m just hoping the dollar start down soon and we’re not yet in the D-wave.
I am going to close out my AGQ position pretty quickly here. I bought in too early, and she is a beast indeed. Looks like i will hit breakeven today, where I will at least take some off the table.
I’ve got plenty of other gold and silver miners now, and i’ll keep them in place. AGQ was more an effort to pick a bottom, and i missed. I will keep a bit of it to see if we can take $39+, but not too much. I’d rather try to pick some up on a retest, as you’ve pointed out.
I am amazed at how hard it was to buy $EXK at 8.43 (my last buy), it seemed that there was no bottom in sight. I would gladly buy more today at 8.43.
You got lucky. At some point, every stock that drops has that “relief rally”. You are lucky it didnt fall another 20%. what you did was luck, not brains.
My new ANV purchase is performing much weaker than everything else.
No diss, but I think you may be the kiss of death.
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LOL wtfpwn
Its possible. I could be marking the end of a decade long PM bull market.
I think AGQ will be back to 240+ before June.
280+
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/gizmodo/2009/04/26051202.jpg
Who is this Toby Connor dude?
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-gold-rate-gold-prices-commodity/5/9/2011/id/34404?from=ameritrade&camp=syndication&medium=portals
He’s a partner with Gary Savage. They come out with the same ideas.
Toby is Gary’s partner? 😮
That probably gave the wrong impression… a business partner.
Toby Connor is Gary Savage…who knows what his real name is….
True!
No, I’ve actually met Gary and as improbable as it may seem, that’s his real name!
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Anyone with two names is either hiding something, an actor or writes books…
Read that thing and it certainly looks like Gary’s stuff. Maybe that’s his marketing partner?
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I think Gary writes under that moniker as well. 8)
As I understand it Gary’s business partner is John Townsend, the TSI trader.. Gary writes under the nom de plume “Toby Conner” for his goldscents.com site.. I could be wrong on the former, but that’s been my best take on it.
sorry typing fast and a few typos..
*Connor & http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/
@Jakegint, what is your next silver target, 40 or 44?
Mr. Gint,
Once again I give you much thanks for assisting in the upward and onward mobility of my trading accounts. I know nothing about PM’s nor do I think I will ever figure them out, but when you are buying so am I. Having an experienced guide on this journey does make it easier to buy the blood. If I were on my own I would probably never dabble in the PM’s.
Must admit I got very lucky and sold out of most of my big silver positions the Friday before the major margin hike. I started nibbling last Thursday and was back to my full allotments at the close last Friday. I am pretty far down on my AAU position but it is so small I can afford to give it all the time it needs.
In the famous words of Ice Cube, “Today was a good day.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sprott-launches-physical-silver-mutual-fund-will-likely-soak-much-marginal-silver-inventory
Silver bears are about to find themselves in the streets of Pamplona.
AGQ hasn’t even retraced 23% of the down move. SLV just barely touched the 23.6, and /SI just a touch over. Silver futures just a tad over. Nearly every oscillator study shows this bounce has soom room to run. AGQ calls are back from the grave today…
You mock me sir, but i am now outpacing the S&P by a broad measure. If your thesis on these PM plays hold any water at all, i may double my account this year and retire to a life of slovenly laziness…ideally, funded off the largess of our government.
I want a new Gint blog. I have become addicted.
Mars
Did you mention Glencore?
from gotgold report:
Why is the new Glencore IPO important? Well, on top of the CME being on the warpath on silver; on top of the Goldman “get-out-of-commods” call before May, there was also a giant new IPO sucking between 50 and 60 billion dollars out of the commodity space so its major European index tracking players could lay in a stock of the big new public commodity behemoth.
Portfolio managers have to sell something in order to raise funds. When it is a large amount to raise (in this case an extremely large amount) they have to sell quite a bit. Is it just us, or isn’t that a lot of negative liquidity for a relatively small sector to eat in a single month?
No wonder the miners have been “mailing it in” on the charts lately. Seasonal pressure included, and U.S. exchange interference aside, there is a giant vacuum of liquidity hitting the commodity equity space on multiple fronts. It’s a wonder the miners haven’t been crushed by all of it, isn’t it?
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/05/got-gold-report-may-correction-on-schedule-.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Fggr+%28Got+Gold+Report%29
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