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This end of the year is something else, no? You can feel the bull flows as they pulse through the market, and yet, they are driven much like all else, by the destruction of the dollar.
A destruction that is — seemingly — ahead even of my own most draconian schedule. But I must have proof, I must have evidence before I send my portfolio over the cliff of hard asset liquidity.
Some of this action seems just a bit too pat for my tastes, and I am most assuredly nervous, and buttering my rye bread three times before slapping my slices together with fresh arugula, holland tomatoes, and thinly sliced roast mutton. I will eat many samiches before making a definitive move.
I note that the dollar is sliding off a cliff again, and gold is heading to new highs whilst silver has already achieved them ($30.77 as of this sitting).
Yet the $HUI (my favored “Gold Bug Index“), and more important, my silver stocks still lag their early ecember highs. True PAAS is acting a champion and EXK is inching towards old highs (though selling off this afternoon). SLW, too, is not close to $42, and this gives me pause.
I have decided to leave it up to the dollar, and these two charts (weekly and daily, respectively) will give you all the information you need. The lines of resistance on the weekly are quite clear, and brought to you by Signorelli Fibonacci himself. These weekly fibs tend to hold up quite well, which doesn’t bode happy news for our greenback:
Like the 200 week EMA in the above weekly chart, the daily provides us with an adequate signal — the 50 day EMA — which should prove conclusive given the already oversold condition in the daily:
If we get a rebound, I will hold onto my hedges on my PM positions. If we see further declines — and especially through these resistance levels — I shall be taking them off, and most likely piling back in aggressively.
That is all, really.
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I commanded EXK to sell off and it did.
It may not be so compliant tomorrow, unfortch.
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that’s the spirit!
Thank you Mr. Gint.. I find these current waters so very tricky to navigate, always appreciate your experienced thoughts – especially at this inflection point. I’ve been a busy bee happily trimming (and never selling all, save JAG today) hopefully I will be able to reload (and more) in a graceful manner! Thanks again and be well..
Thanks for the update Jake.
Fly,
You didn’t command EXK to selloff, you only sold 75% of your holdings acc. to your blog. That’s not an order…JG gave a nice piece that this can be a gut wrenching hold! What is with you???
Down to 79.46, plowing time yet?
Silver not really responding and neither are the stocks. Better to be late than early here.
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The dollar plunge in my mind is a move to revalue the yuan, while inflating the equity markets here. China will begrudgingly accept their new consumer culture, because they just bought ours. We go lower for a quarter and then sentiment will change as QE works.. My 2011 prediction.
“QE works”
I’m rooting for you,
but betting against you.
Silver hitting recent highs; SLW dropping.
That won’t last
Jake,
Failed cycle on the dollar. Still too early? Doesn’t seem right to start adding back here but we could see the slv and gld runaway. I added some EXK back to my core position. Part of me thinks we still dip so that part won’t add any more.
happy new year and thanks.
That’s why I’m waiting, even now. Dollar seems to keep flirting with a failed cycle, but then recovers. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very much core long, as I will be no matter what happens.
I just haven’t folded my hedges yet.
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Mr. Gint, many thanks for your incisive and astute commentary this year. Happy New Year to you and yours.
Yours as well, Hammer.
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Pulling up most of my hedges here. I am now 75% long
I will ditch the rest and go 100% long on Jan 2 if gold breaks to new highs.
“It’s a bull market, Mr. Partridge.”
Agreud. But I can afford to wait.
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Endeavor Mining EDV:TO is my number one pick for ’11. Not EXK, although that was my pick for ’10, that among others, including First Majestic Silver, which recently got listed on the US under AG and is up over 300% If you can get them before they list on the US stock exchange…well, it’s good.
Not bragging, not too much anyway, but wanted to bring EDV to ya’ll’s attn.
I didn’t see if you ever responded to my questions on TBT, Jake. I really never get on the internet anymore, a tleast not to the forum,s except for these kind of days.
’10 was a very bad year for me, excluding the stock thing, which was great in some picks but very bad in some other picks. Still up by 30%, but should have been way more, so you know, you carry that shame.
30% is many standard deviations above the mean return, especially these days. You should be proud.
Sorry about the other stuff. And agree w. you on the pre-listing stuff, but I’d stick w. the .PK, as I don’t like to hold securities in other currencies. Remember, we are trying to draft off the depreciation of the dollar here.
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Hey, thank you. I am kind of proud. Kind of disgusted with myself, too. LOL Such is the biz, I guess.
Take a look at EXK’s little brother:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FVITF.PK+Interactive#chart2:symbol=fvitf.pk;range=1y;compare=exk;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Bona Fortuna!
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I’m gonna follow it for a while. Thank you for bringing it up. Ma,n it seems really familiar.
edited to add: to you Teahouse, not the mafia vid or whatever jake posted. LOL
Yeah, I dipped my toe back in but held off going too crazy.
off to drink some good bubbles.
We are trying the Prosecca this year, but that’s the extent of it. Nice quiet night at home w. some relatives. We did go and see a movie — “Unstoppable” — which is almost out of the theaters entirely. I’ve been meaning to see it for over a month, and I think we caught it at the last movie theater playing it in town.
Highly, highly recommended. Save for a brief bit of typical Hollywood unintentionally funny corporation bashing (and police bashing too, go figure), it was an hour and a half of pure entertainment.
Denzel rocks.
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HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Holy mackeral, Dick Clark, wtf??
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Happy New Years, Comrades!
😉
Good comment from that stat sheet:
Wow. This post almost made me want to go back in time and restore the Soviet Union where I spent first 38 years of my life. Call yourself comrades or anything you want but don’t give me more socialism. Using stock market return as yardstick to prove that policies work and that one president is better than other is plain wrong. Can you say that Bush 41 was a better president than Clinton because stock market grew more? Was Comrade Brezhnev a good communist ruler because the quality of life did improve under his rule. And you know what, I bet the fastest economic growth the Soviet Union and Russia for that matter have ever experienced was under Comrade Stalin. Was he good? He started at a very low point and used all the wrong ideas and methods. But if we only judged by economic growth we should have said that he was the best. If we used the healthcare as measure, Comrade Castro would have been the winner. Not considering the starting point and ways the success was achieved is just wrong. For a fuller picture you should have the unemployment chart included as well.
As far as Joe the Plumber is concerned, does he even have a 401K? Even if he had one, he might have spent it because he does not have a job. But if he has the savings account he got zero and will be getting zero for a long time. He was robbed for you to enjoy the stock market gains. Here is where we need to start talking socialism. Exact same thing was happening in the Soviet Union. The actual prosperity, including big Swiss bank accounts, was only among the party elite, their families and close friends.
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Happy New Year Jake.
Happy New Year JG,
You and Le Fly are awesome…Thank you so much for your insights and posts. I look forward to your missives everyday. Best wishes to you and yours! Spaceba and Nazdarovya!
Nasdarovya to you too!
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late, but better than not – HAPPY NEW YEAR and THANK YOU!