iBankCoin
Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Jacksonian Deflation

Fight the Power
Fight the Power

‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

MON — $90.89 (+0.89)
 
NRP — $21.76 (-4.89%)

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

_____________________________

A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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21 comments

  1. alphadawgg

    Good luck with the gold stocks.

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  2. JakeGint

    Hmmm…. was that a sarcastic “good luck,” or legit?

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  3. chanci

    I like the idea of the double silver etf! I like DXO, too.

    Which brings me to my question of what is your take on oil in the not too distant future? (a few months out)

    Do you think it is a good time to be accumulating oil stocks? I just can’t for the life of me see how it is not going up, but don’t see a lot of people talking about it on the PPT.

    Thanks!

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  4. JakeGint

    I’ve got some Earls (OXY, PBR, DXO, a little ERX), and have toyed with putting OXY (one of my long term holds) into the Jacksonian Core. However, I just don’t trust Earl yet, especially after this recent run up.

    I think it will mirror the market for the near future. Is that mealy-mouthed enough of an answer for you?

    ___

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  5. chanci

    No, not mealy mouthed at all. You answered my question.
    Thanks!

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  6. Kel

    Jake,

    TBT resets every night and so over time it erodes your principal even if interest rates are unchanged. It can be a good trading tool but unless you have a strong trend it will gradually take your money.

    As for oil, I might suggest looking at SINOPEC (SHI) and Petrobras (PBR). They combine strong developing market oil majors with a built in short US dollar play. Near term they will take a hit like everything else though.

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  7. JakeGint

    Kel — I’m well aware of the downside of TBT, and have discussed it upon its nomination to the “Core.”

    As it’s a TLT hedge, it’s not usually as volatile as the FAS/FAZ etc, double etf’s and therefore, I consider its “erosion” acceptable given the long term direction of TLT.

    I’ve owned it since $35, so, no complaints thus far.

    As for PBR, you’ll note from the comment two above yours that I do own it, and like it. Not sure if it’s reliable enough to be a Core holding with Lulu at the helm, however.

    I will check out SHI, thanks.

    __________

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  8. alphadawgg

    Jake,
    I sincerely hope you make money in gold stocks.

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  9. mrkcbill

    Wow– on the video.

    Jake, great posting, are you on done with your 1st month yet? Do you ever ask yourself how Fly posts 5 times a day?

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  10. JakeGint

    Dawg- thanks. Had to check since you still have DZZ in your model portfolio. 😉

    ___

    KC- I can’t even remember when I started but I think the contest was about a month back.

    Fly has a writer’s curse- he is compelled to write.

    ___

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  11. j0sh1ngU

    NXG going to have resistance in that 6.7-6.8 range. but ultimately i think after consolidation it will break through

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  12. Cuervos Laugh

    Jake –

    I doubt you have much to worry about from Lula. He’s more market friendly than his neighbour to the north.

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  13. JakeGint

    Sometimes these ironies happen in Latin America. Castro, for instance, started out being supported by most of the world as a “democratic freedom fighter.”

    That said, I can give Lula the benefit of the doubt up an until he joins the Chavez Coalition.

    _______

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  14. JakeGint

    ALERT: $HUI bounced right off it’s 200 day MA average this morning for the second time, and is proceeding to take off.

    Mount your chargers, Jacksonians!

    ____________

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  15. CavemanForecaster

    The SVA play sure didn’t work out, so I am out. Not quite yet but I will be.

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  16. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Jake are you originally for the South?

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  17. JakeGint

    Gaps —

    Are you asking am I originally from the South?

    No.

    _______

    CF — yeah, I’m still holding for shits and giggles. People are still getting this flu, you know.

    _______

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  18. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Hmm who on here is a Southern brothern? I long for the days when I lived in the South, sweet tea, fried chicken, barbecue, gravy and potato salad. Oh those were the days.

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  19. E8

    Jake,

    Have you had a chance to look at Mag Silver yet?

    Attached is link to largest goldmine coming on stream not owned by a major:

    http://www.centamin.com/admin/uploads/MBL_Finance_Facility_02_Apr_09.pdf

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  20. Fook

    Adding to TBT here… right at 48-49 support.

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  21. JakeGint

    E8 — looks like a capped opportunity, because of the buyout bid currently out there.

    Could run, I guess, but I dunno if I’d mess w. it. Not very liquid either.

    And your other Egyptian play is too early stage for me.

    _______

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