… this is ridiculous.
I can’t get aggressive on my trades if the Vix doesn’t pick up in activity. Normally, a triple digit down day would translate into a 5-10% move on the Vix. Right now, people just don’t want to sell their stocks, no matter what the news!
Maybe if volume is low enough we can get the Vix back to the 60s. I still have next week as a possible place to see that. But right now, I’m bearish on the Vix, and therefore, “bullish” on this market. As long as the Vix melts down, it will be tough for the bears. Bears prefer it quick and dirty. Will I buy into this “bullish market”? Hardly…
My advice for now is to keep all positions at about 1/3 to what you normally play, either swing or daytrade. If you daytrade, then start off 1/3, and keep adding increments… bailout at breakeven. You see, when you daytrade, you want the broader overall market in your favor. Take for example yeterday’s bullish move in energy… it’s gains were capped because the overall market was down. That really sucked. Anyway, at least that gives us a hint that if the market goes up the next day, then I would at least expect energy to move up (hence, my swing long in GMXR). Above all… if there’s nothing there, then do nothing! Or atleast just build a list of stock behaviors that standout.
Right now, ignore the Vix, and continue to use price/volume indicators to specific sectors then to specific stocks. For example, yesterday’s plays were in solars and shippers. Both had big volume, and you could have selected almost any active stock in the sector. Solars were a short yesterday, and shippers were fadable on market weakness.
Anyway, I’m not saying the Vix can’t get back above 60, but it probably will have a hard time getting there. Right now, the Vix is offering me nothing! So, out it goes. Maybe closer to quarterly expirations. Believe me… I’m hoping I’m wrong and that the Vix can get back up there asap, but it’s okay, I can wait.
Aloha to my new Twitteraddictatious new friends! Roll call… …. wazzup SorenMacbeth, founder of StockTwits and soon father to be! Welcom CJBull, to iBankMermaids. Shout out to johnsontrading for T2108. See yall on the streets! Kicking it with kung fu with TradingPanda. Buenos dias gawed!
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CJBull / Carolyn Ferguson | |
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bradchristo | |
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dsong02 | |
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gawed / Luis Fer Mtz Funes | |
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sorenmacbeth / Soren Macbeth .
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Inv_Underground | |
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johnsontrading |
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TradingPanda / Carlo Maffatt | |
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Loanzen |
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at least the celtics still win, when Im losing.
GIO
Tough loss last night, huh? Im going to email you something, check your inbox.
Haha! Jerk. I’m glad they lost that game… they played from the first quarter like they already won.
At least GMXR, APEI, and MELI are up!
HK, CLR, GG, up…
commodities are rebounding.
HK! wooo hoooo!
I got my limits set. have fun w/ this market!
You looking to short this sudden spike down on the Vix? Check out the five minute chart. Came out of nowhere.
Huge VIX spike. What’s your play here Gio?
VIX getting to your low 50’s mr Gio…….
Hi guys, thanks for the update. I just got back from the gym… today was obviously not a good day to daytrade so I left the computer.
As for the Vix… it did have some interesting activity on the 5-minute 5-hour charts. However, that is not really a “huge spike.” … I’m looking for something over 12%. Right now, Vix is still flat with only 4% moves at most! But, as you’ve notice, the mini-spike on the Vix today did leave to a 100 point intraday sell off. cool huh.
Anyway, either wait for a real spike, or double spike for higher probabilities.
As for the “low 50s”, I adjusted that level to the high 40s. I want to be even more selective with my entry points to short. Apparently, Bears are weak right now.
A lot of over-trading going on in StockTwits. All I see is people shorting POT, MOS, and playing DRYS … what the horse! The Vix is flat, therefore the useless tug-of-war action going on.
Like I said before… don’t be a silly Bear. Wait for complacency to attack! Right now a falling or flat Vix favors the bulls. Stick to the high volume leaders and buy those on the dips, while keeping a list of low volume rallies to short.
Everyone out there has an opinion. and chances are they are idiotic…
My picture didn’t load! now that comment above makes no sense.
How was your workout GIO…? I just got back from a brutal one myself. Missed you today but I hear what you’re saying. I followed Cajun and bought a little more DXO. I agree with your VIX synopsis and think right now the bulls have the edge.
Workout was okay (i haven’t worked out 6am since college), i didnt want to go all out cuz get pickup basketball tonight.. Someone on twitter recommended a book for workouts so I’m heading to borders to pick it up. I think you and RC are in the correct sector. After OPEC’s meeting, if energy drops I will add to my current energy longs… if energy goes up, I will add. I didn’t know DXO was $2! When did that happen? Glad to see you making money on the market h511.
1 share DXO = 1 gallon of gas
thanks for the hola! 😀
I really can’t recommend any powerful longs right now, as long as I see leaders like AXYS just crumble and fall like yesterday. sheez. although we are in a “confirmed rally”, watch out for Thunder Thursday.
My volatility model doesn’t agree with the idea of a 60 level VIX next year cause it says we get there this year again with a monster spike starting today and intensifying into the end of December.
In fact, I’m going to pound on the futures today, just to kick things off, so I recommend pulling out your list of shorts and then pulling the trigger. I’ll even tell you exactly when I’m going to pound on them and I just posted that to my BLOG. Anybody who thinks the market can’t be “timed” “predicted” etc. just doesn’t know how to do it…
Big-P