Just wanted to alert you guys that we had our first spike DOWN on the Vix this morning on the 2-week chart, about 12%. Hmmm… naturally, of course, since it is election day. Now the Vix is trading at the mid 40s. Another spike down would signal a good opportunity to get short. However, a 2-month chart signals a double spike already occurred. Remember, the more volatile the Vix, the more better it is to look at a smaller , hence, the 2-week would be a better indicator.
Anyway, the spike down only tells me we are getting near overly complacent levels. Take partial profits, or start hedging some longs.
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What’s up with this stock?
TNH is up 20%, HLF is down 20%
Gio,
Do you see volume totals still low overall for today? Not as low as yesterday’s putrid totals but well below average? They look low here via Telechart but it is always hard to tell intraday. All I see moving here are solars, coal, and oil stocks, at least on my watchlists. The strong stocks of the past week are pulling back or putting in reversals. I find that weird. I would agree therefore that things are possibly getting complacent here and the possibility of a reversal exists. That is, unless we are going to have a rally like August-October of 2007, where there was virtually no volume the whole time but stocks still went up. Hard to play those rallies though. I have a feeling that is what we may be in for.
Mac,
Thanks for stopping by. I’m bullish on commodities in November, but the Vix this “low” is telling me to start taking profits or not enter new longs. A lot of low quality stocks are up on low volume.
Man, I remember that dumb rally from August-October! It really hurt the technical traders. It also led to THE selloff of the decade. I hope that doesn’t happen again.
I originally had Dow to +10k on this rally, but seeing how fast the Vix got crushed makes me think twice. People forget, that the reversal to the upside occurred when the Vix was north of 80. That’s almost 50% away in less than 2 weeks. sheez.
Pinoy wants me to buy solars on a dip, but I’m like, “what dip?” We haven’t had one for about a week! Oh well, lets watch this market rip higher.
-gio-
tnh is divy run and Cramer pump….
kudos to you on a great place ya have here…:)
I hate TNH. and Cramer. the rates on TNH cannot be sustained.
Thanks mrs. buttons. wait, you talking about Hawaii or iBC? it was raining this morning, but now its nice outside.
I knew I should have bought PEIX for $1 yesterday. Grrrrrr.
Took some electoral profits in GG.
http://www.thehawaiitrader.com/2008/11/trade-gg.html
Gio,
Really enjoy your insight and writing. Regarding volumn I noticed that on IBD’s “stocks on the move” the highest volumn shown is 123% of average. Seems like the MONEY may not be participating.
Your thoughts?
thanks bullPreacher man… i am a HUGE FAN of IBD. I trade in and out the IBD100, and i at least read the front page everyday. make sure you check out my post when i list the IBD100 with PPT scores for trading ideas.
anyway, as for volume, its pathetic, that’s why i said to fade the solars on a morning bounce. there’s a lot of ugly stocks up on low volume, like PEIX, POT (barf), EXM etc. and as Mac brought out (another IBD and Telechart user), the volume is not impressive, while past leaders are reversing. this is not a good rally to buy.
who knows, the money might come tomorrow? we’ll see. right now, its more effective to fade stuff or play gaps.