I’m hoping for a gap up at the open on some okay volume in solar sector based on the anti-coal rumors. I am expecting solars to be sold on the election news as the whole sector yesterday was up. If this play does not develop, no day trades should be made.
If you’re in it for the long term, I would suggest taking partial profits in the event of sector-wide profit taking, or hedging by shorting FSLR. Actually, if you’re in it for the long term, then I would take any profit until your solar stock gets back over the 200 day. FSLR, the leader has a long time for that to happen.
There is a possibility of a breakout on solars, but I doubt that as FSLR is approaching a lot of resistance points. So, I think fading the sector has a higher probability.
Finally, if the market decides to blast off 500 points, then don’t short anything.
Fade-ables:
FSLR, SOL, JASO (careful!), CSIQ, LDK, ENER
Another fade-worthy sector is the shippers, but they’ve been so beat up, I’ll just have to watch. Use DryShips Inc. [[drys]] as your correlation stock. TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]]
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agree but if these names does not drop fast enough to re-test the lows…then buy on the dip will be the better play
Thanks THT for the tips. I hold sol and I am hoping to take some profits. I think we might get a short-squeeze in sol and there are other news from yesterday that might still play part for sol to climb more heights today.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=Bcom&Date=20081103&ID=9342780&Symbol=SOL
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=Bcom&Date=20081103&ID=9342781&Symbol=SOL
pinoy: i don’t think they’ll retest the lows today; so far I got that morning spike that i predicted. all i need is a dow+fslr reversal… if not, then the sellers are at the ballot box.
solars up HUGE! but volume not impressive yet… JASO, FSLR, ENER, CSIQ, SOL, LDK
FSLR test @ 176.60 or 189.38 for those playing the breakout or breakdowns.
MPT: SOL is the LAST solar I would short on a fade. You’re right on the short interest ratio. LDK looks like a better fade at the moment.
Slick Willie frogmarching like an indicted Alaskan Senator!
Up 19%???!!
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Sorry Slick Willie = SLW.
(And other silver and golds look good too, GG, RGLD, SIL.)
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went long GG yesterday. I was wondering what the heck you were talking about. SLW.
and what is “frogmarching”?
Got my first red candle on FSLR… but that Dow is on viagra. anyway, lets fade CSIQ for fun.
FSLR breaking out here and DOW still strong. tough to short here.
CSIQ about to breakout.
btw… welcome to my tab PinoyTrader. I’m a big fan.
What do you think of DRYS as a short?
>>and what is “frogmarching”?
May be marching(hopping with legs spread wide open) like a frog? 😉
Thanks tht for taking time and posting your thoughts in real-time. This has been really useful to me lately.
pie eater: i’d short DRYS, or probably better, DSX at the end of the day (low volume melt up). but, I can’t fight this rally… maybe on the next Vix spike down.
Jake always comes up with the most interesting verbs.
You guys must not read the liberal papers.
“Frog marching” is a term that’s become beloved by liberal pundits, as it’s a literal depiction of a perp-walk — when an indicted official/criminal is led by “authorities,” handcuffed, before the cameras in that Soviet show trial way that libs love to see (at least when it’s a GOP indictee).
I can’t believe you missed the years of Frank Rich (et al) columns praying for Cheney to be “frog marched” out of the White House…
Here’s an LA Times piece featuring the term in its header.
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Oh, I get it. I learned something today. Frogs… shoot, when i think of frogs i think of Muppets.
How about this… my longs are San Francisco parade marching again.
Lol… “Slick Willie frogmarching like an indicted Alaskan Senator!”
… now i get it! hehe. sorry, i’m not a politics guy.
thanks Gio. I like your methodology also..very logical and counter-intuitive. Very informative writing as well.
I will not be chasing these solars at these levels and short might be a better risk/reward trade at these levels but if’ i’m position trading, i would wait for these to move down a bit and I might start nibling for LONG.
I tried to short dsx but there aren’t any shares available right now – looks like this might also use some short squeeze some day.
Pare, 😉 …if I recall, you’re a programmer? was it quantum trading? if so, that explains why you’re a position trader- and that strategy makes a lot of sense to me. In fact, I have long-solars as a longterm investment for young investors that have the time to leverage them on this volatile sector. But do they have the patience?
anyway, for now, the play is to short solars on the news, but you can count on me buying solars with you on the next pullback!
Let me know when you start buying.
BTW… thanks for calling me “intuitive”! My original blog was called “Intuitive Traders”, named after Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) which I discovered as a long over 2-years ago.
http://www.thehawaiitrader.com/2006/04/intuitive-surgical-cuts-up-analysts.html
Just covered my massive day trade short in CSIQ!! Lots of room down, but I road this thing over 8% so I’ll take it.
Hope yall faded with me!
-gio-
“ruler of 72”
gio,
you are mentioning this csiq trade aftre the fact. u were just flip flopping this morning on the idea of fading the solar. put up a trade with conviction like RC or Senor.
I agree. It’s too early to get out. Money will blow out of these stocks like shit through a goose in the next few days. I rode the long solar elevator up for over a week, now I’m going to ride the short solar elevator up for at least a few days.
Worst case scenario, solars continue to climb till Thanksgiving, then the holiday season gears up and everyone remembers how broke they and everyone else are and solar drops.
aristotle… i didnt flip flop. i said it was hard to short while the Dow moved from 250-300. The setup was when Dow reverses + FSLR reverses.
in my experience, it does little to post day trades as a blog post… waste time and space. if you’re interested, i do post all my swing trades over at thehawaiitrader.com