Always fade morning pumps. How many times do I have to tell you? I cleaned out everything with exception to my BABA common and calls and then sat back for 10 minutes and bought two more stocks — one of which was the upside ETF for gold NUGT.
It should be noted, I was not hedged into today due oversold signals for both SPY and QQQ flashing in Stocklabs. That was the only reason why I had confidence into the morning. After the morning jump, I was on my own and opted for safety. While in safety, I took the opportune to look at many of the gold concerns. I found their technicals to be different, busting loose even, so I took a position.
I have several ideas into the afternoon session, but none of which involves me losing any money. I am +125bps now, more than double yesterdays loss and now +3.4% for October. I am positioned exactly where I want to be, in several carefully chosen position, making money and creating wealth carefully.
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Market inputs actually look pretty good here. Precious metals are the only thing ramping. But they have no direct pressure on costs.
Energy and food are all lower. And treasury yields are down across the board.
Still inflation forecasts are coming in hot and I expect yields to go higher from here.
Delta pilot died in-flight within the last 10 days. The co-pilot said he just suddenly died. The co-pilot also shared that the pilot said he’d just gotten his 2nd C_____ s___ a few days earlier. Probably nothing.
A couple thousand Southwest flights cancelled due to bad weather. Fortunately, other airlines had good weather.
Southwest CEO Gary Kelly “I’ve never been in favor of corporations imposing that kind of a mandate,” “But the executive order from Jim B mandates that all federal contractors have a ____ mandate.
Sick outs? nah. Probably just a coincidence.
Peters says it’s probably the vaccine mandates that Southwest just laid down for all personnel
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/10/13/fact-check-vaccinated-delta-pilot-didnt-die-mid-flight/8436344002/
I think that either the bond market went nuts or the Fed is buying the long end.
The only thing that would make sense from this curve as it heads toward inversion is that a recession is on the way. With the government ready to drop another 3t on us? I don’t see it. But if it turns out tomorrow that the Fed hasn’t been buying the 30 year lately I’ll sell my TMV. Down about 3% on it.
I think at a minimum we will have an earnings recession. Higher wages, health insurance and materials will eat into profits and not all of it can be passed off to consumers. And of course, there are the supply chain issues so many have low inventories and this will be reflected in their sales.
Perhaps gold sees that the Fed is in a box and really can’t raise rates. Gold is now banging up against resistance but the gold equities are holding up well and started buliding a base and advancing two weeks ago when everybody hated gold (and most still do).
Interesting times.
If the Fed doesn’t let rates rise, in addition to them becoming the only buyer of treasuries (hugely inflationary, expand monetary supply into this) then also speculators are going to take away the worst lesson of the Fed Put and oil goes over $100, gasoline goes to $5, pretty much all other commodities start sprinting and we still go down.
They need to get demand in line with supply. The least (very) painful way to do that is let rates rise. But like you, I’ve seen these mad men work for 10 long years and they are all monsters so who knows.
Glad/assume you are feeling better. As a breakthrough case any recommendations for others?
Yes, I feel better (thanks) and all symptoms went away about 4 weeks ago. It was pretty mild overall with low grade fever, dry cough, and fatigue. Pretty sure based on the timeline I caught it on a plane coming back from visiting the Oregon grandkids.
Only advice I would have is drink liquids, get plenty of rest and take Vitamin C & D, and Zinc every other day for prevention.
If Covid wants you it will find you no matter the precautions.
Interestingy, my wife was tested and came out negative.