iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,324 Blog Posts

The Close Has Been Crashed; Prepare for a Monstrous Morning

The market opened swell and then heaved and tipped over and trickled down all day and into the final hours let loose to the downside — capsizing those who bought the open. The mood is grim and the Dow off by 250. No one likes the tape and it’s just more of the same — bullshit served up daily accentuated by a bull market in cryptos — leaving more and more people to give up on equities in search of warmer climes.

Ten Thousand suns cannot warm up the earth now, as we’re tethered to the turning of the leaves of October — colder weather and worse markets. We are almost assured destruction now and not much else can get in the way of it. I traded tight and narrow today, opting for only a few positions at a time. By the end of the session, I found myself 15% long SOXS with limited exposure to stocks — a hedged approach — finished at session highs of +145bps.

Le Fly was born to trade in these markets and I look forward to the black out of the sun soon and hell freezing over and all of the plebs who’ve done so well these past few years throw out into the maelstrom and stampeded into the earth and back into dust.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

8 comments

  1. it is showtime

    Fly ‘makes’ infowars

    check
    38:13
    flashed some tits
    https://www.brighteon.com/0f24358e-62d0-4374-932a-512150385eee

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. Mr. Cain Thaler

    https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/uranium-gets-a-boost-from-japan-s-nuclear-sea-change-20211009-p58ykh

    Fucking wankers. I called this shit a decade ago. But instead of just being smart they spent 10 years pretending like national security wasn’t a thing.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. emersonlakepalmer
    emersonlakepalmer

    And a good day to you, too

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. acehood

    Futures up.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. the_wolf

    Oil running for that $100 finish line

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Baselining this off of the 20y, real interest rates are -0.5% right now (per the very generous definition of inflation provided by the Federal Reserve).

    In 2019, real interest on 20y bonds was calculated at about 1%. So to return to normal, we’d need 20y rates to rise 1.5%. That would put them at 3.5% nominal yield.

    This is probably about a 25% selloff of spot prices for new issues and would likely net TBT somewhere around a 75% return.

    Now assuming the same yield curve, 10y bonds would trade to 3.0%. Using that as a marker for stocks, which have earnings yields of 3% today against ~1.5% for 10y, then stocks would selloff at least an earnings yield of 4.5%. That gets you a 50% selloff in stocks, without the yield curve steepening or investors demanding more yield for equities.

    If the 20y goes to 4% you get a 66% selloff in stocks. God help you if it’s more.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Oh yeah and this math doesn’t even touch on the earnings recession we’re about to have.

      Because the same forces killing real interest are also killing corporate bottom lines.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. purdy

    Math? Didn’t know anyone still worshipped that old religion.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"

Leave a Reply