The market opened swell and then heaved and tipped over and trickled down all day and into the final hours let loose to the downside — capsizing those who bought the open. The mood is grim and the Dow off by 250. No one likes the tape and it’s just more of the same — bullshit served up daily accentuated by a bull market in cryptos — leaving more and more people to give up on equities in search of warmer climes.
Ten Thousand suns cannot warm up the earth now, as we’re tethered to the turning of the leaves of October — colder weather and worse markets. We are almost assured destruction now and not much else can get in the way of it. I traded tight and narrow today, opting for only a few positions at a time. By the end of the session, I found myself 15% long SOXS with limited exposure to stocks — a hedged approach — finished at session highs of +145bps.
Le Fly was born to trade in these markets and I look forward to the black out of the sun soon and hell freezing over and all of the plebs who’ve done so well these past few years throw out into the maelstrom and stampeded into the earth and back into dust.
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Fly ‘makes’ infowars
check
38:13
flashed some tits
https://www.brighteon.com/0f24358e-62d0-4374-932a-512150385eee
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/uranium-gets-a-boost-from-japan-s-nuclear-sea-change-20211009-p58ykh
Fucking wankers. I called this shit a decade ago. But instead of just being smart they spent 10 years pretending like national security wasn’t a thing.
And a good day to you, too
Futures up.
Oil running for that $100 finish line
Baselining this off of the 20y, real interest rates are -0.5% right now (per the very generous definition of inflation provided by the Federal Reserve).
In 2019, real interest on 20y bonds was calculated at about 1%. So to return to normal, we’d need 20y rates to rise 1.5%. That would put them at 3.5% nominal yield.
This is probably about a 25% selloff of spot prices for new issues and would likely net TBT somewhere around a 75% return.
Now assuming the same yield curve, 10y bonds would trade to 3.0%. Using that as a marker for stocks, which have earnings yields of 3% today against ~1.5% for 10y, then stocks would selloff at least an earnings yield of 4.5%. That gets you a 50% selloff in stocks, without the yield curve steepening or investors demanding more yield for equities.
If the 20y goes to 4% you get a 66% selloff in stocks. God help you if it’s more.
Oh yeah and this math doesn’t even touch on the earnings recession we’re about to have.
Because the same forces killing real interest are also killing corporate bottom lines.
Math? Didn’t know anyone still worshipped that old religion.