My gains are vacillating between 0.5% and 1%, trading fast and making me nervous. I end up positioning into 10 stocks at a clip and selling 6 of them inside of an hour. The market is bouncing today but it seems volatile and it feels heavy. I am not bold enough to sell it short — especially not on a Stocklabs oversold flag. But if I was to sell short, I would bet against the semis.
I ripped out all of my positions at 9:30 sharp and good thing I did because it was all wrong. I escaped at breakeven and then started my day with a clean slate and big enough balls to trade retarded stocks.
Most of the gains are in mega cap today, with tera caps +0.6%. But the small caps are flat to down and I am sure you see plenty of small ones running — because there is an appetite of risk in the air. However, on the whole, this is NOT a very good tape. Again, the gains are found in short squeezes and social media led retarded plays, like CEI. If you’re trying to invest in small capped growth based on revenues and prospects — good luck with that. This is a ripper market, in for 5% and then out.
As we enter the mid-day hours things will subside but I am certain we’ll see some meaningless moves this afternoon.
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Every morning is sell the rips. Ugly market.
FWIW- probably need to get used to tough and/or ugly markets. Big returns are a thing of the past I fear.
Actually not skeert…this actually makes sense to me.
If the next stimmie is big enough I look for construction, concrete, green power and copper to do somewhat better. If.
I used today’s micro rally to add to my shorts. I have a very high confidence in this angle.
S&P puts, SOXS. Put in a GTC lowball bid for BOIL.
No hedges.
LOL. Down $17.67.
I would look to bet against the oil stocks.
When Crude went below $0 in the futures last Spring everybody and all so called experts said the oil stocks were finished. Back then, the lower oil went, the oil stocks started to creep up giving the “Buy” signal.
Now, the so called experts are calling for the oil stocks to keep climbing. I am sensing the opposite now. The oil stocks are flat to down as the crude futures go up.
Also sniffing around the Gold stocks.The experts hate them but I see some life in the gold stocks as the PMs go down. AEM and NEM are not acting bad at all. Coud be a sign for a turn like it has for the last 40 years.
Yes. I see oil supply catching up soon. Gold miners might be tough. Gold is so psychological and nothing seems to be triggering it.
Good stuff TC. Thanks.
GDX gave up major support on weekly at 31ish. I’d like to see it take out weekly candle high of 32 62 before I shop …so I’ll just continue to suffer with the few miners that I hold.
But real things will matter ….eventually.
I hear ya. NEM needs to claw it’s way above 57 pronto or it’ll be lookin at 40.
You convinced me. I like that NEM setup. Looks bouncy so I bought some. I need some longs.
A tad early on the gold miners IMO. Need to see some panic selling which is likely in the cards. Nevertheless, been legging in slowly to AEM, AGI and NEM. I have stink bids in on several outstanding miners and believe they might get filled when the puke happens which appears likely when gold takes out the crash low of 8/9/21 (hint: silver already took out the low).
I expect bounces along the way but gold at 1666 and silver in the 18’s is still my minimum low prediction. IF that happens, miners will be at least 10% – 20% lower.
Remember: nobody vomits slowly and in low volume.
Thanks for the good thoughts. I’m not piling in. Not quite a half-position.
$NAVI requests to close student loan shop today – definitive agreement shows US Dept of Education loans be transferred to $MMS
10 year yields soar, bulls roasted alive in pleasant afternoon trading.
I noticed that. Very front end being bought but that’s it. Peeps are a little tentative.
The yield curve is inverting a bit (directionally, not absolutely) which sort of makes sense when you know inflation today is atrocious, inflation next year will be bad, but aren’t quite ready to commit to inflation two decades from now.
Yeah…no inversion yet. Shakey market.
I just mean the first derivative is inverted. Forward years / commitments selling off harder. “Inverting”. Nowhere near inverted.
Even though I generally hate all equities here, I bought a little WOR today. They’re an American industrial company that actually makes shit domestically. And their PE ratio is like 5x earnings.
They’re seeing some demand destruction as other subcomponents get trapped overseas and customers cancel or delay projects, but big picture I suspect a political realignment is in the works that will cause businesses thinking they can just milk cheap importa forever to suffer greatly.
Thank you for putting your ideas out here!
My S&P puts are flyin’ up and down like a street hooker’s pants.