iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,324 Blog Posts

Will Credit Fears Re-Emerge?

Yes.

The way these things work follows a strict script.

Stage 1: rumor mill it. Only a few pay attention and cry Chicken Little
Stage 2: It’s happening. Main stream news discusses it incessantly, increasing discussion amongst conspiracy theorist of chicken vs egg current simulation mode.
Stage 3: RESCUED! But not really. But RESCUED. Market short squeezes higher.
Stage 4: Oh no, it’s not over. Panic doubles.
Stage 5: Crisis.
Stage 6: Bailout.
Stage 7: Lift off, pretend it never happened.

I’d say we’re at stage 3 now. I do not have a timeline on when the Chinese debt bubble will re-emerge, but it’s not over.

That being said, we had a strong oversold bounce and we might gap higher again tomorrow, especially since the last 3-4hours of the day was sideways poorly traded slop. I’d bet many a shorts edge-lorded in hoping for some sort of fuckery tonight. I doubt you’ll get that and I doubt the Chinese are eager to create credit drama.

Ergo, we trade higher in the morning.

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11 comments

  1. edge

    If the Fed can’t keep interest rates under control there is a great deal to fear. Even a big one-day move is proof of nothing but not what I wanted to see.
    I expect chop in the next week or two.

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    • edge

      Nice timeline BTW.

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    • dchanko

      If I have to own an interest-bearing version of a currency issued by a country without a functioning legislature ( been that way for a number of years), maybe I want more than ~1.5%

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  2. soupbone

    ‘edge-lorded’? can’t be religious no one here is. where is the ibankcoin dictionary nowdays?

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  3. Mr. Cain Thaler

    I’m not even interested in Enron v2.0. Keep eyes on GDP rolling over while natural gas and crude oil double and triple. While supply lines shut down, market shelves run bare, input commodities are ramping higher and labor shortages keep businesses from fixing the problems.

    People want to talk abput Evergrande because it’s a comfortable problem. We know how to fix this. We know how to paper over it.

    You can’t paper over the supply chain collapsing. You have to live through it to the end to rebuild.

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  4. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Nike revenue miss. NKE shares dealt instant death. -4% so far.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Yet still has a 34x PE ratio. Very smart. Company that sells athletic apparel almost exclusively to men. Spends 100% of its ad revenue antagonizing men, wishing they’d cut their own dicks off. Solid business model here.

      Bright future for NKE.

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  5. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Oh look DE. Great American company. Been around forever. Established business. No hope for major growth. Hmmm…I know, 17x PE ratio!

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  6. roguewave

    What we’ve got going on here, not this week or this month
    but this decade is
    separation of state and money.

    They will not go quietly.

    https://twitter.com/satoshibaggins/status/1440742692703637505?s=20

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