These past few months have turned Le Fly into an austere investor. The back and forth has melded me into steel, iron ingots and my resolve is to survive. I am cognizant of the fact this is NOT a good market by traditional definition, which is even an idiot can bank. I survived today’s FOMC day with +1.4%, in spite of it looking dicey after Powell began talking. My gains shrunk to only 30bps before ramping and I took that opportune to liquidate everything.
I am fixated on ETFs and not really interested in individual stocks unless they are specific to an industry I want exposure to, such as cryptos. If I wanted to play cryptos in stocks I’d buy MARA, RIOT, HIVE, BITF or HUT. I segment stocks and make innumerable lists in order to best pounce on a micro idea. Admittedly, I am still adjusting to the massive amount of data and capabilities inside Stocklabs. It could be said that perhaps my trading could be better with just a laptop and instincts. Truthfully, I never doubted my instincts but I am embarking on something unique with SL — in that I am building systems that can operate on their own and this AI can one day invest money on my behalf — with me being dead.
I liken this to driving a race car for the first time — fast and unusual and it’ll take some time to get used to.
I have three portfolios running now — trading, best ideas, and Quant. The purpose for them is as follows.
Trading: in the moment
Best Ideas: longer term
Quant: Machine learned investing using software
We all are good at times, terrible and great during rare occasions. The market, on a long enough time frame, is conducive with capital gains, providing you’re invested in REAL stocks with larger market caps. I am just looking for others ways of doing this — and my work continues.
100% cash, but a bias for more gains tomorrow.
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DED
‘Even an idiot can bank’ nice. Granted no one touches you at the turns. Nobody.
I think it looks good.
The fed is telling you that they expect that they can quit monetizing next year without market pressure on interest paid by the government, and that in the future markets will buy the deficits at a very low rate. (Historically). That’s good news, providing it’s correct, something you heard here first.
Short term? Market seems indecisive but small caps are showing some strength. Rotation maybe?
I’m about a third cash.
The Fed has a history of being wrong, humans and all. Expect the opposite.
Yes, I’m not ignoring the possibility but it’s a ways off. In the meantime tons o’ cash coming down the pike.
One more thing. Just my opinion but I thought Powell made it clear that policy would be as dovish as necessary.
You’re not mortal, Fly.
Here’s a good read:
http://pragcap.com/blog
The “not so grande things” article.
While you’re reading that you’ll come across the latest market forecast by GMO.
WOW. Just wow.
Man there is a bit here for everyone. Stocks are running but treasuries are blowing out and commodities are soaring.
The dollar is dropping but gold and silver are selling off. And crypto is surging.
Today is all contradictions no clarity.